ERS: A simple scoring system to predict early recurrence after surgical resection for hepatocellular carcinoma.
hepatocellular carcinoma
prediction
recurrence
resection
Journal
Liver international : official journal of the International Association for the Study of the Liver
ISSN: 1478-3231
Titre abrégé: Liver Int
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 101160857
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
11 2023
11 2023
Historique:
revised:
20
06
2023
received:
02
10
2022
accepted:
17
07
2023
medline:
23
10
2023
pubmed:
14
8
2023
entrez:
14
8
2023
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Surgical resection (SR) is a potentially curative treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) hampered by high rates of recurrence. New drugs are tested in the adjuvant setting, but standardised risk stratification tools of HCC recurrence are lacking. To develop and validate a simple scoring system to predict 2-year recurrence after SR for HCC. 2359 treatment-naïve patients who underwent SR for HCC in 17 centres in Europe and Asia between 2004 and 2017 were divided into a development (DS; n = 1558) and validation set (VS; n = 801) by random sampling of participating centres. The Early Recurrence Score (ERS) was generated using variables associated with 2-year recurrence in the DS and validated in the VS. Variables associated with 2-year recurrence in the DS were (with associated points) alpha-fetoprotein (<10 ng/mL:0; 10-100: 2; >100: 3), size of largest nodule (≥40 mm: 1), multifocality (yes: 2), satellite nodules (yes: 2), vascular invasion (yes: 1) and surgical margin (positive R1: 2). The sum of points provided a score ranging from 0 to 11, allowing stratification into four levels of 2-year recurrence risk (Wolbers' C-indices 66.8% DS and 68.4% VS), with excellent calibration according to risk categories. Wolber's and Harrell's C-indices apparent values were systematically higher for ERS when compared to Early Recurrence After Surgery for Liver tumour post-operative model to predict time to early recurrence or recurrence-free survival. ERS is a user-friendly staging system identifying four levels of early recurrence risk after SR and a robust tool to design personalised surveillance strategies and adjuvant therapy trials.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
Surgical resection (SR) is a potentially curative treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) hampered by high rates of recurrence. New drugs are tested in the adjuvant setting, but standardised risk stratification tools of HCC recurrence are lacking.
OBJECTIVES
To develop and validate a simple scoring system to predict 2-year recurrence after SR for HCC.
METHODS
2359 treatment-naïve patients who underwent SR for HCC in 17 centres in Europe and Asia between 2004 and 2017 were divided into a development (DS; n = 1558) and validation set (VS; n = 801) by random sampling of participating centres. The Early Recurrence Score (ERS) was generated using variables associated with 2-year recurrence in the DS and validated in the VS.
RESULTS
Variables associated with 2-year recurrence in the DS were (with associated points) alpha-fetoprotein (<10 ng/mL:0; 10-100: 2; >100: 3), size of largest nodule (≥40 mm: 1), multifocality (yes: 2), satellite nodules (yes: 2), vascular invasion (yes: 1) and surgical margin (positive R1: 2). The sum of points provided a score ranging from 0 to 11, allowing stratification into four levels of 2-year recurrence risk (Wolbers' C-indices 66.8% DS and 68.4% VS), with excellent calibration according to risk categories. Wolber's and Harrell's C-indices apparent values were systematically higher for ERS when compared to Early Recurrence After Surgery for Liver tumour post-operative model to predict time to early recurrence or recurrence-free survival.
CONCLUSIONS
ERS is a user-friendly staging system identifying four levels of early recurrence risk after SR and a robust tool to design personalised surveillance strategies and adjuvant therapy trials.
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
2538-2547Informations de copyright
© 2023 The Authors. Liver International published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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