Predictive value of clinician impression for readmission and postdischarge mortality among neonates and young children in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania and Monrovia, Liberia.
health services research
mortality
neonatology
Journal
BMJ paediatrics open
ISSN: 2399-9772
Titre abrégé: BMJ Paediatr Open
Pays: England
ID NLM: 101715309
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
06 2023
06 2023
Historique:
received:
20
03
2023
accepted:
11
06
2023
medline:
3
7
2023
pubmed:
30
6
2023
entrez:
29
6
2023
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
There are no validated clinical decision aids to identify neonates and young children at risk of hospital readmission or postdischarge mortality in sub-Saharan Africa, leaving the decision to discharge a child to a clinician's impression. Our objective was to determine the precision of clinician impression to identify neonates and young children at risk for readmission and postdischarge mortality. We conducted a survey study nested in a prospective observational cohort of neonates and children aged 1-59 months followed 60 days after hospital discharge from Muhimbili National Hospital in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania or John F. Kennedy Medical Center in Monrovia, Liberia. Clinicians who discharged each enrolled patient were surveyed to determine their perceived probability of the patient's risk of 60-day hospital readmission or postdischarge mortality. We calculated the area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC) to determine the precision of clinician impression for both outcomes. Of 4247 discharged patients, 3896 (91.7%) had available clinician surveys and 3847 (98.7%) had 60-day outcomes available: 187 (4.8%) were readmitted and 120 (3.1%) died within 60 days of hospital discharge. Clinician impression had poor precision in identifying neonates and young children at risk of hospital readmission (AUPRC: 0.06, 95% CI: 0.04 to 0.08) and postdischarge mortality (AUPRC: 0.05, 95% CI: 0.03 to 0.08). Patients for whom clinicians attributed inability to pay for future medical treatment as the reason for risk for unplanned hospital readmission had 4.76 times the odds hospital readmission (95% CI: 1.31 to 17.25, p=0.02). Given the poor precision of clinician impression alone to identify neonates and young children at risk of hospital readmission and postdischarge mortality, validated clinical decision aids are needed to aid in the identification of young children at risk for these outcomes.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
There are no validated clinical decision aids to identify neonates and young children at risk of hospital readmission or postdischarge mortality in sub-Saharan Africa, leaving the decision to discharge a child to a clinician's impression. Our objective was to determine the precision of clinician impression to identify neonates and young children at risk for readmission and postdischarge mortality.
METHODS
We conducted a survey study nested in a prospective observational cohort of neonates and children aged 1-59 months followed 60 days after hospital discharge from Muhimbili National Hospital in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania or John F. Kennedy Medical Center in Monrovia, Liberia. Clinicians who discharged each enrolled patient were surveyed to determine their perceived probability of the patient's risk of 60-day hospital readmission or postdischarge mortality. We calculated the area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC) to determine the precision of clinician impression for both outcomes.
RESULTS
Of 4247 discharged patients, 3896 (91.7%) had available clinician surveys and 3847 (98.7%) had 60-day outcomes available: 187 (4.8%) were readmitted and 120 (3.1%) died within 60 days of hospital discharge. Clinician impression had poor precision in identifying neonates and young children at risk of hospital readmission (AUPRC: 0.06, 95% CI: 0.04 to 0.08) and postdischarge mortality (AUPRC: 0.05, 95% CI: 0.03 to 0.08). Patients for whom clinicians attributed inability to pay for future medical treatment as the reason for risk for unplanned hospital readmission had 4.76 times the odds hospital readmission (95% CI: 1.31 to 17.25, p=0.02).
CONCLUSIONS
Given the poor precision of clinician impression alone to identify neonates and young children at risk of hospital readmission and postdischarge mortality, validated clinical decision aids are needed to aid in the identification of young children at risk for these outcomes.
Identifiants
pubmed: 37385735
pii: 10.1136/bmjpo-2023-001972
doi: 10.1136/bmjpo-2023-001972
pmc: PMC10314694
pii:
doi:
Types de publication
Observational Study
Journal Article
Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Subventions
Organisme : NIDDK NIH HHS
ID : K24 DK104676
Pays : United States
Organisme : NIDDK NIH HHS
ID : P30 DK040561
Pays : United States
Informations de copyright
© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2023. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
Competing interests: None declared.
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