Development of a Novel Score to Predict Urgent Mechanical Circulatory Support in Chronic Total Occlusion Percutaneous Coronary Intervention.

Estimating the likelihood of urgent mechanical circulatory support (MCS) can facilitate procedural planning and clinical decision-making in chronic total occlusion (CTO) percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). We analyzed 2,784 CTO PCIs performed between 2012 and 2021 at 12 centers. The variable importance was estimated by a bootstrap applying a random forest algorithm to a propensity-matched sample (a ratio of 1:5 matching cases with controls on center). The identified variables were used to predict the risk of urgent MCS. The performance of the risk model was assessed in-sample and on 2,411 out-of-sample procedures that did not require urgent MCS. Urgent MCS was used in 62 (2.2%) of cases. Patients who required urgent MCS were older (70 [63 to 77] vs 66 [58 to 73] years, p = 0.003) compared with those who did not require urgent MCS. Technical (68% vs 87%, p <0.001) and procedural success (40% vs 85%, p <0.001) was lower in the urgent MCS group compared with cases that did not require urgent MCS. The risk model for urgent MCS use included retrograde crossing strategy, left ventricular ejection fraction, and lesion length. The resulting model demonstrated good calibration and discriminatory capacity with the area under the curve (95% confidence interval) of 0.79 (0.73 to 0.86) and specificity and sensitivity of 86% and 52%, respectively. In the out-of-sample set, the specificity of the model was 87%. The Prospective Global Registry for the Study of Chronic Total Occlusion Intervention CTO MCS score can help estimate the risk of urgent MCS use during CTO PCI.

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Declaration of Competing Interest Dr. Alaswad: consultant and speaker for Boston Scientific, Abbott Cardiovascular, Teleflex, and CSI Dr. Jaffer: sponsored research from Canon U.S.A., Siemens, Shockwave, Teleflex; Institutional grants: Abbott vascular, Boston Scientific, CSI, Philips, Asahi Intecc, and Biotronik; Consultant for Boston Scientific, Siemens, Biotronik, Magenta Medical, IMDS, and Asahi Intecc; Equity interest, Intravascular Imaging Inc.; DurVena; Massachusetts General Hospital has a patent licensing arrangement with Terumo, Canon U.S.A., and Spectrawave; FAJ has the right to receive royalties. Dr. Poommipanit: Asahi Intecc, Inc., Abbott, Vascular-Consultant. Dr. Khatri: received honoraria from Asahi Intecc; and is a speaker and proctor for Abbott Vascular. Dr. Patel: member of the Speakers Bureau for AstraZeneca. Dr. Yeh: grants and personal fees from Abbott Vascular, AstraZeneca, Medtronic, and Boston Scientific. Dr. ElGuindy: received consultancy and proctorship fees from Medtronic, Asahi Intecc, Boston Scientific, and Terumo. Dr. Abi-Rafeh: proctor and speaker honoraria from Boston Scientific and Abbott Vascular. Dr. Brilakis: consulting/speaker honoraria from Abbott Vascular, American Heart Association (associate editor Circulation), Amgen, Asahi Intecc, Biotronik, Boston Scientific, Cardiovascular Innovations Foundation (Board of Directors), CSI, Elsevier, GE Healthcare, IMDS, Medicure, Medtronic, Siemens, and Teleflex; research support: Boston Scientific, GE Healthcare; owner, Hippocrates LLC; shareholder: MHI Ventures, Cleerly Health, Stallion Medical. All other authors: Nothing to disclose.