Modelling the impact of forest management and CO


Journal

Scientific reports
ISSN: 2045-2322
Titre abrégé: Sci Rep
Pays: England
ID NLM: 101563288

Informations de publication

Date de publication:
18 08 2023
Historique:
received: 08 02 2023
accepted: 31 07 2023
medline: 21 8 2023
pubmed: 19 8 2023
entrez: 18 8 2023
Statut: epublish

Résumé

Afforestation and reforestation to meet 'Net Zero' emissions targets are considered a necessary policy by many countries. Their potential benefits are usually assessed through forest carbon and growth models. The implementation of vegetation demography gives scope to represent forest management and other size-dependent processes within land surface models (LSMs). In this paper, we evaluate the impact of including management within an LSM that represents demography, using both in-situ and reanalysis climate drivers at a mature, upland Sitka spruce plantation in Northumberland, UK. We compare historical simulations with fixed and variable CO

Identifiants

pubmed: 37596319
doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-39810-2
pii: 10.1038/s41598-023-39810-2
pmc: PMC10439122
doi:

Substances chimiques

Carbon Dioxide 142M471B3J
Carbon 7440-44-0

Types de publication

Journal Article

Langues

eng

Sous-ensembles de citation

IM

Pagination

13487

Informations de copyright

© 2023. Springer Nature Limited.

