Natural history of adult spinal deformity: how do patients with suboptimal surgical outcomes fare relative to nonoperative counterparts?

Management of adult spinal deformity (ASD) has increasingly favored operative intervention; however, the incidence of complications and reoperations is high, and patients may fail to achieve idealized postsurgical results. This study compared health-related quality of life (HRQOL) metrics between patients with suboptimal surgical outcomes and those who underwent nonoperative management as a proxy for the natural history (NH) of ASD. ASD patients with 2-year data were included. Patients who were offered surgery but declined were considered nonoperative (i.e., NH) patients. Operative patients with suboptimal outcome (SOp)-defined as any reoperation, major complication, or ≥ 2 severe Scoliosis Research Society (SRS)-Schwab modifiers at follow-up-were selected for comparison. Propensity score matching (PSM) on the basis of baseline age, deformity, SRS-22 Total, and Charlson Comorbidity Index score was used to match the groups. ANCOVA and stepwise logistic regression analysis were used to assess outcomes between groups at 2 years. In total, 441 patients were included (267 SOp and 174 NH patients). After PSM, 142 patients remained (71 SOp 71 and 71 NH patients). At baseline, the SOp and NH groups had similar demographic characteristics, HRQOL, and deformity (all p > 0.05). At 2 years, ANCOVA determined that NH patients had worse deformity as measured with sagittal vertical axis (36.7 mm vs 21.3 mm, p = 0.025), mismatch between pelvic incidence and lumbar lordosis (11.9° vs 2.9°, p < 0.001), and pelvic tilt (PT) (23.1° vs 20.7°, p = 0.019). The adjusted regression analysis found that SOp patients had higher odds of reaching the minimal clinically important differences in Oswestry Disability Index score (OR [95% CI] 4.5 [1.7-11.5], p = 0.002), SRS-22 Activity (OR [95% CI] 3.2 [1.5-6.8], p = 0.002), SRS-22 Pain (OR [95% CI] 2.8 [1.4-5.9], p = 0.005), and SRS-22 Total (OR [95% CI] 11.0 [3.5-34.4], p < 0.001). Operative patients with SOp still experience greater improvements in deformity and HRQOL relative to the progressive radiographic and functional deterioration associated with the NH of ASD. The NH of nonoperative management should be accounted for when weighing the risks and benefits of operative intervention for ASD.