Time-varying overdispersion of SARS-CoV-2 transmission during the periods when different variants of concern were circulating in Japan.
Journal
Scientific reports
ISSN: 2045-2322
Titre abrégé: Sci Rep
Pays: England
ID NLM: 101563288
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
14 08 2023
14 08 2023
Historique:
received:
06
12
2022
accepted:
30
06
2023
medline:
17
8
2023
pubmed:
15
8
2023
entrez:
14
8
2023
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Japan has implemented a cluster-based approach for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from the pandemic's beginning based on the transmission heterogeneity (overdispersion) of severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). However, studies analyzing overdispersion of transmission among new variants of concerns (VOCs), especially for Omicron, were limited. Thus, we aimed to clarify how the transmission heterogeneity has changed with the emergence of VOCs (Alpha, Delta, and Omicron) using detailed contact tracing data in Yamagata Prefecture, Japan. We estimated the time-varying dispersion parameter ([Formula: see text]) by fitting a negative binomial distribution for each transmission generation. Our results showed that even after the emergence of VOCs, there was transmission heterogeneity of SARS-CoV-2, with changes in [Formula: see text] during each wave. Continuous monitoring of transmission dynamics is vital for implementing appropriate measures. However, a feasible and sustainable epidemiological analysis system should be established to make this possible.
Identifiants
pubmed: 37580339
doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-38007-x
pii: 10.1038/s41598-023-38007-x
pmc: PMC10425347
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
13230Informations de copyright
© 2023. Springer Nature Limited.
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