Population immunity of natural infection, primary-series vaccination, and booster vaccination in Qatar during the COVID-19 pandemic: an observational study.

COVID-19 Epidemiology Immunity Natural infection Test-negative Vaccine

Journal

EClinicalMedicine
ISSN: 2589-5370
Titre abrégé: EClinicalMedicine
Pays: England
ID NLM: 101733727

Informations de publication

Date de publication:
Aug 2023
Historique:
received: 28 04 2023
revised: 29 06 2023
accepted: 29 06 2023
medline: 3 8 2023
pubmed: 3 8 2023
entrez: 3 8 2023
Statut: epublish

Résumé

Waning of natural infection protection and vaccine protection highlight the need to evaluate changes in population immunity over time. Population immunity of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection or of COVID-19 vaccination are defined, respectively, as the overall protection against reinfection or against breakthrough infection at a given point in time in a given population. We estimated these population immunities in Qatar's population between July 1, 2020 and November 30, 2022, to discern generic features of the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2. Effectiveness of previous infection, mRNA primary-series vaccination, and mRNA booster (third-dose) vaccination in preventing infection were estimated, month by month, using matched, test-negative, case-control studies. Previous-infection effectiveness against reinfection was strong before emergence of Omicron, but declined with time after a wave and rebounded after a new wave. Effectiveness dropped after Omicron emergence from 88.3% (95% CI: 84.8-91.0%) in November 2021 to 51.0% (95% CI: 48.3-53.6%) in December 2021. Primary-series effectiveness against infection was 84.0% (95% CI: 83.0-85.0%) in April 2021, soon after introduction of vaccination, before waning gradually to 52.7% (95% CI: 46.5-58.2%) by November 2021. Effectiveness declined linearly by ∼1 percentage point every 5 days. After Omicron emergence, effectiveness dropped from 52.7% (95% CI: 46.5-58.2%) in November 2021 to negligible levels in December 2021. Booster effectiveness dropped after Omicron emergence from 83.0% (95% CI: 65.6-91.6%) in November 2021 to 32.9% (95% CI: 26.7-38.5%) in December 2021, and continued to decline thereafter. Effectiveness of previous infection and vaccination against severe, critical, or fatal COVID-19 were generally >80% throughout the study duration. High population immunity against infection may not be sustained beyond a year, but population immunity against severe COVID-19 is durable with slow waning even after Omicron emergence. The Biomedical Research Program and the Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and the Biomathematics Research Core, both at Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Ministry of Public Health, Hamad Medical Corporation, Sidra Medicine, Qatar Genome Programme, Qatar University Biomedical Research Center, and Qatar University Internal Grant ID QUCG-CAS-23/24-114.

Sections du résumé

Background UNASSIGNED
Waning of natural infection protection and vaccine protection highlight the need to evaluate changes in population immunity over time. Population immunity of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection or of COVID-19 vaccination are defined, respectively, as the overall protection against reinfection or against breakthrough infection at a given point in time in a given population.
Methods UNASSIGNED
We estimated these population immunities in Qatar's population between July 1, 2020 and November 30, 2022, to discern generic features of the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2. Effectiveness of previous infection, mRNA primary-series vaccination, and mRNA booster (third-dose) vaccination in preventing infection were estimated, month by month, using matched, test-negative, case-control studies.
Findings UNASSIGNED
Previous-infection effectiveness against reinfection was strong before emergence of Omicron, but declined with time after a wave and rebounded after a new wave. Effectiveness dropped after Omicron emergence from 88.3% (95% CI: 84.8-91.0%) in November 2021 to 51.0% (95% CI: 48.3-53.6%) in December 2021. Primary-series effectiveness against infection was 84.0% (95% CI: 83.0-85.0%) in April 2021, soon after introduction of vaccination, before waning gradually to 52.7% (95% CI: 46.5-58.2%) by November 2021. Effectiveness declined linearly by ∼1 percentage point every 5 days. After Omicron emergence, effectiveness dropped from 52.7% (95% CI: 46.5-58.2%) in November 2021 to negligible levels in December 2021. Booster effectiveness dropped after Omicron emergence from 83.0% (95% CI: 65.6-91.6%) in November 2021 to 32.9% (95% CI: 26.7-38.5%) in December 2021, and continued to decline thereafter. Effectiveness of previous infection and vaccination against severe, critical, or fatal COVID-19 were generally >80% throughout the study duration.
Interpretation UNASSIGNED
High population immunity against infection may not be sustained beyond a year, but population immunity against severe COVID-19 is durable with slow waning even after Omicron emergence.
Funding UNASSIGNED
The Biomedical Research Program and the Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and the Biomathematics Research Core, both at Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Ministry of Public Health, Hamad Medical Corporation, Sidra Medicine, Qatar Genome Programme, Qatar University Biomedical Research Center, and Qatar University Internal Grant ID QUCG-CAS-23/24-114.

