Future health expenditure in the BRICS countries: a forecasting analysis for 2035.
BRICS
ETS
Emerging markets
Forecasting
Health expenditure
Health spending
Journal
Globalization and health
ISSN: 1744-8603
Titre abrégé: Global Health
Pays: England
ID NLM: 101245734
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
11 07 2023
11 07 2023
Historique:
received:
08
03
2023
accepted:
28
06
2023
medline:
13
7
2023
pubmed:
12
7
2023
entrez:
11
7
2023
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Accelerated globalization especially in the late 1980s has provided opportunities for economic progress in the world of emerging economies. The BRICS nations' economies are distinguishable from other emerging economies due to their rate of expansion and sheer size. As a result of their economic prosperity, health spending in the BRICS countries has been increasing. However, health security is still a distant dream in these countries due to low public health spending, lack of pre-paid health coverage, and heavy out-of-pocket spending. There is a need for changing the health expenditure composition to address the challenge of regressive health spending and ensure equitable access to comprehensive healthcare services. Present study examined the health expenditure trend among the BRICS from 2000 to 2019 and made predictions with an emphasis on public, pre-paid, and out-of-pocket expenditures for 2035. Health expenditure data for 2000-2019 were taken from the OECD iLibrary database. The exponential smoothing model in R software (ets ()) was used for forecasting. Except for India and Brazil, all of the BRICS countries show a long-term increase in per capita PPP health expenditure. Only India's health expenditure is expected to decrease as a share of GDP after the completion of the SDG years. China accounts for the steepest rise in per capita expenditure until 2035, while Russia is expected to achieve the highest absolute values. The BRICS countries have the potential to be important leaders in a variety of social policies such as health. Each BRICS country has set a national pledge to the right to health and is working on health system reforms to achieve universal health coverage (UHC). The estimations of future health expenditures by these emerging market powers should help policymakers decide how to allocate resources to achieve this goal.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
Accelerated globalization especially in the late 1980s has provided opportunities for economic progress in the world of emerging economies. The BRICS nations' economies are distinguishable from other emerging economies due to their rate of expansion and sheer size. As a result of their economic prosperity, health spending in the BRICS countries has been increasing. However, health security is still a distant dream in these countries due to low public health spending, lack of pre-paid health coverage, and heavy out-of-pocket spending. There is a need for changing the health expenditure composition to address the challenge of regressive health spending and ensure equitable access to comprehensive healthcare services.
OBJECTIVE
Present study examined the health expenditure trend among the BRICS from 2000 to 2019 and made predictions with an emphasis on public, pre-paid, and out-of-pocket expenditures for 2035.
METHODS
Health expenditure data for 2000-2019 were taken from the OECD iLibrary database. The exponential smoothing model in R software (ets ()) was used for forecasting.
RESULTS
Except for India and Brazil, all of the BRICS countries show a long-term increase in per capita PPP health expenditure. Only India's health expenditure is expected to decrease as a share of GDP after the completion of the SDG years. China accounts for the steepest rise in per capita expenditure until 2035, while Russia is expected to achieve the highest absolute values.
CONCLUSION
The BRICS countries have the potential to be important leaders in a variety of social policies such as health. Each BRICS country has set a national pledge to the right to health and is working on health system reforms to achieve universal health coverage (UHC). The estimations of future health expenditures by these emerging market powers should help policymakers decide how to allocate resources to achieve this goal.
Identifiants
pubmed: 37434257
doi: 10.1186/s12992-023-00947-4
pii: 10.1186/s12992-023-00947-4
pmc: PMC10334532
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
49Informations de copyright
© 2023. The Author(s).
Références
Health Policy Plan. 2019 Jul 1;34(6):403-406
pubmed: 31257418
Soc Sci Med. 2021 Sep;285:114149
pubmed: 34384624
J Sport Health Sci. 2019 Nov;8(6):516-519
pubmed: 31720060
Healthcare (Basel). 2023 May 22;11(10):
pubmed: 37239793
J Med Econ. 2023 Jan-Dec;26(1):308-315
pubmed: 36780290
Health Policy Plan. 2016 Jul;31(6):717-28
pubmed: 26704179
J Med Econ. 2021 Nov;24(sup1):25-33
pubmed: 34866543
Front Public Health. 2015 May 06;3:135
pubmed: 26000273
Cost Eff Resour Alloc. 2023 Jun 21;21(1):39
pubmed: 37344814
Front Public Health. 2020 Mar 31;8:80
pubmed: 32296671
J Med Econ. 2016;19(1):70-6
pubmed: 26366470
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2019 May 24;16(10):
pubmed: 31137705
Risk Manag Healthc Policy. 2023 Jun 22;16:1131-1143
pubmed: 37384257
Front Artif Intell. 2022 Apr 29;5:887225
pubmed: 35573900
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2023 Feb;30(6):15170-15185
pubmed: 36166119
Front Public Health. 2021 Mar 18;9:661279
pubmed: 33816429
Risk Manag Healthc Policy. 2023 Jun 16;16:1101-1117
pubmed: 37346248
Lancet. 2017 May 20;389(10083):2005-2030
pubmed: 28433260
Health Policy. 2017 Jul;121(7):764-769
pubmed: 28546030
Bull World Health Organ. 2014 Jun 1;92(6):394-5
pubmed: 24940012
Cost Eff Resour Alloc. 2023 May 31;21(1):35
pubmed: 37259132
J Cancer. 2019 Oct 20;10(26):6491-6501
pubmed: 31777579
Health Policy Plan. 2011 Jan;26(1):12-24
pubmed: 20400535
Lancet. 2019 Jun 1;393(10187):2233-2260
pubmed: 31030984
Health Res Policy Syst. 2022 Feb 19;20(1):23
pubmed: 35183217
Lancet. 2020 5-11 Sep;396(10252):693-724
pubmed: 32334655
Bull World Health Organ. 2014 Jun 1;92(6):429-35
pubmed: 24940017
Health Policy Plan. 2014 Sep;29(6):763-73
pubmed: 24072881
Infect Dis Poverty. 2021 Jul 8;10(1):97
pubmed: 34238368