Machine learning-based prediction of in-hospital death for patients with takotsubo syndrome: The InterTAK-ML model.
Artificial intelligence
Machine learning
Mortality prediction
Outcome
Takotsubo syndrome
Journal
European journal of heart failure
ISSN: 1879-0844
Titre abrégé: Eur J Heart Fail
Pays: England
ID NLM: 100887595
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
31 Jul 2023
31 Jul 2023
Historique:
revised:
01
07
2023
received:
23
03
2023
accepted:
26
07
2023
pubmed:
31
7
2023
medline:
31
7
2023
entrez:
31
7
2023
Statut:
aheadofprint
Résumé
Takotsubo syndrome (TTS) is associated with a substantial rate of adverse events. We sought to design a machine learning (ML)-based model to predict the risk of in-hospital death and to perform a clustering of TTS patients to identify different risk profiles. A ridge logistic regression-based ML model for predicting in-hospital death was developed on 3482 TTS patients from the International Takotsubo (InterTAK) Registry, randomly split in a train and an internal validation cohort (75% and 25% of the sample size, respectively) and evaluated in an external validation cohort (1037 patients). Thirty-one clinically relevant variables were included in the prediction model. Model performance represented the primary endpoint and was assessed according to area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity and specificity. As secondary endpoint, a K-medoids clustering algorithm was designed to stratify patients into phenotypic groups based on the 10 most relevant features emerging from the main model. The overall incidence of in-hospital death was 5.2%. The InterTAK-ML model showed an AUC of 0.89 (0.85-0.92), a sensitivity of 0.85 (0.78-0.95) and a specificity of 0.76 (0.74-0.79) in the internal validation cohort and an AUC of 0.82 (0.73-0.91), a sensitivity of 0.74 (0.61-0.87) and a specificity of 0.79 (0.77-0.81) in the external cohort for in-hospital death prediction. By exploiting the 10 variables showing the highest feature importance, TTS patients were clustered into six groups associated with different risks of in-hospital death (28.8% vs. 15.5% vs. 5.4% vs. 1.0.8% vs. 0.5%) which were consistent also in the external cohort. A ML-based approach for the identification of TTS patients at risk of adverse short-term prognosis is feasible and effective. The InterTAK-ML model showed unprecedented discriminative capability for the prediction of in-hospital death.
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Informations de copyright
© 2023 The Authors. European Journal of Heart Failure published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of European Society of Cardiology.
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