Quantitative Assessment of a Dual Epidemic Caused by Tuberculosis and HIV in the Philippines.
Compartmental model
HIV/AIDS
TB-HIV/AIDS co-infection
Tuberculosis
Journal
Bulletin of mathematical biology
ISSN: 1522-9602
Titre abrégé: Bull Math Biol
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 0401404
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
21 05 2023
21 05 2023
Historique:
received:
19
07
2022
accepted:
05
04
2023
medline:
23
5
2023
pubmed:
22
5
2023
entrez:
21
5
2023
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Tuberculosis (TB) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) are the two major public health emergencies in the Philippines. The country is ranked fourth worldwide in TB incidence cases despite national efforts and initiatives to mitigate the disease. Concurrently, the Philippines has the fastest-growing HIV epidemic in Asia and the Pacific region. The TB-HIV dual epidemic forms a lethal combination enhancing each other's progress, driving the deterioration of immune responses. In order to understand and describe the transmission dynamics and epidemiological patterns of the co-infection, a compartmental model for TB-HIV is developed. A class of people living with HIV (PLHIV) who did not know their HIV status is incorporated into the model. These unaware PLHIV who do not seek medical treatment are potential sources of new HIV infections that could significantly influence the disease transmission dynamics. Sensitivity analysis using the partial rank correlation coefficient is performed to assess model parameters that are influential to the output of interests. The model is calibrated using available Philippine data on TB, HIV, and TB-HIV. Parameters that are identified include TB and HIV transmission rates, progression rates from exposed to active TB, and from TB-latent with HIV to active infectious TB with HIV in the AIDS stage. Uncertainty analysis is performed to identify the degree of accuracy of the estimates. Simulations predict an alarming increase of 180% and 194% in new HIV and TB-HIV infections in 2025, respectively, relative to 2019 data. These projections underscore an ongoing health crisis in the Philippines that calls for a combined and collective effort by the government and the public to take action against the lethal combination of TB and HIV.
Identifiants
pubmed: 37211585
doi: 10.1007/s11538-023-01156-1
pii: 10.1007/s11538-023-01156-1
pmc: PMC10200076
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
56Informations de copyright
© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Society for Mathematical Biology.
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