Low serum progesterone on day of transfer adversely impacts ongoing pregnancy rates in hormonally prepared single blastocyst frozen embryo transfer cycles.

To evaluate if serum progesterone (P) levels on the day of transfer influence ongoing pregnancy rate (OPR) in hormonally prepared single blastocyst frozen embryo transfer (FET) cycles? Single center prospective cohort study conducted between June 2021 and August 2022 analyzed 217 single good quality blastocyst FET cycles hormonally prepared with oral estradiol valerate and micronized vaginal progesterone 400 mg twice daily. Mean serum P on the day of embryo transfer (ET) was 9.76 ± 5.19 ng/ml. Receiver operator curve (ROC) showed a significant predictive value of serum P levels on the day of ET for OPR, with an area under curve (AUC) (95 %CI) = 0.58 (0.49-0.66). Optimal serum P threshold for OPR was 7.7 ng/ml (Sensitivity 76.8%, Specificity 43.7%). 35.9% patients had serum P below this threshold. BMI was significantly higher (26.8 ± 3.7 vs 25.6 ± 4.3; p = 0.048) in patients with serum P < 7.7 ng/ml vs ≥ 7.7 ng/ml. OPR was significantly lower (24.4% vs 45.3%; p = 0.002) and clinical miscarriage rates significantly higher (37.9% vs 19.2%; p = 0.042) if serum P < 7.72 ng/ml vs ≥ 7.7 ng/ml. This study found that serum P level on the day of transfer in hormonally prepared FET cycles was a significant predictor of OPR.

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Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.