Références

Popp, A. et al. Land-use futures in the shared socio-economic pathways. Glob. Environ. Change 42, 331–345 (2017).
Seddon, N. et al. Synthesis and recommendations for enhancing climate ambition and action by 2020 nature-based solutions in nationally determined contributions (2019).
Grassi, G. et al. Carbon fluxes from land 2000–2020: Bringing clarity to countries’ reporting. Earth Syst. Sci. Data 14, 4643–4666 (2022).
IPCC. 2006 IPCC guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories. https://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/vol4.html (2006).
Bateman, I. J. et al. A review of planting principles to identify the right place for the right tree for ‘net zero plus’ woodlands: Applying a place-based natural capital framework for sustainable, efficient and equitable (see) decisions. People Nat. https://doi.org/10.1002/pan3.10331 (2022).
doi: 10.1002/pan3.10331
Matthews, R. W., Jenkins, T. A. R., Mackie, E. D. & Dick, E. Forest yield a handbook on forest growth and yield tables for British forestry. (2016).
Black, K. et al. Carbon stock and stock changes across a sitka spruce chronosequence on surface-water gley soils. Forestry 82, 255–272 (2009).
Thomson, A., Evans, C., Buys, G. & Clilverd, H. Updated quantification of the impact of future land use scenarios to 2050 and beyond-final report. https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/updated-quantification-of-the-impact-of-future-land-use-scenarios-to-2050-and-beyond-uk-centre-for-ecology-and-hydrology/ (2020).
Milne, R., Brown, T. A. W. & Murray, T. D. The effect of geographical variation of planting rate on the uptake of carbon by new forests of great Britain. Forestry 71, 297–309 (1998).
Forest Research. Forest carbon dynamics: The CARBINE carbon accounting model. https://www.forestresearch.gov.uk/research/forestry-and-climate-change-mitigation/carbon-accounting/forest-carbon-dynamics-the-carbine-carbon-accounting-model/ .
Edwards, P. & Christie, J. Yield models for forest management forestry commission booklet 48. (1981)
Sturrock, R. N. et al. Climate change and forest diseases. Plant Pathol. 60, 133–149 (2011).
Morison, J. I. L. & Matthews, R. B. Forestry and agriculture climate change impacts: Report card 2016. https://www.ukri.org/publications/climate-change-impact-on-forestry-and-agriculture-lwec/ (2016).
Davies, S. et al. Drought risk to timber production: A risk versus return comparison of commercial conifer species in Scotland. For. Policy Econ. 117, 102189 (2020).
Zhou, S., Zhang, Y., Williams, A. P. & Gentine, P. Projected increases in intensity, frequency, and terrestrial carbon costs of compound drought and aridity events. https://www.science.org (2019).
Ray, D., Morison, J. & Broadmeadow, M. Climate change: Impacts and adaptation in England’s woodlands. https://www.forestresearch.gov.uk/research/climate-change-impacts/climate-change-impacts-and-adaptation-in-englands-woodlands/ (2010).
Mason, B. Managing mixed stands of conifers and broadleaves in upland forests in Britain: Information note. www.forestry.gov.uk (2006).
Hanewinkel, M., Cullmann, D. A., Schelhaas, M. J., Nabuurs, G. J. & Zimmermann, N. E. Climate change may cause severe loss in the economic value of European forest land. Nat. Clim. Change 3, 203–207 (2013).
Best, M. J. et al. The joint UK land environment simulator (Jules), model description—Part 1: Energy and water fluxes. Geosci. Model Dev. 4, 677–699 (2011).
Littleton, E. W. et al. Jules-be: Representation of bioenergy crops and harvesting in the joint UK land environment simulator vn5.1. Geosci. Model Dev. 13, 1123–1136 (2020).
Clark, D. B. et al. The joint uk land environment simulator (jules), model description—Part 2: Carbon fluxes and vegetation dynamics. Geosci. Model Dev. 4, 701–722 (2011).
Jones, S., Eller, C. B. & Cox, P. M. Application of feedback control to stomatal optimisation in a global land surface model. Front. Environ. Sci. 10, 2167 (2022).
Caen, A. et al. Evaluating two land surface models for Brazil using a full carbon cycle benchmark with uncertainties. Clim. Resil. Sustain. 1, e10 (2022).
Oliver, R. J. et al. Improved representation of plant physiology in the jules-vn5.6 land surface model: Photosynthesis, stomatal conductance and thermal acclimation. Geosci. Model Dev. 15, 5567–5592 (2022).
Argles, A. P. K., Moore, J. R. & Cox, P. M. Dynamic global vegetation models: Searching for the balance between demographic process representation and computational tractability. PLOS Clim. 1, e0000068 (2022).
Needham, J. F. et al. Tree crown damage and its effects on forest carbon cycling in a tropical forest. Glob. Chang. Biol. 28, 5560–5574 (2022).
pubmed: 35748712
Fisher, R. A. et al. Vegetation demographics in earth system models: A review of progress and priorities. Glob. Change Biol. 24, 35–54. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13910 (2018).
doi: 10.1111/gcb.13910
Rabin, S. S., Gérard, F. N. & Arneth, A. The influence of thinning and prescribed burning on future forest fires in fire-prone regions of Europe. Environ. Res. Lett. 17, 055010 (2022).
Bernal, B., Murray, L. T. & Pearson, T. R. H. Global carbon dioxide removal rates from forest landscape restoration activities. Carbon Balance Manag. 13, 1–13 (2018).
Collalti, A. et al. Thinning can reduce losses in carbon use efficiency and carbon stocks in managed forests under warmer climate. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst. 10, 2427–2452 (2018).
pubmed: 31007835 pmcid: 6472666
Robinson, E. L., Blyth, E. M., Clark, D. B., Comyn-Platt, E. & Rudd, A. Climate hydrology and ecology research support system meteorology dataset for Great Britain (1961–2017). CHESS-Met. https://doi.org/10.5285/2ab15bf0-ad08-415c-ba64-831168be7293 (2020).
doi: 10.5285/2ab15bf0-ad08-415c-ba64-831168be7293
Robinson, E., Huntingford, C., Shamsudheen, V. S. & Bullock, J. Future projections of meteorological variables at 1 km resolution for the United Kingdom 1980–2080 derived from UK climate projections 2018. CHESS-SCAPE https://doi.org/10.5285/8194b416cbee482b89e0dfbe17c5786c (2022).
doi: 10.5285/8194b416cbee482b89e0dfbe17c5786c
Petrescu, A. M. R. et al. The consolidated European synthesis of CO
Friedlingstein, P. et al. Global carbon budget 2021. Earth Syst. Sci. Data 14, 1917–2005 (2022).
Grassi, G. et al. The key role of forests in meeting climate targets requires science for credible mitigation. Nat. Clim. Change 7, 220–226 (2017).
Wiltshire, A. J., Randow, C., Rosan, T. M., Tejada, G. & Castro, A. A. Understanding the role of land-use emissions in achieving the Brazilian nationally determined contribution to mitigate climate change. Clim. Resil. Sustain. 1, e31 (2022).
Nabuurs, G.-J. et al. IPCC, 2022: Climate change 2022: Mitigation of climate change: Contribution of Working Group III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2022). https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157926.009 .
