Trends in disease burden of hepatitis B infection in Jiangsu Province, China, 1990-2021.
Age-period-cohort model
HBV
Joinpoint regression model
Systematic clustering
Journal
Infectious Disease Modelling
ISSN: 2468-0427
Titre abrégé: Infect Dis Model
Pays: China
ID NLM: 101692406
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Sep 2023
Sep 2023
Historique:
received:
06
04
2023
revised:
03
07
2023
accepted:
09
07
2023
medline:
31
7
2023
pubmed:
31
7
2023
entrez:
31
7
2023
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
The incidence of hepatitis B virus (HBV) has decreased year by year in China after the expansion of vaccination, but there is still a high disease burden in Jiangsu Province of China. The year-by-year incidence data of HBV in Jiangsu Province from 1990 to 2021 were collected. The incidence rates of males and females age groups were clustered by systematic clustering, and the incidence rates of each age group were analyzed and studied by using Joinpoint regression model and age-period-cohort effect model (APC). Joinpoint regression model and APC model showed a general decrease in HBV prevalence in both males and females. In addition, the results of the APC model showed that the age, period, and cohort effects of patients all affected the incidence of HBV, and the incidence was higher in males than in females. The incidence is highest in the population between the ages of 15 and 30 years (mean: 21.76/100,000), especially in males (mean: 31.53/100,000) than in females (mean:11.67/100,000). Another high-risk group is those over 60 years of age (mean: 21.40/100,000), especially males (mean: 31.17/100,000) than females (mean: 11.63/100,000). The period effect of the APC model suggests that HBV vaccination is effective in reducing the incidence of HBV in the population. The incidence of HBV in Jiangsu Province showed a gradual downward trend, but the disease burden in males was higher than that in females. The incidence is higher and increasing rapidly in the population between the ages of 15 and 30 years and people over 60 years of age. More targeted prevention and control measures should be implemented for males and the elderly.
Sections du résumé
Background
UNASSIGNED
The incidence of hepatitis B virus (HBV) has decreased year by year in China after the expansion of vaccination, but there is still a high disease burden in Jiangsu Province of China.
Methods
UNASSIGNED
The year-by-year incidence data of HBV in Jiangsu Province from 1990 to 2021 were collected. The incidence rates of males and females age groups were clustered by systematic clustering, and the incidence rates of each age group were analyzed and studied by using Joinpoint regression model and age-period-cohort effect model (APC).
Results
UNASSIGNED
Joinpoint regression model and APC model showed a general decrease in HBV prevalence in both males and females. In addition, the results of the APC model showed that the age, period, and cohort effects of patients all affected the incidence of HBV, and the incidence was higher in males than in females. The incidence is highest in the population between the ages of 15 and 30 years (mean: 21.76/100,000), especially in males (mean: 31.53/100,000) than in females (mean:11.67/100,000). Another high-risk group is those over 60 years of age (mean: 21.40/100,000), especially males (mean: 31.17/100,000) than females (mean: 11.63/100,000). The period effect of the APC model suggests that HBV vaccination is effective in reducing the incidence of HBV in the population.
Conclusions
UNASSIGNED
The incidence of HBV in Jiangsu Province showed a gradual downward trend, but the disease burden in males was higher than that in females. The incidence is higher and increasing rapidly in the population between the ages of 15 and 30 years and people over 60 years of age. More targeted prevention and control measures should be implemented for males and the elderly.
Identifiants
pubmed: 37520113
doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2023.07.007
pii: S2468-0427(23)00065-9
pmc: PMC10371820
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Pagination
832-841Informations de copyright
© 2023 The Authors.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
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