Increasing dominance of Indian Ocean variability impacts Australian wheat yields.
Journal
Nature food
ISSN: 2662-1355
Titre abrégé: Nat Food
Pays: England
ID NLM: 101761102
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
10 2022
10 2022
Historique:
received:
20
02
2022
accepted:
08
09
2022
medline:
1
5
2023
pubmed:
29
4
2023
entrez:
28
4
2023
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
The relationships between crop productivity and climate variability drivers are often assumed to be stationary over time. However, this may not be true in a warming climate. Here we use a crop model and a machine learning algorithm to demonstrate the changing impacts of climate drivers on wheat productivity in Australia. We find that, from the end of the nineteenth century to the 1980s, wheat productivity was mainly subject to the impacts of the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Since the 1990s, the impacts from the El Niño Southern Oscillation have been decreasing, but those from the Indian Ocean Dipole have been increasing. The warming climate has brought more occurrences of positive Indian Ocean Dipole events, resulting in severe yield reductions in recent decades. Our findings highlight the need to adapt seasonal forecasting to the changing impacts of climate variability to inform the management of climate-induced yield losses.
Identifiants
pubmed: 37117884
doi: 10.1038/s43016-022-00613-9
pii: 10.1038/s43016-022-00613-9
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
862-870Informations de copyright
© 2022. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
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