Xenakis, G., Ash, A., Siebicke, L., Perks, M. & Morison, J. I. L. Comparison of the carbon, water, and energy balances of mature stand and clear-fell stages in a British Sitka spruce forest and the impact of the 2018 drought. Agric. For. Meteorol. 306, 108437 (2021).
Bond-Lamberty, B., Wang, C. & Gower, S. T. A global relationship between the heterotrophic and autotrophic components of soil respiration?. Glob. Change Biol. 10, 1756–1766 (2004).
Jian, J. et al. The global contribution of roots to total soil respiration. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 31, 685–699 (2022).
Arcangeli, C., Klopf, M., Hale, S. E., Jenkins, T. A. R. & Hasenauer, H. The uniform height curve method for height-diameter modelling: an application to Sitka spruce in Britain. Forestry 87, 177–186. https://doi.org/10.1093/forestry/cpt041 (2014).
doi: 10.1093/forestry/cpt041
Argles, A. P. K. et al. Robust ecosystem demography (red version 1.0): A parsimonious approach to modelling vegetation dynamics in earth system models. Geosci. Model Dev. 13, 4067–4089 (2020).
Randle, T. J. & Jenkins, T. A. R. The construction of lookup tables for estimating changes in carbon stocks in forestry projects a background document for users of the Forestry Commission’s Woodland Carbon Code (2011).
Kerr, G. & Haufe, J. Thinning practice a silvicultural guide a silvicultural guide. https://www.forestresearch.gov.uk/publications/thinning-practice-a-silvicultural-guide/ (2011).
Woodland Carbon Code (WCC) (2021). WCC Carbon Calculation Guidance. UK Woodl. Carbon Code https://woodlandcarboncode.org.uk/standard-and-guidance/3-carbon-sequestration/3-3-project-carbon-sequestration#accountingforpcs (2021).
Nachtergaele, F. A. et al. The harmonized world soil database food and agriculture organization of the United Nations. Sci. Soil Solut. Chang. World (2010).
Pinnington, E. et al. Improving soil moisture prediction of a high-resolution land surface model by parameterising pedotransfer functions through assimilation of smap satellite data. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 25, 1617–1641 (2021).
Tans, P. & Keeling, R. S. Trends in Atmospheric carbon dioxide. NOAA/GML (Gml.Noaa.Gov/Ccgg/Trends/) and Scripps Institution of Oceanography (Scrippsco2.Ucsd.Edu/). https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/data.html (2022).
Lexerød, N. L. & Eid, T. An evaluation of different diameter diversity indices based on criteria related to forest management planning. For. Ecol. Manag. 222, 17–28 (2006).
Bose, A. K. et al. Tree-level growth and survival following commercial thinning of four major softwood species in North America. For. Ecol. Manag. 427, 355–364 (2018).
Pukkala, T., Laiho, O. & Lähde, E. Continuous cover management reduces wind damage. For. Ecol. Manag. 372, 120–127 (2016).
Mason, W. L., Edwards, C. & Hale, S. E. Survival and early seedling growth of conifers with different shade tolerance in a Sitka spruce spacing trial and relationship to understorey light climate. Silva Fenn. 38, 357–370 (2004).
Silver, G. T. Studies on the Sitka spruce weevil, Pissodes sitchensis, in British Columbia. Can. Entomol. 100, 93–110 (1968).
Harmon, M. E. & Pabst, R. J. The long-term effects of wind disturbance on a Sitka spruce-western hemlock forest. Forests 10, 119 (2019).
Cameron, A., Orr, D. & Clark, J. Variation in the incidence and severity of drought crack in three conifer species in North East Scotland. Scand. J. For. Res. 32, 658–662 (2017).
Hale, S. E., Levy, P. E. & Gardiner, B. A. Trade-offs between seedling growth, thinning and stand stability in Sitka spruce stands: A modelling analysis. For. Ecol. Manag. 187, 105–115 (2004).
Macdonald, E. & Hubert, J. A review of the effects of silviculture on timber quality of Sitka spruce. Forestry 75, 107–138 (2002).
Guiterman, C. H., Seymour, R. S. & Weiskittel, A. R. Long-term thinning effects on the leaf area of Pinus strobus L. as estimated from litterfall and individual-tree allometric models. For. Sci. 58, 85–93 (2012).
Dore, S. et al. Recovery of ponderosa pine ecosystem carbon and water fluxes from thinning and stand-replacing fire. Glob. Chang. Biol. 18, 3171–3185 (2012).
pubmed: 28741823
Sharma, M., Smith, M., Burkhart, H. E. & Amateis, R. L. Modeling the impact of thinning on height development of dominant and codominant loblolly pine trees. Ann. For. Sci. 63, 349–354 (2006).
Hamilton, G. J. The effects of high intensity thinning on yield. Forestry 54, 1–15 (1981).
Norby, R. J. Ecological and evolutionary lessons from free air carbon enhancement (face) experiments. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst. 42, 181–203 (2011).
Walker, A. P. et al. Decadal biomass increment in early secondary succession woody ecosystems is increased by CO
pubmed: 30765702 pmcid: 6376023
Mccarthy, H. R. et al. Temporal dynamics and spatial variability in the enhancement of canopy leaf area under elevated atmospheric co2. Glob. Change Biol. 13, 2479–2497 (2007).
Norby, R. J. et al. Forest stand and canopy development unaltered by 12 years of CO
pubmed: 34387351
Lindroth, A. et al. Effects of low thinning on carbon dioxide fluxes in a mixed hemiboreal forest. Agric. For. Meteorol. 262, 59–70 (2018).
De Kauwe, M. G. et al. Forest water use and water use efficiency at elevated CO
Terrer, C. et al. Ecosystem responses to elevated CO
doi: 10.1111/nph.14872 pubmed: 29105765
Nakhavali, M. A. et al. Representation of the phosphorus cycle in the joint UK land environment simulator (vn5.5_jules-cnp). Geosci. Model Dev. 15, 5241–5269 (2022).
Wiltshire, A. J. et al. Jules-cn: A coupled terrestrial carbon-nitrogen scheme (jules vn5.1). Geosci. Model Dev. 14, 2161–2186 (2021).
Head, M. et al. Temporally-differentiated biogenic carbon accounting of wood building product life cycles. SN Appl. Sci. 3, 1–17 (2021).
Townend, J. Effects of elevated carbon dioxide and drought on the growth and physiology of clonal Sitka spruce plants (Picea sitchensis (Bong) Carr.). Tree Physiol. 13, 389–399 (1993).
pubmed: 14969994
Jiang, M. et al. The fate of carbon in a mature forest under carbon dioxide enrichment. Nature 580, 227–231 (2020).
pubmed: 32269351
Smagin, A. V. Thermodynamic concept of water retention and physical quality of the soil. Agronomy 11, 1686 (2021).
Olajuyigbe, S., Tobin, B., Saunders, M. & Nieuwenhuis, M. Forest thinning and soil respiration in a Sitka spruce forest in Ireland. Agric. For. Meteorol. 157, 86–95 (2012).
Saunders, M. et al. Thinning effects on the net ecosystem carbon exchange of as Sitka spruce forest are temperature-dependent. Agric. For. Meteorol. 157, 1–10 (2012).
Pugh, T. A. M. et al. Understanding the uncertainty in global forest carbon turnover. Biogeosciences 17, 3961–3989 (2020).
Seiler, C. et al. Are terrestrial biosphere models fit for simulating the global land carbon sink?. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst. 14, e2021MS002946 (2022).
Argles, A. Jules-red simulation outputs and evaluation at Harwood forest, UK (version 2). Zenodo https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8155227 (2023).

