The public health implications of the cost-of-living crisis: outlining mechanisms and modelling consequences.

The UK, and other high-income countries, are experiencing substantial increases in living costs. Several overlapping and intersecting economic crises threaten physical and mental health in the immediate and longer term. Policy responses may buffer against the worst effects (e.g. welfare support) or further undermine health (e.g. austerity). We explore fundamental causes underpinning the cost-of-living crisis, examine potential pathways by which the crisis could impact population health and use a case study to model potential impacts of one aspect of the crisis on a specific health outcome. Our modelling illustrates how policy approaches can substantially protect health and avoid exacerbating health inequalities. Targeting support at vulnerable households is likely to protect health most effectively. The current crisis is likely to be the first of many in era of political and climate uncertainty. More refined integrated economic and health modelling has the potential to inform policy integration, or 'health in all policies'.

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© 2023 The Authors.

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PB, RT, DK and SVK acknowledge funding from the 10.13039/501100000265Medical Research Council (MC_UU_00022/2) and 10.13039/100012095Scottish Government 10.13039/501100000589Chief Scientist Office (SPHSU17 and SPHSU20). RT is funded by the 10.13039/100010269Wellcome Trust (218105/Z/19/Z). DK and SVK are funded by the 10.13039/501100000781European Research Council (949582). SVK additionally acknowledges funding from a 10.13039/100003186NRS Senior Clinical Fellowship (SCAF/15/02). SVK is a Public Health Champion for Understanding Society. PM acknowledges funding from the 10.13039/501100000265Medical Research Council (MC_UU_00022/5 and MR/S037578/2) and 10.13039/100012095Scottish Government 10.13039/501100000589Chief Scientist Office (SPHSU20). GM acknowledges consultancy fees from the 10.13039/100004423World Health Organization. The authors declare no other competing interests.