Covid-19 Rates by Time since Vaccination during Delta Variant Predominance.


Journal

NEJM evidence
ISSN: 2766-5526
Titre abrégé: NEJM Evid
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 9918317485806676

Informations de publication

Date de publication:
10 Jan 2022
Historique:
medline: 10 1 2022
pubmed: 10 1 2022
entrez: 19 5 2023
Statut: ppublish

Résumé

With the emergence of the delta variant, the United States experienced a rapid increase in Covid-19 cases in 2021. We estimated the risk of breakthrough infection and death by month of vaccination as a proxy for waning immunity during a period of delta variant predominance. Covid-19 case and death data from 15 U.S. jurisdictions during January 3 to September 4, 2021 were used to estimate weekly hazard rates among fully vaccinated persons, stratified by age group and vaccine product. Case and death rates during August 1 to September 4, 2021 were presented across four cohorts defined by month of vaccination. Poisson models were used to estimate adjusted rate ratios comparing the earlier cohorts to July rates. During August 1 to September 4, 2021, case rates per 100,000 person-weeks among all vaccine recipients for the January to February, March to April, May to June, and July cohorts were 168.8 (95% confidence interval [CI], 167.5 to 170.1), 123.5 (95% CI, 122.8 to 124.1), 83.6 (95% CI, 82.9 to 84.3), and 63.1 (95% CI, 61.6 to 64.6), respectively. Similar trends were observed by age group for BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) and mRNA-1273 (Moderna) vaccine recipients. Rates for the Ad26.COV2.S (Janssen-Johnson & Johnson) vaccine were higher; however, trends were inconsistent. BNT162b2 vaccine recipients 65 years of age or older had higher death rates among those vaccinated earlier in the year. Protection against death was sustained for the mRNA-1273 vaccine recipients. Across age groups and vaccine types, people who were vaccinated 6 months ago or longer (January-February) were 3.44 (3.36 to 3.53) times more likely to be infected and 1.70 (1.29 to 2.23) times more likely to die from COVID-19 than people vaccinated recently in July 2021. Our study suggests that protection from SARS-CoV-2 infection among all ages or death among older adults waned with increasing time since vaccination during a period of delta predominance. These results add to the evidence base that supports U.S. booster recommendations, especially for older adults vaccinated with BNT162b2 and recipients of the Ad26.COV2.S vaccine. (Funded by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.).

Sections du résumé

BACKGROUND BACKGROUND
With the emergence of the delta variant, the United States experienced a rapid increase in Covid-19 cases in 2021. We estimated the risk of breakthrough infection and death by month of vaccination as a proxy for waning immunity during a period of delta variant predominance.
METHODS METHODS
Covid-19 case and death data from 15 U.S. jurisdictions during January 3 to September 4, 2021 were used to estimate weekly hazard rates among fully vaccinated persons, stratified by age group and vaccine product. Case and death rates during August 1 to September 4, 2021 were presented across four cohorts defined by month of vaccination. Poisson models were used to estimate adjusted rate ratios comparing the earlier cohorts to July rates.
RESULTS RESULTS
During August 1 to September 4, 2021, case rates per 100,000 person-weeks among all vaccine recipients for the January to February, March to April, May to June, and July cohorts were 168.8 (95% confidence interval [CI], 167.5 to 170.1), 123.5 (95% CI, 122.8 to 124.1), 83.6 (95% CI, 82.9 to 84.3), and 63.1 (95% CI, 61.6 to 64.6), respectively. Similar trends were observed by age group for BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) and mRNA-1273 (Moderna) vaccine recipients. Rates for the Ad26.COV2.S (Janssen-Johnson & Johnson) vaccine were higher; however, trends were inconsistent. BNT162b2 vaccine recipients 65 years of age or older had higher death rates among those vaccinated earlier in the year. Protection against death was sustained for the mRNA-1273 vaccine recipients. Across age groups and vaccine types, people who were vaccinated 6 months ago or longer (January-February) were 3.44 (3.36 to 3.53) times more likely to be infected and 1.70 (1.29 to 2.23) times more likely to die from COVID-19 than people vaccinated recently in July 2021.
CONCLUSIONS CONCLUSIONS
Our study suggests that protection from SARS-CoV-2 infection among all ages or death among older adults waned with increasing time since vaccination during a period of delta predominance. These results add to the evidence base that supports U.S. booster recommendations, especially for older adults vaccinated with BNT162b2 and recipients of the Ad26.COV2.S vaccine. (Funded by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.).

