Projected climate extremes over agro-climatic zones of Ganga River Basin under 1.5, 2, and 3° global warming levels.
CMIP6
Extreme
Indices
Precipitation
Temperature
Warming levels
Journal
Environmental monitoring and assessment
ISSN: 1573-2959
Titre abrégé: Environ Monit Assess
Pays: Netherlands
ID NLM: 8508350
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
17 Aug 2023
17 Aug 2023
Historique:
received:
16
03
2023
accepted:
01
08
2023
medline:
21
8
2023
pubmed:
18
8
2023
entrez:
17
8
2023
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Recurring floods, droughts, heatwaves, and other hydro-meteorological extreme events are likely to be increased under the climate change scenarios. The increased risk of these extreme events might have more exposure to the population; thus, it is important to discuss such extreme events and their projected behavior under a changing climate scenario. In the present study, we have computed the extreme precipitation and temperature indices over the 10 agro-climatic zones falling under the Ganga River Basin (GRB)utilizing a high-resolution daily gridded temperature and precipitation multi-model ensembled CMIP6 dataset (0.25° × 0.25°) under global warming levels of 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C. We found that the annual daily minimum temperature (TNN) showed a higher rise of about 67% than the maximum temperature (TXX) of 48% in GRB. The basin also experiences a greater increase in the frequency of warm nights (TN90P) of about 67.71% compared to warm days (TX90P) of 29.1% for the 3 °C global warming level. Along with extreme indices, the population exposed due to the impact of the extreme maximum temperature has also been analyzed for progressive warming levels. Population exposure to extreme temperature event (TXX) has been analyzed with 20-year return period using GEV distribution method. The study concludes that the exposed population to extreme temperature event experienced an increase from 46.99 to 52.16% for the whole Ganga Basin. Consecutive dry days (CDD) and consecutive wet days (CWD) both show a significant increasing trend, but CWD has a significant increase in the majority of the zones, while CDD shows a significant decreasing trend for some of the zones for three warming levels periods. Extreme climate indices help to understand the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as heavy rainfall, droughts, and heatwaves to develop early warning systems and adaptation strategies to mitigate such events.
Identifiants
pubmed: 37592096
doi: 10.1007/s10661-023-11663-2
pii: 10.1007/s10661-023-11663-2
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
1062Informations de copyright
© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.
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