Estimating long-term vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 variants: a model-based approach.
Journal
Nature communications
ISSN: 2041-1723
Titre abrégé: Nat Commun
Pays: England
ID NLM: 101528555
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
19 07 2023
19 07 2023
Historique:
received:
06
01
2023
accepted:
27
06
2023
medline:
21
7
2023
pubmed:
20
7
2023
entrez:
19
7
2023
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
With the ongoing evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 virus updated vaccines may be needed. We fitted a model linking immunity levels and protection to vaccine effectiveness data from England for three vaccines (Oxford/AstraZeneca AZD1222, Pfizer-BioNTech BNT162b2, Moderna mRNA-1273) and two variants (Delta, Omicron). Our model reproduces the observed sustained protection against hospitalisation and death from the Omicron variant over the first six months following dose 3 with the ancestral vaccines but projects a gradual waning to moderate protection after 1 year. Switching the fourth dose to a variant-matched vaccine against Omicron BA.1/2 is projected to prevent nearly twice as many hospitalisations and deaths over a 1-year period compared to administering the ancestral vaccine. This result is sensitive to the degree to which immunogenicity data can be used to predict vaccine effectiveness and uncertainty regarding the impact that infection-induced immunity (not captured here) may play in modifying future vaccine effectiveness.
Identifiants
pubmed: 37468463
doi: 10.1038/s41467-023-39736-3
pii: 10.1038/s41467-023-39736-3
pmc: PMC10356855
doi:
Substances chimiques
BNT162 Vaccine
0
ChAdOx1 nCoV-19
B5S3K2V0G8
COVID-19 Vaccines
0
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
4325Subventions
Organisme : Wellcome Trust
Pays : United Kingdom
Organisme : Department of Health
ID : NIHR200908
Pays : United Kingdom
Organisme : Medical Research Council
ID : MR/R015600/1
Pays : United Kingdom
Informations de copyright
© 2023. The Author(s).
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