estimateR: an R package to estimate and monitor the effective reproductive number.
COVID-19
Effective reproductive number
Epidemiology
Monitoring
Outbreak
R package
Re
Rt
Surveillance
Journal
BMC bioinformatics
ISSN: 1471-2105
Titre abrégé: BMC Bioinformatics
Pays: England
ID NLM: 100965194
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
11 Aug 2023
11 Aug 2023
Historique:
received:
28
06
2022
accepted:
24
07
2023
medline:
14
8
2023
pubmed:
12
8
2023
entrez:
11
8
2023
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Accurate estimation of the effective reproductive number ([Formula: see text]) of epidemic outbreaks is of central relevance to public health policy and decision making. We present estimateR, an R package for the estimation of the reproductive number through time from delayed observations of infection events. Such delayed observations include confirmed cases, hospitalizations or deaths. The package implements the methodology of Huisman et al. but modularizes the [Formula: see text] estimation procedure to allow easy implementation of new alternatives to the currently available methods. Users can tailor their analyses according to their particular use case by choosing among implemented options. The estimateR R package allows users to estimate the effective reproductive number of an epidemic outbreak based on observed cases, hospitalization, death or any other type of event documenting past infections, in a fast and timely fashion. We validated the implementation with a simulation study: estimateR yielded estimates comparable to alternative publicly available methods while being around two orders of magnitude faster. We then applied estimateR to empirical case-confirmation incidence data for COVID-19 in nine countries and for dengue fever in Brazil; in parallel, estimateR is already being applied (i) to SARS-CoV-2 measurements in wastewater data and (ii) to study influenza transmission based on wastewater and clinical data in other studies. In summary, this R package provides a fast and flexible implementation to estimate the effective reproductive number for various diseases and datasets. The estimateR R package is a modular and extendable tool designed for outbreak surveillance and retrospective outbreak investigation. It extends the method developed for COVID-19 by Huisman et al. and makes it available for a variety of pathogens, outbreak scenarios, and observation types. Estimates obtained with estimateR can be interpreted directly or used to inform more complex epidemic models (e.g. for forecasting) on the value of [Formula: see text].
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
BACKGROUND
Accurate estimation of the effective reproductive number ([Formula: see text]) of epidemic outbreaks is of central relevance to public health policy and decision making. We present estimateR, an R package for the estimation of the reproductive number through time from delayed observations of infection events. Such delayed observations include confirmed cases, hospitalizations or deaths. The package implements the methodology of Huisman et al. but modularizes the [Formula: see text] estimation procedure to allow easy implementation of new alternatives to the currently available methods. Users can tailor their analyses according to their particular use case by choosing among implemented options.
RESULTS
RESULTS
The estimateR R package allows users to estimate the effective reproductive number of an epidemic outbreak based on observed cases, hospitalization, death or any other type of event documenting past infections, in a fast and timely fashion. We validated the implementation with a simulation study: estimateR yielded estimates comparable to alternative publicly available methods while being around two orders of magnitude faster. We then applied estimateR to empirical case-confirmation incidence data for COVID-19 in nine countries and for dengue fever in Brazil; in parallel, estimateR is already being applied (i) to SARS-CoV-2 measurements in wastewater data and (ii) to study influenza transmission based on wastewater and clinical data in other studies. In summary, this R package provides a fast and flexible implementation to estimate the effective reproductive number for various diseases and datasets.
CONCLUSIONS
CONCLUSIONS
The estimateR R package is a modular and extendable tool designed for outbreak surveillance and retrospective outbreak investigation. It extends the method developed for COVID-19 by Huisman et al. and makes it available for a variety of pathogens, outbreak scenarios, and observation types. Estimates obtained with estimateR can be interpreted directly or used to inform more complex epidemic models (e.g. for forecasting) on the value of [Formula: see text].
Identifiants
pubmed: 37568078
doi: 10.1186/s12859-023-05428-4
pii: 10.1186/s12859-023-05428-4
pmc: PMC10416499
doi:
Substances chimiques
Wastewater
0
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
310Subventions
Organisme : Swiss National Science Foundation
ID : 31CA30 196267
Pays : Switzerland
Informations de copyright
© 2023. BioMed Central Ltd., part of Springer Nature.
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