Identifiants

pubmed: 37207114
doi: 10.1056/evidoa2100057
pmc: PMC10193243
mid: NIHMS1877582
doi:

Types de publication

Journal Article

Langues

eng

Subventions

Organisme : Intramural CDC HHS
ID : CC999999
Pays : United States

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Auteurs

Gabriela Paz-Bailey (G)

Epidemiology Task Force, COVID-19 Response Team, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta.

Maya Sternberg (M)

Epidemiology Task Force, COVID-19 Response Team, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta.

Kiersten Kugeler (K)

Epidemiology Task Force, COVID-19 Response Team, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta.

Brooke Hoots (B)

Epidemiology Task Force, COVID-19 Response Team, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta.

Avnika B Amin (AB)

Epidemiology Task Force, COVID-19 Response Team, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta.

Amelia G Johnson (AG)

Epidemiology Task Force, COVID-19 Response Team, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta.

Bree Barbeau (B)

Utah Department of Health, Salt Lake City.

Nagla S Bayoumi (NS)

New Jersey Department of Health, Trenton.

Daniel Bertolino (D)

New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, Long Island City.

Rachelle Boulton (R)

Utah Department of Health, Salt Lake City.

Catherine M Brown (CM)

Massachusetts Department of Public Health, Boston.

Katherine Busen (K)

Michigan Department of Health and Human Services, Lansing.

Michael Cima (M)

Arkansas Department of Health, Little Rock.

Cherie Drenzek (C)

Georgia Department of Health, Atlanta.

Ashley Gent (A)

Florida Department of Health, Tallahassee.

Gillian Haney (G)

Massachusetts Department of Public Health, Boston.

Liam Hicks (L)

Arizona Department of Health Services, Phoenix.

Sarah Hook (S)

Epidemiology Task Force, COVID-19 Response Team, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta.

Amanda Jara (A)

Georgia Department of Health, Atlanta.

Amanda Jones (A)

Center for Surveillance, Epidemiology, and Laboratory Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta.

Ishrat Kamal-Ahmed (I)

Nebraska Department of Health and Human Services, Lincoln.

Sarah Kangas (S)

Wisconsin Department of Health Services, Madison.

F N U Kanishka (FNU)

Nebraska Department of Health and Human Services, Lincoln.

Saadiah I Khan (SI)

New Jersey Department of Health, Trenton.

Samantha K Kirkendall (SK)

Idaho Department of Health and Welfare, Boise.

Anna Kocharian (A)

Wisconsin Department of Health Services, Madison.

B Casey Lyons (BC)

Data Analytics and Visualization Task Force, COVID-19 Response Team, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta.

Priscilla Lauro (P)

Arizona Department of Health Services, Phoenix.

Donald McCormick (D)

Arkansas Department of Health, Little Rock.

Chelsea McMullen (C)

New Mexico Department of Health, Santa Fe.

Lauren Milroy (L)

Indiana Department of Health, Indianapolis.

Heather E Reese (HE)

Epidemiology Task Force, COVID-19 Response Team, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta.

Jessica Sell (J)

New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, Long Island City.

Allison Sierocki (A)

Tennessee Department of Health, Nashville.

Elizabeth Smith (E)

Georgia Department of Health, Atlanta.

Daniel Sosin (D)

New Mexico Department of Health, Santa Fe.

Emma Stanislawski (E)

New Mexico Department of Health, Santa Fe.

Kyle Strand (K)

Nebraska Department of Health and Human Services, Lincoln.

Thomas Troelstrup (T)

Florida Department of Health, Tallahassee.

Kathryn A Turner (KA)

Idaho Department of Health and Welfare, Boise.

Hailey Vest (H)

Indiana Department of Health, Indianapolis.

Sydni Warner (S)

Wisconsin Department of Health Services, Madison.

Caleb Wiedeman (C)

Tennessee Department of Health, Nashville.

Benjamin Silk (B)

Epidemiology Task Force, COVID-19 Response Team, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta.

Heather M Scobie (HM)

Epidemiology Task Force, COVID-19 Response Team, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta.

Classifications MeSH