Dynamic modeling and data fitting of climatic and environmental factors and people's behavior factors on hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in Shanghai, China.
Basic reproduction number
Distributed lag nonlinear model
Hand, foot, and mouth disease
Relative humidity
School opening and closing
Temperature
Journal
Heliyon
ISSN: 2405-8440
Titre abrégé: Heliyon
Pays: England
ID NLM: 101672560
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Aug 2023
Aug 2023
Historique:
received:
09
12
2022
revised:
08
07
2023
accepted:
11
07
2023
medline:
14
8
2023
pubmed:
14
8
2023
entrez:
14
8
2023
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) appear to be a multi-wave outbreak with unknown mechanisms. We investigate the effects of climatic and environmental factors and changes in people's behavior factors that may be caused by external factors: temperature, relative humidity, and school opening and closing. Distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) and dynamic model are used to research multi-wave outbreaks of HFMD. Climatic and environmental factors impact on transmission rate Relative risk (RR) of HFMD infection increases with increasing temperature. The RR of infection first increases and then decreases with the increase of relative humidity. For the model fitting HFMD dynamic, time average basic reproduction number We obtain three conclusions about the prevention and control of HFMD. 1) According to the temperature, relative humidity and school start time, the outbreak peak of HFMD should be warned and targeted prevention and control measures should be taken. 2) Reduce high indoor temperature when more than 31.5
Sections du résumé
Background
UNASSIGNED
Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) appear to be a multi-wave outbreak with unknown mechanisms. We investigate the effects of climatic and environmental factors and changes in people's behavior factors that may be caused by external factors: temperature, relative humidity, and school opening and closing.
Methods
UNASSIGNED
Distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) and dynamic model are used to research multi-wave outbreaks of HFMD. Climatic and environmental factors impact on transmission rate
Results
UNASSIGNED
Relative risk (RR) of HFMD infection increases with increasing temperature. The RR of infection first increases and then decreases with the increase of relative humidity. For the model fitting HFMD dynamic, time average basic reproduction number
Conclusion
UNASSIGNED
We obtain three conclusions about the prevention and control of HFMD. 1) According to the temperature, relative humidity and school start time, the outbreak peak of HFMD should be warned and targeted prevention and control measures should be taken. 2) Reduce high indoor temperature when more than 31.5
Identifiants
pubmed: 37576260
doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e18212
pii: S2405-8440(23)05420-8
pmc: PMC10412780
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Pagination
e18212Informations de copyright
© 2023 Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
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