Abrupt permafrost thaw drives spatially heterogeneous soil moisture and carbon dioxide fluxes in upland tundra.
Arctic
abrupt thaw
carbon dioxide
carbon flux
permafrost
soil moisture
thermokarst
Journal
Global change biology
ISSN: 1365-2486
Titre abrégé: Glob Chang Biol
Pays: England
ID NLM: 9888746
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Nov 2023
Nov 2023
Historique:
revised:
16
08
2023
received:
14
06
2023
accepted:
27
08
2023
pubmed:
11
9
2023
medline:
11
9
2023
entrez:
11
9
2023
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Permafrost thaw causes the seasonally thawed active layer to deepen, causing the Arctic to shift toward carbon release as soil organic matter becomes susceptible to decomposition. Ground subsidence initiated by ice loss can cause these soils to collapse abruptly, rapidly shifting soil moisture as microtopography changes and also accelerating carbon and nutrient mobilization. The uncertainty of soil moisture trajectories during thaw makes it difficult to predict the role of abrupt thaw in suppressing or exacerbating carbon losses. In this study, we investigated the role of shifting soil moisture conditions on carbon dioxide fluxes during a 13-year permafrost warming experiment that exhibited abrupt thaw. Warming deepened the active layer differentially across treatments, leading to variable rates of subsidence and formation of thermokarst depressions. In turn, differential subsidence caused a gradient of moisture conditions, with some plots becoming consistently inundated with water within thermokarst depressions and others exhibiting generally dry, but more variable soil moisture conditions outside of thermokarst depressions. Experimentally induced permafrost thaw initially drove increasing rates of growing season gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (R
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
6286-6302Subventions
Organisme : Biological and Environmental Research, Terrestrial Ecosystem Science Program
ID : DE-SC0006982
Organisme : Biological and Environmental Research, Terrestrial Ecosystem Science Program
ID : DE-SC0014085
Organisme : Biological and Environmental Research, Terrestrial Ecosystem Science Program
ID : DE-SC0020227
Organisme : National Science Foundation Bonanza Creek LTER Program
ID : 1026415
Organisme : National Science Foundation CAREER
ID : 0747195
Informations de copyright
© 2023 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Références
Abbott, B. W., & Jones, J. B. (2015). Permafrost collapse alters soil carbon stocks, respiration, CH4, and N2O in upland tundra. Global Change Biology, 21(12), 4570-4587. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13069
Andresen, C. G., Lawrence, D. M., Wilson, C. J., McGuire, A. D., Koven, C., Schaefer, K., Jafarov, E., Peng, S., Chen, X., Gouttevin, I., Burke, E., Chadburn, S., Ji, D., Chen, G., Hayes, D., & Zhang, W. (2020). Soil moisture and hydrology projections of the permafrost region-A model intercomparison. The Cryosphere, 14(2), 445-459. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-445-2020
Baldocchi, D., Falge, E., Gu, L., Olson, R., Hollinger, D., Running, S., Anthoni, P., Bernhofer, C., Davis, K., Evans, R., Fuentes, J., Goldstein, A., Katul, G., Law, B., Lee, X., Malhi, Y., Meyers, T., Munger, W., Oechel, W., … Wofsy, S. (2001). FLUXNET: A new tool to study the temporal and spatial variability of ecosystem-scale carbon dioxide, water vapor, and energy flux densities. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 82(11), 2415-2434. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(2001)082<2415:FANTTS>2.3.CO;2
Biskaborn, B. K., Smith, S. L., Noetzli, J., Matthes, H., Vieira, G., Streletskiy, D. A., Schoeneich, P., Romanovsky, V. E., Lewkowicz, A. G., Abramov, A., Allard, M., Boike, J., Cable, W. L., Christiansen, H. H., Delaloye, R., Diekmann, B., Drozdov, D., Etzelmüller, B., Grosse, G., … Lantuit, H. (2019). Permafrost is warming at a global scale. Nature Communications, 10(1), 264. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-08240-4
Cassidy, A. E., Christen, A., & Henry, G. H. R. (2016). The effect of a permafrost disturbance on growing-season carbon-dioxide fluxes in a high Arctic tundra ecosystem. Biogeosciences, 13(8), 2291-2303. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-2291-2016
Celis, G., Mauritz, M., Bracho, R., Salmon, V. G., Webb, E. E., Hutchings, J., Natali, S. M., Schädel, C., Crummer, K. G., & Schuur, E. A. G. (2017). Tundra is a consistent source of CO2 at a site with progressive permafrost thaw during 6 years of chamber and eddy covariance measurements: Tundra CO2 fluxes. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 122(6), 1471-1485. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JG003671
Collins, C. G., Elmendorf, S. C., Hollister, R. D., Henry, G. H. R., Clark, K., Bjorkman, A. D., Myers-Smith, I. H., Prevéy, J. S., Ashton, I. W., Assmann, J. J., Alatalo, J. M., Carbognani, M., Chisholm, C., Cooper, E. J., Forrester, C., Jónsdóttir, I. S., Klanderud, K., Kopp, C. W., Livensperger, C., … Suding, K. N. (2021). Experimental warming differentially affects vegetative and reproductive phenology of tundra plants. Nature Communications, 12(1), 3442. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-23841-2
Connon, R., Devoie, É., Hayashi, M., Veness, T., & Quinton, W. (2018). The influence of shallow taliks on permafrost thaw and active layer dynamics in subarctic Canada. Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface, 123(2), 281-297. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JF004469
Deane-Coe, K. K., Mauritz, M., Celis, G., Salmon, V., Crummer, K. G., Natali, S. M., & Schuur, E. A. G. (2015). Experimental warming alters productivity and isotopic signatures of tundra mosses. Ecosystems, 18(6), 1070-1082. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-015-9884-7
Dowle, M., & Srinivasan, A. (2021). data.table: Extension of ‘data.frame’ (1.14.0) [R]. https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=data.table
Ekici, A., Lee, H., Lawrence, D. M., Swenson, S. C., & Prigent, C. (2019). Ground subsidence effects on simulating dynamic high-latitude surface inundation under permafrost thaw using CLM5. Geoscientific Model Development, 12(12), 5291-5300. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5291-2019
Elzhov, T. V., Mullen, K. M., Spiess, A.-N., & Bolker, B. M. (2016). minpack.lm: R interface to the Levenberg-Marquardt nonlinear least-squares algorithm found in MINPACK, plus support for bounds (1.2-1) [R]. https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=minpack.lm
Emmerton, C. A., St. Louis, V. L., Humphreys, E. R., Gamon, J. A., Barker, J. D., & Pastorello, G. Z. (2016). Net ecosystem exchange of CO2 with rapidly changing high Arctic landscapes. Global Change Biology, 22(3), 1185-1200. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13064
Euskirchen, E. S., Edgar, C. W., Syndonia Bret-Harte, M., Kade, A., Zimov, N., & Zimov, S. (2017). Interannual and seasonal patterns of carbon dioxide, water, and energy fluxes from ecotonal and thermokarst-impacted ecosystems on carbon-rich permafrost soils in northeastern Siberia. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 122(10), 2651-2668. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JG004070
Evans, S. G., Godsey, S. E., Rushlow, C. R., & Voss, C. (2020). Water tracks enhance water flow above permafrost in upland Arctic Alaska hillslopes. Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface, 125(2), 5256. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JF005256
Farquharson, L. M., Romanovsky, V. E., Cable, W. L., Walker, D. A., Kokelj, S. V., & Nicolsky, D. (2019). Climate change drives widespread and rapid thermokarst development in very cold permafrost in the Canadian high Arctic. Geophysical Research Letters, 46(12), 6681-6689. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL082187
Greenwell, B., Boehmke, B., Cunningham, J., & GBM Developers. (2020). gbm: Generalized boosted regression models (2.1.8) [R]. https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=gbm
Harris, S. A., French, H. M., Hegginbottom, J. A., Johnston, G. H., Ladanyi, B., Sego, D. C., & van Everdingen, R. O. (1988). Glossary of permafrost and related ground-ice terms (Technical Memorandum). National Research Council of Canada. Associate Committee on Geotechnical Research, No. ACGR-TM-142, p. 159. Permafrost Subcommittee. https://doi.org/10.4224/20386561
Heiskanen, L., Tuovinen, J.-P., Räsänen, A., Virtanen, T., Juutinen, S., Lohila, A., Penttilä, T., Linkosalmi, M., Mikola, J., Laurila, T., & Aurela, M. (2021). Carbon dioxide and methane exchange of a patterned subarctic fen during two contrasting growing seasons. Biogeosciences, 18(3), 873-896. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-873-2021
Hewitt, R. E., Taylor, D. L., Genet, H., McGuire, A. D., & Mack, C. (2018). Below-ground plant traits influence tundra plant acquisition of newly thawed permafrost nitrogen. Journal of Ecology, 107, 950-962.
Hicks Pries, C. E., Schuur, E. A. G., & Crummer, K. G. (2013). Thawing permafrost increases old soil and autotrophic respiration in tundra: Partitioning ecosystem respiration using δ13C and ∆14C. Global Change Biology, 19(2), 649-661. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12058
Hiemstra, P. H., Pebesma, E., Twenhöfel, C. J. W., & Heuvelink, G. B. M. (2009). Real-time automatic interpolation of ambient gamma dose rates from the Dutch radioactivity monitoring network. Computers & Geosciences, 35(8), 1711-1721.
Hinkel, K. M., & Hurd, J. K. (2006). Permafrost destabilization and thermokarst following snow fence installation, Barrow, Alaska, U.S.A. Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research, 38(4), 530-539. https://doi.org/10.1657/1523-0430(2006)38[530:PDATFS]2.0.CO;2
Houghton, R. A. (2007). Balancing the global carbon budget. Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 35, 313-347.
Hugelius, G., Strauss, J., Zubrzycki, S., Harden, J. W., Schuur, E. A. G., Ping, C.-L., Schirrmeister, L., Grosse, G., Michaelson, G. J., Koven, C. D., O'Donnell, J. A., Elberling, B., Mishra, U., Camill, P., Yu, Z., Palmtag, J., & Kuhry, P. (2014). Estimated stocks of circumpolar permafrost carbon with quantified uncertainty ranges and identified data gaps. Biogeosciences, 11(23), 6573-6593. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6573-2014
Huxman, T. E., Turnipseed, A. A., Sparks, J. P., Harley, P. C., & Monson, R. K. (2003). Temperature as a control over ecosystem CO2 fluxes in a high-elevation, subalpine forest. Oecologia, 134(4), 537-546. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00442-002-1131-1
IPCC. (2021). Climate change 2021: The physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press.
Jensen, A. E., Lohse, K. A., Crosby, B. T., & Mora, C. I. (2014). Variations in soil carbon dioxide efflux across a thaw slump chronosequence in northwestern Alaska. Environmental Research Letters, 9(2), 025001. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/2/025001
Jorgenson, M. T., Douglas, T. A., Liljedahl, A. K., Roth, J. E., Cater, T. C., Davis, W. A., Frost, G. V., Miller, P. F., & Racine, C. H. (2020). The roles of climate extremes, ecological succession, and hydrology in repeated permafrost aggradation and degradation in fens on the Tanana Flats, Alaska. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 125(12), 5824. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JG005824
Jorgenson, M. T., Harden, J., Kanevskiy, M., O'Donnell, J., Wickland, K., Ewing, S., Manies, K., Zhuang, Q., Shur, Y., Striegl, R., & Koch, J. (2013). Reorganization of vegetation, hydrology and soil carbon after permafrost degradation across heterogeneous boreal landscapes. Environmental Research Letters, 8(3), 035017. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/035017
Jorgenson, M. T., & Osterkamp, T. E. (2005). Response of boreal ecosystems to varying modes of permafrost degradation. Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 35, 2100-2111. https://doi.org/10.1139/X05-153
Jorgenson, M. T., Racine, C. H., Walters, J. C., & Osterkamp, T. E. (2001). Permafrost degradation and ecological changes associated with a warming climate in Central Alaska. Climatic Change, 48, 551-579.
Jorgenson, M. T., Shur, Y. L., & Pullman, E. R. (2006). Abrupt increase in permafrost degradation in Arctic Alaska. Geophysical Research Letters, 33(2), L02503. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL024960
Kanevskiy, M., Shur, Y., Jorgenson, T., Brown, D. R. N., Moskalenko, N., Brown, J., Walker, D. A., Raynolds, M. K., & Buchhorn, M. (2017). Degradation and stabilization of ice wedges: Implications for assessing risk of thermokarst in northern Alaska. Geomorphology, 297, 20-42. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2017.09.001
Kelsey, K. C., Pedersen, S. H., Leffler, A. J., Sexton, J. O., Feng, M., & Welker, J. M. (2021). Winter snow and spring temperature have differential effects on vegetation phenology and productivity across Arctic plant communities. Global Change Biology, 27(8), 1572-1586. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15505
Köchy, M., Hiederer, R., & Freibauer, A. (2015). Global distribution of soil organic carbon-Part 1: Masses and frequency distributions of SOC stocks for the tropics, permafrost regions, wetlands, and the world. Soil, 1(1), 351-365. https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-1-351-2015
Kokelj, S. V., & Jorgenson, M. T. (2013). Advances in thermokarst research: Recent advances in research investigating thermokarst processes. Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, 24(2), 108-119. https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp.1779
Kotani, A., Saito, A., Kononov, A. V., Petrov, R. E., Maximov, T. C., Iijima, Y., & Ohta, T. (2019). Impact of unusually wet permafrost soil on understory vegetation and CO2 exchange in a larch forest in eastern Siberia. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 265, 295-309. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2018.11.025
Kuhn, M. (2021). caret: Classification and regression training (6.0-90) [R]. https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=caret
Lantz, T. C., & Kokelj, S. V. (2008). Increasing rates of retrogressive thaw slump activity in the Mackenzie Delta region, N.W.T., Canada. Geophysical Research Letters, 35(6), L06502. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL032433
Lara, M. J., Genet, H., McGuire, A. D., Euskirchen, E. S., Zhang, Y., Brown, D. R. N., Jorgenson, M. T., Romanovsky, V., Breen, A., & Bolton, W. R. (2016). Thermokarst rates intensify due to climate change and forest fragmentation in an Alaskan boreal forest lowland. Global Change Biology, 22(2), 816-829. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13124
Lawrence, D. M., Koven, C. D., Swenson, S. C., Riley, W. J., & Slater, A. G. (2015). Permafrost thaw and resulting soil moisture changes regulate projected high-latitude CO2 and CH4 emissions. Environmental Research Letters, 10(9), 094011. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094011
Lee, H., Schuur, E. A. G., Vogel, J. G., Lavoie, M., Bhadra, D., & Staudhammer, C. L. (2011). A spatially explicit analysis to extrapolate carbon fluxes in upland tundra where permafrost is thawing. Global Change Biology, 17(3), 1379-1393. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02287.x
Lee, H., Swenson, S. C., Slater, A. G., & Lawrence, D. M. (2014). Effects of excess ground ice on projections of permafrost in a warming climate. Environmental Research Letters, 9(12), 124006. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/12/124006
Luo, D., Wu, Q., Jin, H., Marchenko, S. S., Lü, L., & Gao, S. (2016). Recent changes in the active layer thickness across the northern hemisphere. Environmental Earth Sciences, 75(7), 555. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-015-5229-2
Mauritz, M., Bracho, R., Celis, G., Hutchings, J., Natali, S. M., Pegoraro, E., Salmon, V. G., Schädel, C., Webb, E. E., & Schuur, E. A. G. (2017). Nonlinear CO2 flux response to 7 years of experimentally induced permafrost thaw. Global Change Biology, 23(9), 3646-3666. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13661
Meredith, M., SommerKorn, M., Cassota, S., Derksen, C., Ekaykin, A., Hallowed, A., Kofinas, G., Mackintosh, A., Melbourne-Thomas, J., Muelbert, M. M. C., Ottersen, G., Pritchard, H., Schuur, E. A. G., Boyd, P., & Hobbs, W. (2019). Polar regions. In H.-O. Pörtner, D. C. Roberts, V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, M. Tignor, E. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Nicolai, A. Okem, J. Petzold, B. Rama, & N. M. Weyer (Eds.), IPCC special report on the ocean and cryosphere in a changing climate (pp. 203-320). Cambridge University Press.
Miner, K. R., Turetsky, M. R., Malina, E., Bartsch, A., Tamminen, J., McGuire, A. D., Fix, A., Sweeney, C., Elder, C. D., & Miller, C. E. (2022). Permafrost carbon emissions in a changing Arctic. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 3(1), 55-67. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-021-00230-3
Mishra, U., Hugelius, G., Shelef, E., Yang, Y., Strauss, J., Lupachev, A., Harden, J. W., Jastrow, J. D., Ping, C.-L., Riley, W. J., Schuur, E. A. G., Matamala, R., Siewert, M., Nave, L. E., Koven, C. D., Fuchs, M., Palmtag, J., Kuhry, P., Treat, C. C., … Orr, A. (2021). Spatial heterogeneity and environmental predictors of permafrost region soil organic carbon stocks. Science Advances, 7(9), eaaz5236. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aaz5236
Natali, S. M., Holdren, J. P., Rogers, B. M., Treharne, R., Duffy, P. B., Pomerance, R., & MacDonald, E. (2021). Permafrost carbon feedbacks threaten global climate goals. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 118(21), e2100163118. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2100163118
Natali, S. M., Schuur, E. A. G., Mauritz, M., Schade, J. D., Celis, G., Crummer, K. G., Johnston, C., Krapek, J., Pegoraro, E., Salmon, V. G., & Webb, E. E. (2015). Permafrost thaw and soil moisture driving CO2 and CH4 release from upland tundra. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 120(3), 525-537. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JG002872
Natali, S. M., Schuur, E. A. G., Trucco, C., Hicks Pries, C. E., Crummer, K. G., & Baron Lopez, A. F. (2011). Effects of experimental warming of air, soil and permafrost on carbon balance in Alaskan tundra. Global Change Biology, 17(3), 1394-1407. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02303.x
Natali, S. M., Watts, J. D., Rogers, B. M., Potter, S., Ludwig, S. M., Selbmann, A.-K., Sullivan, P. F., Abbott, B. W., Arndt, K. A., Birch, L., Björkman, M. P., Bloom, A. A., Celis, G., Christensen, T. R., Christiansen, C. T., Commane, R., Cooper, E. J., Crill, P., Czimczik, C., … Zona, D. (2019). Large loss of CO2 in winter observed across the northern permafrost region. Nature Climate Change, 9(11), 852-857. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0592-8
NEON (National Ecological Observatory Network). (2022). Elevation-LiDAR, RELEASE-2020. (DP3.30024.001). https://doi.org/10.48443/917d-g459
Nitze, I., Cooley, S. W., Duguay, C. R., Jones, B. M., & Grosse, G. (2020). The catastrophic thermokarst lake drainage events of 2018 in northwestern Alaska: Fast-forward into the future. The Cryosphere, 14(12), 4279-4297. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4279-2020
Niu, S., Luo, Y., Fei, S., Montagnani, L., Bohrer, G., Janssens, I. A., Gielen, B., Rambal, S., Moors, E., & Matteucci, G. (2011). Seasonal hysteresis of net ecosystem exchange in response to temperature change: Patterns and causes. Global Change Biology, 17(10), 3102-3114. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02459.x
Nyland, K. E., Shiklomanov, N. I., Streletskiy, D. A., Nelson, F. E., Klene, A. E., & Kholodov, A. L. (2021). Long-term Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) program observations in Northern Alaskan tundra. Polar Geography, 44, 167-185. https://doi.org/10.1080/1088937X.2021.1988000
Olefeldt, D., Goswami, S., Grosse, G., Hayes, D., Hugelius, G., Kuhry, P., McGuire, A. D., Romanovsky, V. E., Sannel, A. B. K., Schuur, E. A. G., & Turetsky, M. R. (2016). Circumpolar distribution and carbon storage of thermokarst landscapes. Nature Communications, 7(1), 13043. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms13043
Osterkamp, T. E., Jorgenson, M. T., Schuur, E. A. G., Shur, Y. L., Kanevskiy, M. Z., Vogel, J. G., & Tumskoy, V. E. (2009). Physical and ecological changes associated with warming permafrost and thermokarst in Interior Alaska. Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, 20(3), 235-256. https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp.656
Ping, C. L., Jastrow, J. D., Jorgenson, M. T., Michaelson, G. J., & Shur, Y. L. (2015). Permafrost soils and carbon cycling. Soil, 1(1), 147-171. https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-1-147-2015
R Core Team. (2021). R: A language and environment for statistical computing (4.1.0) [Computer software]. R Foundation for Statistical Computing. https://www.R-project.org/
Rantanen, M., Karpechko, A. Y., Lipponen, A., Nordling, K., Hyvärinen, O., Ruosteenoja, K., Vihma, T., & Laaksonen, A. (2022). The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979. Communications Earth & Environment, 3(1), 168. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00498-3
Rodenhizer, H., Belshe, F., Celis, G., Ledman, J., Mauritz, M., Goetz, S., Sankey, T., & Schuur, E. A. G. (2022). Abrupt permafrost thaw accelerates carbon dioxide and methane release at a tussock tundra site. Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research, 54(1), 443-464. https://doi.org/10.1080/15230430.2022.2118639
Rodenhizer, H., Ledman, J., Mauritz, M., Natali, S. M., Pegoraro, E., Plaza, C., Romano, E., Schädel, C., Taylor, M., & Schuur, E. (2020). Carbon thaw rate doubles when accounting for subsidence in a permafrost warming experiment. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 125(6), 5528. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JG005528
Rodenhizer, H., Mauritz, M., Taylor, M., Ledman, J., Natali, S., Schuur, E., & Bonanza Creek, L. T. E. R. (2023). Eight mile lake research watershed, Carbon in Permafrost Experimental Heating Research (CiPEHR): Compiled half-hourly dataset, 2009-2021 ver 2. Environmental Data Initiative. https://doi.org/10.6073/pasta/b418701259e674a8a89c8a2ba4ff6d6f
Romanovsky, V. E., Smith, S. L., & Christiansen, H. H. (2010). Permafrost thermal state in the polar Northern Hemisphere during the international polar year 2007-2009: A synthesis. Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, 21(2), 106-116. https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp.689
Salmon, V. G., Soucy, P., Mauritz, M., Celis, G., Natali, S. M., Mack, M. C., & Schuur, E. A. G. (2016). Nitrogen availability increases in a tundra ecosystem during five years of experimental permafrost thaw. Global Change Biology, 22(5), 1927-1941. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13204
Schädel, C., Bader, M. K.-F., Schuur, E. A. G., Biasi, C., Bracho, R., Čapek, P., De Baets, S., Diáková, K., Ernakovich, J., Estop-Aragones, C., Graham, D. E., Hartley, I. P., Iversen, C. M., Kane, E., Knoblauch, C., Lupascu, M., Martikainen, P. J., Natali, S. M., Norby, R. J., … Wickland, K. P. (2016). Potential carbon emissions dominated by carbon dioxide from thawed permafrost soils. Nature Climate Change, 6(10), 950-953. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3054
Schädel, C., Koven, C. D., