Development, validation, and prognostic evaluation of a risk score for long-term liver-related outcomes in the general population: a multicohort study.

BACKGROUND

Liver cirrhosis is a major cause of death worldwide. Cirrhosis develops after a long asymptomatic period of fibrosis progression, with the diagnosis frequently occurring late, when major complications or cancer develop. Few reliable tools exist for timely identification of individuals at risk of cirrhosis to allow for early intervention. We aimed to develop a novel score to identify individuals at risk for future liver-related outcomes.

METHODS

We derived the LiverRisk score from an international prospective cohort of individuals from six countries without known liver disease from the general population, who underwent liver fibrosis assessment by transient elastography. The score included age, sex, and six standard laboratory variables. We created four groups: minimal risk, low risk, medium risk, and high risk according to selected cutoff values of the LiverRisk score (6, 10, and 15). The model's discriminatory accuracy and calibration were externally validated in two prospective cohorts from the general population. Moreover, we ascertained the prognostic value of the score in the prediction of liver-related outcomes in participants without known liver disease with median follow-up of 12 years (UK Biobank cohort).

FINDINGS

We included 14 726 participants: 6357 (43·2%) in the derivation cohort, 4370 (29·7%) in the first external validation cohort, and 3999 (27·2%) in the second external validation cohort. The score accurately predicted liver stiffness in the development and external validation cohorts, and was superior to conventional serum biomarkers of fibrosis, as measured by area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve (AUC; 0·83 [95% CI [0·78-0·89]) versus the fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4; 0·68 [0·61-0·75] at 10 kPa). The score was effective in identifying individuals at risk of liver-related mortality, liver-related hospitalisation, and liver cancer, thereby allowing stratification to different risk groups for liver-related outcomes. The hazard ratio for liver-related mortality in the high-risk group was 471 (95% CI 347-641) compared with the minimal risk group, and the overall AUC of the score in predicting 10-year liver-related mortality was 0·90 (0·88-0·91) versus 0.84 (0·82-0·86) for FIB-4.

INTERPRETATION

The LiverRisk score, based on simple parameters, predicted liver fibrosis and future development of liver-related outcomes in the general population. The score might allow for stratification of individuals according to liver risk and thus guide preventive care.

FUNDING

European Commission under the H20/20 programme; Fondo de Investigación Sanitaria de Salud; Instituto de Salud Carlos III; Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry, and Competitiveness; the European Regional Development Fund; and the German Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF).

Informations de copyright

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Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts

Declaration of interests PN reports grants from Novo Nordisk and has received consulting fees from Novo Nordisk, Boehringer Ingelheim, Gilead, Intercept, Poxel Pharmaceuticals, Bristol Myers Squibb (BMS), Pfizer, Sun Pharma, Madrigal and GSK. He also reports honoraria as a speaker for Novo Nordisk and AiCME; upport for attending meetings from for Novo Nordisk; and participation on an advisory board for Novo Nordisk, Boehringer Ingelheim, Gilead, Intercept, Poxel Pharmaceuticals, BMS, Pfizer, Sun Pharma, Madrigal, and GSK. AK reports grants from EU Horizon 2020, Novo Nordisk Foundation, Danish National Research Foundation, Region of Southern Denmark; royalties or licenses from Gyldendal; has served as speaker for Norgine, Siemens and Nordic Bioscience; patents from Region of Southern Denmark and University of Southern Denmark; has participated in advisory boards for Norgine and Siemens; has been Vice Secretary European Association for the Study of The Liver (EASL); and received other services from Norgine, Siemens and Echosens. LC has served as speaker for Echosens and Nordic Bioscience; and received consulting fees from Echosens, Madrigal, MSD, Novo Nordisk, Pfizer and Sagimet. LaC reports a grant from Gilead, has received consulting fees from Echosens, Madrigal, MSD, Novo Nordisk, Pfizer and Sagimet; and payment as a speaker for Echosens and Novo Nordisk. AMA reports a grant from Novo Nordisk, Pfizer, and Target Pharma; and has received consulting fees from Novo Nordisk. RJdK reports a grant from GSK, Gilead, Janssen, Inventiva, and Echosens; has served as speaker for Abbvie, Gilead, and Echosens; and has received consulting fees from Abbvie and Gilead. NF has received consulting fees from Gilead. PGa has served as speaker for Bayer, Adaptimmune, Sirtex, Lilly, Roche and Ipsen; and received consulting fees from Bayer, Boston Scientific, AstraZeneca, Adaptimmune, BMS, Eisai, MSD, Sirtex, Lilly, Roche, Guerbet, and Ipsen. IGr participated in advisory boards for GE healthcare; and has served as speaker for Roche and Siemens. ING reports a grant from Gilead. RuH served as speaker for the American Gastroenterological Association and was a manuscript reviewer for GUT; reports support for lectures at the University of Navarra, Pamplona, Spain; and was an external advisor for LiverHope 2020. He also participated in the Steering committee of AASLD-ACLF Special interest Group and Practice Guidelines Committee of AGA. PK reports a grant from Sequana; royalty for UpToDate; honorarium as an Associate Editor for Gastroenterology; and support for attending meeting of EASL and INASL. TK served as speaker for Gilead; has received consulting fees from Albireo and MSD; was a board member at Biomed Alliance; and reports a relationship of stock or stock option with Ultimovacs. JMP reports grants from the European Commission (EFPIA IMI2 853966-2 ISCIII PI19/01898, EFPIA IMI2 777377 ISCIII PI22/01770, and H2020 847989) and Ajuntament de Barcelona-Fundació La Caixa; served as speaker for Novartis, Novo Nordisk, and FLS; and received consulting fees from Boehringer-Ingelheim, MSD, and Novo Nordisk. He also received support from Rubió and NovoNordisk. SP reports a grant from the European Association for the Study of the Liver and the Italian Ministry of Health; received consulting fees from Protein Plasma Therapeutics Assocation and Resolution Therapeutics; and served as speaker for Grifols. He participated in an advisory board of Mallinckrodt. JS reports grants from Gilead Sciences, Boehringer Ingelheim, and Siemens Healthcare; served as speaker for Boehringer Ingelheim, Echosens, MedPublico GmbH, Novo Nordisk, Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Histoindex, and MedPublico; received consulting fees from Apollo Endosurgery, Bayer, Boehringer Ingelheim, BMS, Gilead Sciences, GSK, Intercept Pharmaceuticals, Ipsen, Inventiva Pharma, Madrigal, MSD, Northsea Therapeutics, Novartis, Novo Nordisk, Pfizer, Roche, Sanofi, and Siemens Healthineers; and reports stock or stock options with AGED diagnostics and Hepta Bio. MSB reports a grant from LiverRisk score. MTh is supported by a grant from the Novo Nordisk Foundation (NNF20OC0059393); and served as speaker for Echosens, Siemens Healthcare, Tillotts Pharma, and Norgine; received consulting fees from Ge Healthcare; reports scientific advisory board membership for ID-LIVER (research project); and is a board member of Alcohol & Society (non-governmental organisation, Denmark). VW-SW reports a grant from Gilead Sciences served as speaker for Abbott, AbbVie, Gilead Sciences, Novo Nordisk, and Unilab; reports support from Gilead Sciences; has stock options from Illuminatio Medical Technology; and has received consulting fees from AbbVie, Boehringer Ingelheim, Echosens, Gilead Sciences, Intercept, Inventiva, Novo Nordisk, Pfizer, Sagimet Biosciences, TARGET PharmaSolutions. MGR reports a grant from Gliead Sciences; served as speaker for Gilead, Abbvie, and Advanz; and reports support from Gilead and Abbvie. DR received honoraria as speaker from Gilead and Abbvie; and received support for meetings and travel from Gilead and AbbVie. PG has received research funding from Gilead, Mallinckrodt, Grifols, and Ferring. PG has consulted or attended advisory boards for Grifols SA, Ferring Pharmaceuticals, Gilead, Intercept, Martin Pharmaceuticals, Promethera, Sequana, RallyBio, SeaBeLife Merck Sharp and Dohme (MSD), and Behring; and received speaking fees from Pfizer. RMM has received honoraria as speaker from Gilead, Abbvie, and Advanz; reports support from Gilead, Abbvie, and Advanz and participated in an advisory board of Advanz. All other authors declare no competing interests.