Identifiants

DOI: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2023.102102 PMID: 37533414 PMC: PMC10393554
pubmed: 37533414
doi: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2023.102102
pii: S2589-5370(23)00279-1
pmc: PMC10393554
doi:

Types de publication

Journal Article

Langues

eng

Pagination

102102

Informations de copyright

© 2023 The Author(s).

Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts

We declare no competing interests.

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Auteurs

Suelen H Qassim (SH)

Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar.
World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation - Education City, Doha, Qatar.
Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, NY, USA.

Hiam Chemaitelly (H)

Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar.
World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation - Education City, Doha, Qatar.
Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, NY, USA.

Houssein H Ayoub (HH)

Mathematics Program, Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, College of Arts and Sciences, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar.

Peter Coyle (P)

Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar.
Biomedical Research Center, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar.
Wellcome-Wolfson Institute for Experimental Medicine, Queens University, Belfast, United Kingdom.

Patrick Tang (P)

Department of Pathology, Sidra Medicine, Doha, Qatar.

Hadi M Yassine (HM)

Biomedical Research Center, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar.
Department of Biomedical Science, College of Health Sciences, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar.

Asmaa A Al Thani (AA)

Biomedical Research Center, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar.
Department of Biomedical Science, College of Health Sciences, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar.

Hebah A Al-Khatib (HA)

Biomedical Research Center, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar.
Department of Biomedical Science, College of Health Sciences, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar.

Mohammad R Hasan (MR)

Department of Pathology, Sidra Medicine, Doha, Qatar.

Zaina Al-Kanaani (Z)

Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar.

Einas Al-Kuwari (E)

Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar.

Andrew Jeremijenko (A)

Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar.

Anvar Hassan Kaleeckal (AH)

Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar.

Ali Nizar Latif (AN)

Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar.

Riyazuddin Mohammad Shaik (RM)

Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar.

Hanan F Abdul-Rahim (HF)

Department of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar.

Gheyath K Nasrallah (GK)

Biomedical Research Center, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar.
Department of Biomedical Science, College of Health Sciences, Member of QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar.

Mohamed Ghaith Al-Kuwari (MG)

Primary Health Care Corporation, Doha, Qatar.

Adeel A Butt (AA)

Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, NY, USA.
Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar.
Department of Medicine, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, NY, USA.

Hamad Eid Al-Romaihi (HE)

Ministry of Public Health, Doha, Qatar.

Mohamed H Al-Thani (MH)

Ministry of Public Health, Doha, Qatar.

Abdullatif Al-Khal (A)

Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar.

Roberto Bertollini (R)

Ministry of Public Health, Doha, Qatar.

Laith J Abu-Raddad (LJ)

Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Doha, Qatar.
World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation - Education City, Doha, Qatar.
Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, NY, USA.
Department of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, QU Health, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar.
College of Health and Life Sciences, Hamad Bin Khalifa University, Doha, Qatar.

Classifications MeSH