Sources of uncertainty for wheat yield projections under future climate are site-specific.
Journal
Nature food
ISSN: 2662-1355
Titre abrégé: Nat Food
Pays: England
ID NLM: 101761102
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Nov 2020
Nov 2020
Historique:
received:
12
03
2020
accepted:
09
10
2020
medline:
1
11
2020
pubmed:
1
11
2020
entrez:
2
5
2023
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Understanding sources of uncertainty in climate-crop modelling is critical for informing adaptation strategies for cropping systems. An understanding of the major sources of uncertainty in yield change is needed to develop strategies to reduce the total uncertainty. Here, we simulated rain-fed wheat cropping at four representative locations in China and Australia using eight crop models, 32 global climate models (GCMs) and two climate downscaling methods, to investigate sources of uncertainty in yield response to climate change. We partitioned the total uncertainty into sources caused by GCMs, crop models, climate scenarios and the interactions between these three. Generally, the contributions to uncertainty were broadly similar in the two downscaling methods. The dominant source of uncertainty is GCMs in Australia, whereas in China it is crop models. This difference is largely due to uncertainty in GCM-projected future rainfall change across locations. Our findings highlight the site-specific sources of uncertainty, which should be one step towards understanding uncertainties for more robust climate-crop modelling.
Identifiants
pubmed: 37128032
doi: 10.1038/s43016-020-00181-w
pii: 10.1038/s43016-020-00181-w
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
720-728Subventions
Organisme : Grains Research and Development Corporation (Grains Research & Development Corporation)
ID : CMI 105498
Informations de copyright
© 2020. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
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