Modelling the impact and cost-effectiveness of non-governmental organizations on HIV and HCV transmission among people who inject drugs in Ukraine.

People who inject drugs (PWID) in Ukraine have high prevalences of HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV). Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) provide PWID with needles/syringes, condoms, HIV/HCV testing and linkage to opioid agonist treatment (OAT) and antiretroviral therapy (ART). We estimated their impact and cost-effectiveness among PWID. A dynamic HIV and HCV transmission model among PWID was calibrated using data from four national PWID surveys (2011-2017). The model assumed 37-49% coverage of NGOs among community PWID, with NGO contact reducing injecting risk and increasing condom use and recruitment onto OAT and ART. We estimated the historic (1997-2021) and future (2022-2030, compared to no NGO activities from 2022) impact of NGOs in terms of the proportion of HIV/HCV infections averted and changes in HIV/HCV incidence. We estimated the future impact of scaling-up NGOs to 80% coverage with/without scale-up in OAT (5-20%) and ART (64-81%). We estimated the cost per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted of current NGO provision over 2022-2041 compared to NGO activities stopping over 2022-2026, but restarting after that till 2041. We assumed average unit costs of US$80-90 per person-year of NGO contact for PWID. With existing coverage levels of NGOs, the model projects that NGOs have averted 20.0% (95% credibility interval: 13.3-26.1) and 9.6% (5.1-14.1) of new HIV and HCV infections among PWID over 1997-2021, respectively, and will avert 31.8% (19.6-39.9) and 13.7% (7.5-18.1) of HIV and HCV infections over 2022-2030. With NGO scale-up, HIV and HCV incidence will decrease by 54.2% (43.3-63.8) and 30.2% (20.5-36.2) over 2022-2030, or 86.7% (82.9-89.3) and 39.8% (31.4-44.8) if OAT and ART are also scaled-up. Without NGOs, HIV and HCV incidence will increase by 51.6% (23.6-76.3) and 13.4% (4.8-21.9) over 2022-2030. Current NGO provision over 2022-2026 will avert 102,736 (77,611-137,512) DALYs when tracked until 2041 (discounted 3% annually), and cost US$912 (702-1222) per DALY averted; cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of US$1548/DALY averted (0.5xGDP). NGO activities have a crucial preventative impact among PWID in Ukraine which should be scaled-up to help achieve HIV and HCV elimination. Disruptions could have a substantial detrimental impact.

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© 2023 The Authors. Journal of the International AIDS Society published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the International AIDS Society.