Rapid increase in the risk of heat-related mortality.
Journal
Nature communications
ISSN: 2041-1723
Titre abrégé: Nat Commun
Pays: England
ID NLM: 101528555
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
24 08 2023
24 08 2023
Historique:
received:
07
11
2022
accepted:
02
08
2023
medline:
28
8
2023
pubmed:
25
8
2023
entrez:
24
8
2023
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Heat-related mortality has been identified as one of the key climate extremes posing a risk to human health. Current research focuses largely on how heat mortality increases with mean global temperature rise, but it is unclear how much climate change will increase the frequency and severity of extreme summer seasons with high impact on human health. In this probabilistic analysis, we combined empirical heat-mortality relationships for 748 locations from 47 countries with climate model large ensemble data to identify probable past and future highly impactful summer seasons. Across most locations, heat mortality counts of a 1-in-100 year season in the climate of 2000 would be expected once every ten to twenty years in the climate of 2020. These return periods are projected to further shorten under warming levels of 1.5 °C and 2 °C, where heat-mortality extremes of the past climate will eventually become commonplace if no adaptation occurs. Our findings highlight the urgent need for strong mitigation and adaptation to reduce impacts on human lives.
Identifiants
pubmed: 37620329
doi: 10.1038/s41467-023-40599-x
pii: 10.1038/s41467-023-40599-x
pmc: PMC10449849
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
4894Informations de copyright
© 2023. Springer Nature Limited.
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