Heterogeneity in network structure switches the dominant transmission mode of infectious diseases.
heterogeneous transmission
multiple transmission routes
public health intervention
sexually transmitted infection
Journal
PNAS nexus
ISSN: 2752-6542
Titre abrégé: PNAS Nexus
Pays: England
ID NLM: 9918367777906676
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Aug 2023
Aug 2023
Historique:
received:
23
11
2022
revised:
20
06
2023
accepted:
29
06
2023
medline:
3
8
2023
pubmed:
3
8
2023
entrez:
3
8
2023
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Several recent emerging diseases have exhibited both sexual and nonsexual transmission modes (Ebola, Zika, and mpox). In the recent mpox outbreaks, transmission through sexual contacts appears to be the dominant mode of transmission. Motivated by this, we use an SIR-like model to argue that an initially dominant sexual transmission mode can be overtaken by casual transmission at later stages, even if the basic casual reproduction number is less than one. Our results highlight the risk of intervention designs which are informed only by the early dynamics of the disease.
Identifiants
pubmed: 37533729
doi: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad227
pii: pgad227
pmc: PMC10393287
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Pagination
pgad227Informations de copyright
© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of National Academy of Sciences.
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