The changing health impact of vaccines in the COVID-19 pandemic: A modeling study.
COVID-19
CP: Immunology
infectious disease modeling
vaccines
Journal
Cell reports
ISSN: 2211-1247
Titre abrégé: Cell Rep
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 101573691
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
25 04 2023
25 04 2023
Historique:
received:
10
03
2022
revised:
22
09
2022
accepted:
09
03
2023
medline:
4
10
2023
pubmed:
29
3
2023
entrez:
28
3
2023
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Much of the world's population had already been infected with COVID-19 by the time the Omicron variant emerged at the end of 2021, but the scale of the Omicron wave was larger than any that had come before or has happened since, and it left a global imprinting of immunity that changed the COVID-19 landscape. In this study, we simulate a South African population and demonstrate how population-level vaccine effectiveness and efficiency changed over the course of the first 2 years of the pandemic. We then introduce three hypothetical variants and evaluate the impact of vaccines with different properties. We find that variant-chasing vaccines have a narrow window of dominating pre-existing vaccines but that a variant-chasing vaccine strategy may have global utility, depending on the rate of spread from setting to setting. Next-generation vaccines might be able to overcome uncertainty in pace and degree of viral evolution.
Identifiants
pubmed: 36976678
pii: S2211-1247(23)00319-4
doi: 10.1016/j.celrep.2023.112308
pmc: PMC10015104
pii:
doi:
Substances chimiques
Vaccines
0
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
112308Informations de copyright
Copyright © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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