The impact of local control on widespread progression and survival in oligometastasis-directed SBRT: Results from a large international database.

We investigated the impact of local control (LC) on widespread progression (WSP) and overall survival (OS) in patients treated to all extracranial oligometastases (OMs) at presentation to SBRT in this retrospective review across 6 international centers. Relationships between LC status of SBRT-directed OMs and OS and WSP (>5 new active/untreated lesions) were explored using Cox and Fine-Gray regression models, adjusting for radioresistant histology and pre-SBRT systemic therapy receipt. The association between LC and dosimetric predictors was analyzed with competing risk regression using death as a competing risk and across a wide range of simulated α/βratios. In total, 1700 OMs in 1033 patients were analyzed, with 25.2% NSCLC, 22.7% colorectal, 12.8% prostate, and 8.1% breast histology. Patients who failed locally in any SBRT-directed OM within 6 mo were at 3.6-fold higher risk of death and 2.7-fold higher risk of WSP compared to those who remained locally-controlled (p < 0.001). Similar associations existed for each duration of LC investigated through 3 yrs post-SBRT. There was no significant difference in risk of WSP or death between patients who failed in a subset of SBRT-treated lesions vs. patients who failed in all lesions. Minimum dose (Dmin) to the GTV/ITV was most predictive of LC when compared to prescription dose, PTV Dmin, and PTV Dmax. Sensitivity analysis for achieving 1-yr LC > 95% found thresholds of 41.2 Gy and 55.2 Gy in 5 fractions for smaller (< 27.7 cc) and larger radioresistant lesions, respectively. This large multinational cohort suggests that the duration of LC following OM-directed SBRT strongly correlates with WSP and OS.

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Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.