Mapping the sociodemographic distribution and self-reported justifications for non-compliance with COVID-19 guidelines in the United Kingdom.

Which population factors have predisposed people to disregard government safety guidelines during the COVID-19 pandemic and what justifications do they give for this non-compliance? To address these questions, we analyse fixed-choice and free-text responses to survey questions about compliance and government handling of the pandemic, collected from tens of thousands of members of the UK public at three 6-monthly timepoints. We report that sceptical opinions about the government and mainstream-media narrative, especially as pertaining to justification for guidelines, significantly predict non-compliance. However, free text topic modelling shows that such opinions are diverse, spanning from scepticism about government competence and self-interest to full-blown conspiracy theories, and covary in prevalence with sociodemographic variables. These results indicate that attempts to counter non-compliance through argument should account for this diversity in peoples' underlying opinions, and inform conversations aimed at bridging the gap between the general public and bodies of authority accordingly.

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Copyright © 2023 Bălăeț, Kurtin, Gruia, Lerede, Custovic, Trender, Jolly, Hellyer and Hampshire.

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AH is owner and director of Future Cognition LTD and H2 Cognitive Designs LTD, which support online studies and develop custom cognitive assessment software, respectively. PH is owner and director of H2 Cognitive Designs LTD and reports personal fees from H2 Cognitive Designs LTD outside the submitted work. The remaining authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.