Predicting the potential impacts of climate change on the endangered endemic annonaceae species in east africa.

Climate change Conservation management Ecological niche modeling Threatened species

Journal

Heliyon
ISSN: 2405-8440
Titre abrégé: Heliyon
Pays: England
ID NLM: 101672560

Informations de publication

Date de publication:
Jun 2023
Historique:
received: 20 02 2023
revised: 15 06 2023
accepted: 15 06 2023
medline: 7 7 2023
pubmed: 7 7 2023
entrez: 7 7 2023
Statut: epublish

Résumé

Globally, endemic species and natural habitats have been significantly impacted by climate change, and further considerable impacts are predicted. Therefore, understanding how endemic species are impacted by climate change can aid in advancing the necessary conservation initiatives. The use of niche modeling is becoming a popular topic in biological conservation to forecast changes in species distributions under various climate change scenarios. This study used the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator version 1 (ACCESS-CM2) general circulation model of coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6) to model the current distribution of suitable habitat for the four threatened Annonaceae species endemic to East Africa (EA), to determine the impact of climate change on their suitable habitat in the years 2050 (average for 2041-2060) and 2070 (average for 2061-2080). Two shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) SSP370 and SSP585 were used to project the contraction and expansion of suitable habitats for

Identifiants

pubmed: 37416643
doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e17405
pii: S2405-8440(23)04613-3
pmc: PMC10320037
doi:

Types de publication

Journal Article

Langues

eng

Pagination

e17405

Informations de copyright

© 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

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Auteurs

Elijah Mbandi Mkala (EM)

CAS Key Laboratory of Plant Germplasm Enhancement and Specialty Agriculture, Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, 430074, China.
Sino-Africa Joint Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, CN-430074, China.
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, CN-100049, China.

Virginia Mwanzia (V)

Lukenya University, Athi River, P.O Box 90-90128, Mtito Andei, Kenya.

Johh Nzei (J)

CAS Key Laboratory of Plant Germplasm Enhancement and Specialty Agriculture, Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, 430074, China.
Sino-Africa Joint Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, CN-430074, China.
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, CN-100049, China.

Wyclife Agumba Oluoch (WA)

Center for Development Research - ZEF, University of Bonn, Genscherallee 3, 53113, Bonn, Germany.

Boniface K Ngarega (BK)

Sino-Africa Joint Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, CN-430074, China.
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, CN-100049, China.
Centre for Integrative Conservation, Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Menglun, 666303, China.

Vincent Okello Wanga (VO)

CAS Key Laboratory of Plant Germplasm Enhancement and Specialty Agriculture, Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, 430074, China.
Sino-Africa Joint Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, CN-430074, China.
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, CN-100049, China.

Milicent Akinyi Oulo (MA)

CAS Key Laboratory of Plant Germplasm Enhancement and Specialty Agriculture, Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, 430074, China.
Sino-Africa Joint Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, CN-430074, China.
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, CN-100049, China.

Boniface K Ngarega (BK)

Sino-Africa Joint Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, CN-430074, China.
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, CN-100049, China.
Centre for Integrative Conservation, Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Menglun, 666303, China.

Fredrick Munyao (F)

CAS Key Laboratory of Plant Germplasm Enhancement and Specialty Agriculture, Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, 430074, China.
Sino-Africa Joint Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, CN-430074, China.
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, CN-100049, China.

Flory Mkangombe Kilingo (FM)

UNEP-TONGJI Institute of Environmental Science and Sustainable Development (IESD), Tongji University, Siping Road 1239, Shanghai, 200092, PR China.

Penninah Rono (P)

CAS Key Laboratory of Plant Germplasm Enhancement and Specialty Agriculture, Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, 430074, China.
Sino-Africa Joint Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, CN-430074, China.
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, CN-100049, China.

Emmanuel Nyongesa Waswa (EN)

CAS Key Laboratory of Plant Germplasm Enhancement and Specialty Agriculture, Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, 430074, China.
Sino-Africa Joint Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, CN-430074, China.
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, CN-100049, China.

Elizabeth Syowai Mutinda (ES)

CAS Key Laboratory of Plant Germplasm Enhancement and Specialty Agriculture, Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, 430074, China.
Sino-Africa Joint Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, CN-430074, China.
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, CN-100049, China.

Clintone Onyango Ochieng (CO)

CAS Key Laboratory of Plant Germplasm Enhancement and Specialty Agriculture, Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, 430074, China.
Sino-Africa Joint Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, CN-430074, China.
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, CN-100049, China.

Geoffrey Mwachala (G)

East African Herbarium, National Museums of Kenya, P. O. Box 451660-0100, Nairobi, Kenya.

Guang-Wan Hu (GW)

CAS Key Laboratory of Plant Germplasm Enhancement and Specialty Agriculture, Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, 430074, China.
Sino-Africa Joint Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, CN-430074, China.

Qing-Feng Wang (QF)

CAS Key Laboratory of Plant Germplasm Enhancement and Specialty Agriculture, Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, 430074, China.
Sino-Africa Joint Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, CN-430074, China.

Jacinta Kaweze Katunge (JK)

CAS Key Laboratory of Plant Germplasm Enhancement and Specialty Agriculture, Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, 430074, China.
Sino-Africa Joint Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, CN-430074, China.
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, CN-100049, China.

Calmina Izabayo Victoire (CI)

CAS Key Laboratory of Plant Germplasm Enhancement and Specialty Agriculture, Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, 430074, China.
Sino-Africa Joint Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, CN-430074, China.
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, CN-100049, China.

Classifications MeSH