Development of a scoring model based on objective factors to predict gangrenous/perforated appendicitis.
Gangrenous/perforated appendicitis
Prediction
Scoring model
Journal
BMC gastroenterology
ISSN: 1471-230X
Titre abrégé: BMC Gastroenterol
Pays: England
ID NLM: 100968547
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
07 Jun 2023
07 Jun 2023
Historique:
received:
03
10
2022
accepted:
15
04
2023
medline:
9
6
2023
pubmed:
8
6
2023
entrez:
7
6
2023
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
The mortality rate of gangrenous/perforated appendicitis is higher than that of uncomplicated appendicitis. However, non-operative management of such patients is ineffective. This necessitates their careful exam at presentation to identify gangrenous/perforated appendicitis and aid surgical decision-making. Therefore, this study aimed to develop a new scoring model based on objective findings to predict gangrenous/perforated appendicitis in adults. We retrospectively analyzed 151 patients with acute appendicitis who underwent emergency surgery between January 2014 and June 2021. We performed univariate and multivariate analyses to identify independent objective predictors of gangrenous/perforated appendicitis, and a new scoring model was developed based on logistic regression coefficients for independent predictors. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test were performed to assess the discrimination and calibration of the model. Finally, the scores were classified into three categories based on the probability of gangrenous/perforated appendicitis. Among the 151 patients, 85 and 66 patients were diagnosed with gangrenous/perforated appendicitis and uncomplicated appendicitis, respectively. Using the multivariate analysis, C-reactive protein level, maximal outer diameter of the appendix, and presence of appendiceal fecalith were identified as independent predictors for developing gangrenous/perforated appendicitis. Our novel scoring model was developed based on three independent predictors and ranged from 0 to 3. The area under the ROC curve was 0.792 (95% confidence interval, 0.721-0.863), and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed a good calibration of the novel scoring model (P = 0.716). Three risk categories were classified: low, moderate, and high risk with probabilities of 30.9%, 63.8%, and 94.4%, respectively. Our scoring model can objectively and reproducibly identify gangrenous/perforated appendicitis with good diagnostic accuracy and help in determining the degree of urgency and in making decisions about appendicitis management.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
BACKGROUND
The mortality rate of gangrenous/perforated appendicitis is higher than that of uncomplicated appendicitis. However, non-operative management of such patients is ineffective. This necessitates their careful exam at presentation to identify gangrenous/perforated appendicitis and aid surgical decision-making. Therefore, this study aimed to develop a new scoring model based on objective findings to predict gangrenous/perforated appendicitis in adults.
METHODS
METHODS
We retrospectively analyzed 151 patients with acute appendicitis who underwent emergency surgery between January 2014 and June 2021. We performed univariate and multivariate analyses to identify independent objective predictors of gangrenous/perforated appendicitis, and a new scoring model was developed based on logistic regression coefficients for independent predictors. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test were performed to assess the discrimination and calibration of the model. Finally, the scores were classified into three categories based on the probability of gangrenous/perforated appendicitis.
RESULTS
RESULTS
Among the 151 patients, 85 and 66 patients were diagnosed with gangrenous/perforated appendicitis and uncomplicated appendicitis, respectively. Using the multivariate analysis, C-reactive protein level, maximal outer diameter of the appendix, and presence of appendiceal fecalith were identified as independent predictors for developing gangrenous/perforated appendicitis. Our novel scoring model was developed based on three independent predictors and ranged from 0 to 3. The area under the ROC curve was 0.792 (95% confidence interval, 0.721-0.863), and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed a good calibration of the novel scoring model (P = 0.716). Three risk categories were classified: low, moderate, and high risk with probabilities of 30.9%, 63.8%, and 94.4%, respectively.
CONCLUSIONS
CONCLUSIONS
Our scoring model can objectively and reproducibly identify gangrenous/perforated appendicitis with good diagnostic accuracy and help in determining the degree of urgency and in making decisions about appendicitis management.
Identifiants
pubmed: 37286951
doi: 10.1186/s12876-023-02767-7
pii: 10.1186/s12876-023-02767-7
pmc: PMC10249254
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
198Informations de copyright
© 2023. The Author(s).
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