A complex systems model of breast cancer etiology: The Paradigm II Model.
Journal
PloS one
ISSN: 1932-6203
Titre abrégé: PLoS One
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 101285081
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
2023
2023
Historique:
received:
15
01
2021
accepted:
24
02
2023
medline:
22
5
2023
pubmed:
19
5
2023
entrez:
19
5
2023
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Complex systems models of breast cancer have previously focused on prediction of prognosis and clinical events for individual women. There is a need for understanding breast cancer at the population level for public health decision-making, for identifying gaps in epidemiologic knowledge and for the education of the public as to the complexity of this most common of cancers. We developed an agent-based model of breast cancer for the women of the state of California using data from the U.S. Census, the California Health Interview Survey, the California Cancer Registry, the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and the literature. The model was implemented in the Julia programming language and R computing environment. The Paradigm II model development followed a transdisciplinary process with expertise from multiple relevant disciplinary experts from genetics to epidemiology and sociology with the goal of exploring both upstream determinants at the population level and pathophysiologic etiologic factors at the biologic level. The resulting model reproduces in a reasonable manner the overall age-specific incidence curve for the years 2008-2012 and incidence and relative risks due to specific risk factors such as BRCA1, polygenic risk, alcohol consumption, hormone therapy, breastfeeding, oral contraceptive use and scenarios for environmental toxin exposures. The Paradigm II model illustrates the role of multiple etiologic factors in breast cancer from domains of biology, behavior and the environment. The value of the model is in providing a virtual laboratory to evaluate a wide range of potential interventions into the social, environmental and behavioral determinants of breast cancer at the population level.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
Complex systems models of breast cancer have previously focused on prediction of prognosis and clinical events for individual women. There is a need for understanding breast cancer at the population level for public health decision-making, for identifying gaps in epidemiologic knowledge and for the education of the public as to the complexity of this most common of cancers.
METHODS AND FINDINGS
We developed an agent-based model of breast cancer for the women of the state of California using data from the U.S. Census, the California Health Interview Survey, the California Cancer Registry, the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and the literature. The model was implemented in the Julia programming language and R computing environment. The Paradigm II model development followed a transdisciplinary process with expertise from multiple relevant disciplinary experts from genetics to epidemiology and sociology with the goal of exploring both upstream determinants at the population level and pathophysiologic etiologic factors at the biologic level. The resulting model reproduces in a reasonable manner the overall age-specific incidence curve for the years 2008-2012 and incidence and relative risks due to specific risk factors such as BRCA1, polygenic risk, alcohol consumption, hormone therapy, breastfeeding, oral contraceptive use and scenarios for environmental toxin exposures.
CONCLUSIONS
The Paradigm II model illustrates the role of multiple etiologic factors in breast cancer from domains of biology, behavior and the environment. The value of the model is in providing a virtual laboratory to evaluate a wide range of potential interventions into the social, environmental and behavioral determinants of breast cancer at the population level.
Identifiants
pubmed: 37205649
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0282878
pii: PONE-D-21-01507
pmc: PMC10198497
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
e0282878Informations de copyright
Copyright: This is an open access article, free of all copyright, and may be freely reproduced, distributed, transmitted, modified, built upon, or otherwise used by anyone for any lawful purpose. The work is made available under the Creative Commons CC0 public domain dedication.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
No authors have competing interests.
Références
J Natl Cancer Inst. 1996 Mar 20;88(6):359-64
pubmed: 8609645
Breast Cancer Res Treat. 2012 Nov;136(1):267-75
pubmed: 23053646
Behav Med. 2000 Fall;26(3):101-15
pubmed: 11209591
Ann Intern Med. 2019 Jan 1;170(1):22-30
pubmed: 30534999
CMAJ. 1992 Nov 15;147(10):1459-76
pubmed: 1423087
Breast Cancer Res Treat. 2014 Apr;144(3):479-502
pubmed: 24615497
J Natl Cancer Inst. 2005 Nov 2;97(21):1601-8
pubmed: 16264180
Contraception. 1996 Sep;54(3 Suppl):1S-106S
pubmed: 8899264
Transl Behav Med. 2012 Dec 1;2(4):415-430
pubmed: 23483588
Breast Cancer Res. 2011;13(6):223
pubmed: 22114898
Int J Epidemiol. 2006 Jun;35(3):515-9
pubmed: 16415326
Nat Rev Cancer. 2007 Dec;7(12):937-48
pubmed: 18034184
J Natl Cancer Inst. 1989 Dec 20;81(24):1879-86
pubmed: 2593165
Breast Cancer Res. 2010;12(6):R97
pubmed: 21087468
Online J Public Health Inform. 2014 Dec 15;6(3):e198
pubmed: 25598870
J Natl Cancer Inst. 2015 Apr 08;107(5):
pubmed: 25855707
Front Pediatr. 2019 May 08;7:147
pubmed: 31139600
PLoS Med. 2018 Sep 4;15(9):e1002644
pubmed: 30180161
Adv Exp Med Biol. 2019;1152:9-29
pubmed: 31456177
Ann Epidemiol. 2008 Nov;18(11):859-61
pubmed: 18823793
CA Cancer J Clin. 2022 Jan;72(1):7-33
pubmed: 35020204
JAMA. 2002 Jul 17;288(3):321-33
pubmed: 12117397
Int J Epidemiol. 2010 Feb;39(1):97-106
pubmed: 19820105
Stat Med. 2004 Apr 15;23(7):1111-30
pubmed: 15057881
JAMA. 2017 Jun 20;317(23):2402-2416
pubmed: 28632866
Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev. 2014 Oct;23(10):2078-92
pubmed: 25017248
Lancet. 2018 Aug 4;392(10145):367-368
pubmed: 30102161
J Theor Biol. 2007 May 21;246(2):245-59
pubmed: 17289081
Breast Cancer Res Treat. 2019 Aug;177(1):165-173
pubmed: 31129803
Lancet. 2008 Feb 16;371(9612):569-78
pubmed: 18280327
CA Cancer J Clin. 2020 Jan;70(1):7-30
pubmed: 31912902
JAMA Oncol. 2016 Oct 01;2(10):1295-1302
pubmed: 27228256
Ann N Y Acad Sci. 1998 May 1;840:563-76
pubmed: 9629283
Science. 2002 May 10;296(5570):1046-9
pubmed: 12004111
Breast Cancer Res. 2006;8(4):R43
pubmed: 16859501
Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev. 2013 Apr;22(4):485-95
pubmed: 23462925
Breast Cancer Res. 2005;7(5):R605-8
pubmed: 16168104
Br J Cancer. 1954 Mar;8(1):1-12
pubmed: 13172380
Lancet. 1997 Oct 11;350(9084):1047-59
pubmed: 10213546
PLoS One. 2015 Nov 10;10(11):e0142513
pubmed: 26555153
Hum Reprod. 2019 Jan 01;34(1):109-117
pubmed: 30517665
J Natl Cancer Inst. 2000 Sep 20;92(18):1490-9
pubmed: 10995804
Annu Rev Public Health. 2018 Apr 1;39:77-94
pubmed: 29328870
Am J Prev Med. 2008 Aug;35(2 Suppl):S96-115
pubmed: 18619410
CMAJ. 1992 Nov 15;147(10):1477-88
pubmed: 1423088
Am J Epidemiol. 2019 May 1;188(5):862-865
pubmed: 30877289
Breast Cancer Res Treat. 2013 Nov;142(1):187-202
pubmed: 24158759
Health Educ Behav. 2006 Aug;33(4):515-31
pubmed: 16769758
J Epidemiol Community Health. 2016 Sep;70(9):862-7
pubmed: 27083491
Epidemiol Rev. 2014;36:114-36
pubmed: 24375928
Am J Epidemiol. 2008 Jul 1;168(1):1-8
pubmed: 18480064
Nat Methods. 2018 Jun;15(6):399-400
pubmed: 29855577
Breast Cancer Res Treat. 2017 Aug;165(1):215-223
pubmed: 28589369
Clin Cancer Res. 2016 Apr 1;22(7):1565-71
pubmed: 26792261
Transl Res. 2017 Apr;182:123-134
pubmed: 27893987
Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev. 2020 Oct;29(10):1887-1903
pubmed: 32152214
Med Decis Making. 2018 Apr;38(1_suppl):3S-8S
pubmed: 29554472
Epidemiology. 2005 Jan;16(1):124-9
pubmed: 15613957
Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev. 2020 Sep;29(9):1720-1730
pubmed: 32641370
Nature. 1983 Jun 30;303(5920):767-70
pubmed: 6866078
Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev. 2015 Jun;24(6):905-12
pubmed: 25787716
Br J Cancer. 2002 Nov 18;87(11):1234-45
pubmed: 12439712
Environ Health. 2018 Apr 3;17(1):32
pubmed: 29615064
Br J Cancer. 2015 Feb 3;112(3):580-93
pubmed: 25422909
Carcinogenesis. 2015 Jun;36 Suppl 1:S254-96
pubmed: 26106142
Soc Sci Med. 2005 Jun;60(12):2661-71
pubmed: 15820578