Modeling the future of HIV in Turkey: Cost-effectiveness analysis of improving testing and diagnosis.
Journal
PloS one
ISSN: 1932-6203
Titre abrégé: PLoS One
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 101285081
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
2023
2023
Historique:
received:
18
12
2022
accepted:
11
05
2023
medline:
3
7
2023
pubmed:
30
6
2023
entrez:
30
6
2023
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
This study aimed to determine HIV incidence and prevalence in Turkey and to estimate the cost-effectiveness of improving testing and diagnosis in the next 20 years. HIV incidence in Turkey has been rapidly increasing in the last decade with a particularly high rate of infection for younger populations, which underscores the urgent need for a robust prevention program and improved testing capacity for HIV. We developed a dynamic compartmental model of HIV transmission and progression among the Turkish population aged 15-64 and assessed the effect of improving testing and diagnosis. The model generated the number of new HIV cases by transmission risk and CD4 level, HIV diagnoses, HIV prevalence, continuum of care, the number of HIV-related deaths, and the expected number of infections prevented from 2020 to 2040. We also explored the cost impact of HIV and the cost-effectiveness of improving testing and diagnosis. Under the base case scenario, the model estimated an HIV incidence of 13,462 cases in 2020, with 63% undiagnosed. The number of infections was estimated to increase by 27% by 2040, with HIV incidence in 2040 reaching 376,889 and HIV prevalence 2,414,965 cases. Improving testing and diagnosis to 50%, 70%, and 90%, would prevent 782,789, 2,059,399, and 2,336,564 infections-32%, 85%, and 97% reduction in 20 years, respectively. Improved testing and diagnosis would reduce spending between $1.8 and $8.8 billion. In the case of no improvement in the current continuum of care, HIV incidence and prevalence will significantly increase over the next 20 years, placing a significant burden on the Turkish healthcare system. However, improving testing and diagnosis could substantially reduce the number of infections, ameliorating the public health and disease burden aspects.
Sections du résumé
AIMS
This study aimed to determine HIV incidence and prevalence in Turkey and to estimate the cost-effectiveness of improving testing and diagnosis in the next 20 years.
BACKGROUND
HIV incidence in Turkey has been rapidly increasing in the last decade with a particularly high rate of infection for younger populations, which underscores the urgent need for a robust prevention program and improved testing capacity for HIV.
METHODS
We developed a dynamic compartmental model of HIV transmission and progression among the Turkish population aged 15-64 and assessed the effect of improving testing and diagnosis. The model generated the number of new HIV cases by transmission risk and CD4 level, HIV diagnoses, HIV prevalence, continuum of care, the number of HIV-related deaths, and the expected number of infections prevented from 2020 to 2040. We also explored the cost impact of HIV and the cost-effectiveness of improving testing and diagnosis.
RESULTS
Under the base case scenario, the model estimated an HIV incidence of 13,462 cases in 2020, with 63% undiagnosed. The number of infections was estimated to increase by 27% by 2040, with HIV incidence in 2040 reaching 376,889 and HIV prevalence 2,414,965 cases. Improving testing and diagnosis to 50%, 70%, and 90%, would prevent 782,789, 2,059,399, and 2,336,564 infections-32%, 85%, and 97% reduction in 20 years, respectively. Improved testing and diagnosis would reduce spending between $1.8 and $8.8 billion.
CONCLUSIONS
In the case of no improvement in the current continuum of care, HIV incidence and prevalence will significantly increase over the next 20 years, placing a significant burden on the Turkish healthcare system. However, improving testing and diagnosis could substantially reduce the number of infections, ameliorating the public health and disease burden aspects.
Identifiants
pubmed: 37390076
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0286254
pii: PONE-D-22-32071
pmc: PMC10313051
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
e0286254Informations de copyright
Copyright: © 2023 Yaylali et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
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