Future number of people with diagnosed type 1 diabetes in Germany until 2040: an analysis based on claims data.
chronic disease
diabetes mellitus, type 1
epidemiology
incidence
Journal
BMJ open diabetes research & care
ISSN: 2052-4897
Titre abrégé: BMJ Open Diabetes Res Care
Pays: England
ID NLM: 101641391
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
04 2023
04 2023
Historique:
received:
29
09
2022
accepted:
24
03
2023
medline:
10
4
2023
entrez:
6
4
2023
pubmed:
7
4
2023
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
We aim to project the number of people with diagnosed type 1 diabetes in Germany between 2010 and 2040. We first estimate the age-specific and sex-specific incidence and prevalence of type 1 diabetes in Germany in 2010 using data from 65 million insurees of the German statutory health insurance. Then, we use the illness-death model to project the prevalence of type 1 diabetes until 2040. We alter the incidence and mortality underlying the illness-death model in several scenarios to explore the impact of possible temporal trends on the number of people with type 1 diabetes. Applying the prevalence from 2010 to the official population projections of Germany's Federal Statistical Office yields a total number of 252 000 people with type 1 diabetes in Germany in 2040 (+1% compared with 2010). Incorporating different annual trends of the incidence and mortality in the projection model results in a future number of people with type 1 diabetes between 292 000 (+18%) and 327 000 (+32%). For the first time in Germany, we provide estimates for the incidence, prevalence, and number of people with diagnosed type 1 diabetes for the whole German population between 2010 and 2040. The relative increase of the people with type 1 diabetes ranges from 1% to 32% in 2040 compared with 2010. The projected results are mainly influenced by temporal trends in the incidence. Ignoring these trends, that is, applying a constant prevalence to population projections, probably underestimates future chronic disease numbers.
Identifiants
pubmed: 37024151
pii: 11/2/e003156
doi: 10.1136/bmjdrc-2022-003156
pmc: PMC10083786
pii:
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Informations de copyright
© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2023. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
Competing interests: None declared.
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