Auteurs

Arthur P K Argles (APK)

Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, Devon, UK. arthur.argles@metoffice.gov.uk.
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QE, UK. arthur.argles@metoffice.gov.uk.

Eddy Robertson (E)

Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, Devon, UK.

Anna B Harper (AB)

Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QE, UK.

James I L Morison (JIL)

Forest Research, Alice Holt Lodge, Farnham, GU10 4LH, Surrey, UK.

Georgios Xenakis (G)

Forest Research, NRS, Roslin, EH25 9SY, Midlothian, UK.

Astley Hastings (A)

School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, King's College, Aberdeen, AB24 3FX, UK.

Jon Mccalmont (J)

School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, King's College, Aberdeen, AB24 3FX, UK.
Department of Biosciences, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, University of Exeter, Streatham Campus, Rennes Drive, Exeter, EX4 4RJ, UK.

Jon R Moore (JR)

Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QE, UK.

Ian J Bateman (IJ)

Land, Environment, Economics and Policy Institute (LEEP), Department of Economics, University of Exeter Business School, Exeter, UK.

Kate Gannon (K)

Land, Environment, Economics and Policy Institute (LEEP), Department of Economics, University of Exeter Business School, Exeter, UK.

Richard A Betts (RA)

Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, Devon, UK.
University of Exeter Global Systems Institute, Exeter, EX4 4QE, UK.

Stephen Bathgate (S)

Forest Research, NRS, Roslin, EH25 9SY, Midlothian, UK.

Justin Thomas (J)

School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, King's College, Aberdeen, AB24 3FX, UK.

Matthew Heard (M)

The National Trust, Heelis, Kemble Drive, Swindon, SN2 2NA, UK.

Peter M Cox (PM)

Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QE, UK.

Articles similaires

Photosynthesis Ribulose-Bisphosphate Carboxylase Carbon Dioxide Molecular Dynamics Simulation Cyanobacteria
Semiconductors Photosynthesis Polymers Carbon Dioxide Bacteria
India Carbon Sequestration Environmental Monitoring Carbon Biomass
1.00
Iran Environmental Monitoring Seasons Ecosystem Forests

Classifications MeSH