A model-based strategy for the COVID-19 vaccine roll-out in the Philippines.
Aged-structured model
COVID-19
Mathematical modeling
Optimal control theory
Vaccination
Journal
Journal of theoretical biology
ISSN: 1095-8541
Titre abrégé: J Theor Biol
Pays: England
ID NLM: 0376342
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
21 09 2023
21 09 2023
Historique:
received:
05
12
2022
revised:
01
08
2023
accepted:
03
08
2023
medline:
13
9
2023
pubmed:
20
8
2023
entrez:
19
8
2023
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
COVID-19 has affected millions of people worldwide, causing illness and death, and disrupting daily life while imposing a significant social and economic burden. Vaccination is an important control measure that significantly reduces mortality if properly and efficiently distributed. In this work, an age-structured model of COVID-19 transmission, incorporating an unreported infectious compartment, is developed. Three age groups are considered: young (0-19 years), adult (20-64 years), and elderly (65+ years). The transmission rate and reporting rate are determined for each group by utilizing the number of COVID-19 cases in the National Capital Region in the Philippines. Optimal control theory is employed to identify the best vaccine allocation to different age groups. Further, three different vaccination periods are considered to reflect phases of vaccination priority groups: the first, second, and third account for the inoculation of the elderly, adult and elderly, and all three age groups, respectively. This study could guide in making informed decisions in mitigating a population-structured disease transmission under limited resources.
Identifiants
pubmed: 37597691
pii: S0022-5193(23)00193-5
doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2023.111596
pii:
doi:
Substances chimiques
COVID-19 Vaccines
0
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
111596Informations de copyright
Copyright © 2023 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
Declaration of competing interest The authors of this paper affirm that they have made significant contributions to all aspects of the research presented and the preparation of the article. They collectively approve the final version of the article and confirm that there are no conflicts of interest among the authors.