Modelling population-level and targeted interventions of weight loss on chronic disease prevention in the Canadian population.

Chronic disease Interventions Population health Prevention Public health Risk prediction

Journal

Preventive medicine
ISSN: 1096-0260
Titre abrégé: Prev Med
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 0322116

Informations de publication

Date de publication:
Oct 2023
Historique:
received: 08 03 2023
revised: 14 08 2023
accepted: 16 08 2023
pubmed: 20 8 2023
medline: 20 8 2023
entrez: 19 8 2023
Statut: ppublish

Résumé

Obesity is a known risk factor for major chronic diseases. Prevention of chronic disease is a top global priority. The study aimed to model scenarios of population-level and targeted weight loss interventions on 10-year projected risk of chronic disease in Canada using a population-level risk prediction algorithm. The validated Chronic Disease Population Risk Tool (CDPoRT) forecasts 10-year risk of chronic disease in the adult population. We applied CDPoRT to the 2013/14 Canadian Community Health Survey to generate prospective chronic disease estimates for adults 20 years and older in Canada (n = 83,220). CDPoRT was used to model the following scenarios: British Columbia's (BC) and Quebec's (QC) provincial population-level weight reduction targets, a population-level intervention that could achieve weight loss, targeted weight loss interventions for overweight and obese groups, and the combination of a population-level and targeted weight loss intervention. We estimated chronic disease risk reductions and number of cases prevented in each scenario compared with the baseline. At baseline, we predicted an 18.4% risk and 4,151,929 new cases of chronic disease in Canada over the 10-year period. Provincial weight loss targets applied to the Canadian population estimated chronic disease reductions of 0.6% (BC) and 0.1% (QC). The population-level intervention estimated a greater reduction in risk (0.2%), compared to the targeted interventions (0.1%). The combined approach estimated a 0.3% reduction in chronic disease risk. Our modelling predicted that population-level approaches that achieve weight loss in combination with targeted weight loss interventions can substantially decrease the chronic disease burden in Canada.

Identifiants

DOI: 10.1016/j.ypmed.2023.107673 PMID: 37597756
pubmed: 37597756
pii: S0091-7435(23)00253-0
doi: 10.1016/j.ypmed.2023.107673
pii:
doi:

Types de publication

Journal Article

Langues

eng

Sous-ensembles de citation

IM

Pagination

107673

Informations de copyright

Copyright © 2023. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts

Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest.

Auteurs

Emilie Pianarosa (E)

Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, 155 College Street, Toronto, ON M5T 3M7, Canada.

Meghan O'Neill (M)

Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, 155 College Street, Toronto, ON M5T 3M7, Canada.

Kathy Kornas (K)

Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, 155 College Street, Toronto, ON M5T 3M7, Canada.

Lori M Diemert (LM)

Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, 155 College Street, Toronto, ON M5T 3M7, Canada.

Christopher Tait (C)

Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, 155 College Street, Toronto, ON M5T 3M7, Canada.

Laura C Rosella (LC)

Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, 155 College Street, Toronto, ON M5T 3M7, Canada; ICES, 2075 Bayview Avenue, Toronto, ON M4N 3M5, Canada; Institute for Better Health, Trillium Health Partners, 100 Queensway West, Mississauga, ON L5B 1B8, Canada; Laboratory Medicine and Pathobiology, Temerty Faculty of Medicine, Simcoe Hall, 1 King's College Cir, Toronto, ON M5S 1A8, Canada. Electronic address: laura.rosella@utoronto.ca.

Classifications MeSH