Serum biomarkers predictive of cirrhosis in alcoholic liver disease as an alternative to ARFI-SW elastography.

Aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index (APRI) and fibrosis 4 (FIB-4) index are noninvasive biomarkers that evaluate liver stiffness in patients with chronic viral hepatitis and are able to detect advanced hepatic fibrosis and cirrhosis. However, their usefulness in alcoholic liver disease (ALD), when compared with Acoustic Radiation Force Impulse- Shear Wave (ARFI-SW) elastography, is debatable. We sifted the files of all enrolled patients with ALD that were admitted to our Emergency hospital between January 2019 and December 2020. All patients had undergone ARFI-SW elastography, and APRI and FIB-4 scores were calculated. The performance of APRI and FIB-4 scores in the prediction of cirrhotic patients according to ARFI-SW elastography was evaluated. In total, 120 patients with ALD were evaluated. All of them were male and Caucasian, with a mean age of 55.54±12.4 years. The mean ARFI-SW elastography score was 1.57±0.7 m/s, the median APRI score was 0.68 (0.1-11.6) and the median FIB-4 score was 1.8 (0.2-19.4). Stages of liver fibrosis according to ARFI-SW elastography were evaluated as F0-1 in 21 (10.5%), F2 in 35 (26%), F3 in 52 (17.5%), and F4 in 92 (46%) patients. Based on ARFI-SW elastography fibrosis stage classification, we estimated the optimal APRI and FIB-4 scores to predict the presence of liver cirrhosis (F4) by using ROC curve analysis and the Youden index. The optimal APRI score for F4 patients was calculated as >1.52 [area under the curve (AUC) 0.875, 95% CI 0.809-0.919; p<0.001], giving sensitivity (Se) 81.2%, specificity (Sp) 81.4%, positive predictive value (PPV) 76%, and negative predictive value (NPV) 86.1%. The optimal FIB-4 score for F4 patients was calculated as >2.77 (AUC 0.916, 95% CI 0.814-0.922; p<0.001), giving Se 83.8%, Sp 77%, 81.4 77%, and NPV 84.3%. APRI and FIB-4 scores can be used as screening tools in ALD for predicting cirrhosis instead of ARFI-SW elastography measurement, which is neither widely available nor an affordable method. Additional prospective studies are required in the future to confirm this finding.