Community incidence patterns drive the risk of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks and alter intervention impacts in a high-risk institutional setting.

Humans SARS-CoV-2 COVID-19 / epidemiology Incidence Disease Outbreaks Vaccination
Agent-based model COVID-19 Disease dynamics Epidemiology Forecasting High-risk settings SARS-CoV-2

Journal

Epidemics
ISSN: 1878-0067
Titre abrégé: Epidemics
Pays: Netherlands
ID NLM: 101484711

Informations de publication

Date de publication:
06 2023
Historique:
received: 08 09 2022
revised: 20 04 2023
accepted: 26 05 2023
medline: 16 6 2023
pubmed: 3 6 2023
entrez: 2 6 2023
Statut: ppublish

Résumé

Optimization of control measures for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in high-risk institutional settings (e.g., prisons, nursing homes, or military bases) depends on how transmission dynamics in the broader community influence outbreak risk locally. We calibrated an individual-based transmission model of a military training camp to the number of RT-PCR positive trainees throughout 2020 and 2021. The predicted number of infected new arrivals closely followed adjusted national incidence and increased early outbreak risk after accounting for vaccination coverage, masking compliance, and virus variants. Outbreak size was strongly correlated with the predicted number of off-base infections among staff during training camp. In addition, off-base infections reduced the impact of arrival screening and masking, while the number of infectious trainees upon arrival reduced the impact of vaccination and staff testing. Our results highlight the importance of outside incidence patterns for modulating risk and the optimal mixture of control measures in institutional settings.

Identifiants

DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2023.100691 PMID: 37267710 PMC: PMC10223639
pubmed: 37267710
pii: S1755-4365(23)00027-0
doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2023.100691
pmc: PMC10223639
pii:
doi:

Types de publication

Journal Article Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

Langues

eng

Sous-ensembles de citation

IM

Pagination

100691

Informations de copyright

Copyright © 2023. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts

Declaration of Competing Interest None.

Auteurs

Sean M Moore (SM)

Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556, USA. Electronic address: smoore15@nd.edu.

Guido España (G)

Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556, USA.

T Alex Perkins (TA)

Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556, USA.

Robert M Guido (RM)

Moncrief Army Health Clinic, Fort Jackson, SC 29207, USA.

Joaquin B Jucaban (JB)

Moncrief Army Health Clinic, Fort Jackson, SC 29207, USA.

Tara L Hall (TL)

Moncrief Army Health Clinic, Fort Jackson, SC 29207, USA.

Mark E Huhtanen (ME)

United States Army Training Center, Fort Jackson, SC 29207, USA.

Sheila A Peel (SA)

Diagnostics and Countermeasures Branch, Walter Reed Army Institute of Research, Silver Spring, MD 20910, USA.

Kayvon Modjarrad (K)

Emerging Infectious Diseases Branch, Walter Reed Army Institute of Research, Silver Spring, MD 20910, USA.

Shilpa Hakre (S)

Emerging Infectious Diseases Branch, Walter Reed Army Institute of Research, Silver Spring, MD 20910, USA; Henry M. Jackson Foundation for the Advancement of Military Medicine, Inc., Bethesda, MD 20817, USA.

Paul T Scott (PT)

Emerging Infectious Diseases Branch, Walter Reed Army Institute of Research, Silver Spring, MD 20910, USA.

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Classifications MeSH

questionsmedicales.fr › Eucaryotes › Animaux › Chordés › Vertébrés › Mammifères › Eutheria › Primates › Haplorhini › Catarrhini › Hominidae › Humains › Community incidence patterns drive the risk of...
questionsmedicales.fr › Virus › Virus à ARN › Virus à ARN à brin positif › Nidovirales › Coronaviridae › Coronavirus › Betacoronavirus › Virus du SRAS › SARS-CoV-2 › Community incidence patterns drive the risk of...
questionsmedicales.fr › Maladies de l'appareil respiratoire › Infections de l'appareil respiratoire › Pneumopathie infectieuse › Pneumopathie virale › COVID-19 › Community incidence patterns drive the risk of...
questionsmedicales.fr › Environnement et santé publique › Santé publique › Méthodes épidémiologiques › Collecte de données › Registre civil › Morbidité › Incidence › Community incidence patterns drive the risk of...
questionsmedicales.fr › Environnement et santé publique › Santé publique › Épidémies de maladies › Community incidence patterns drive the risk of...
questionsmedicales.fr › Environnement et santé publique › Santé publique › Pratiques en santé publique › Prévention primaire › Immunisation › Vaccination › Community incidence patterns drive the risk of...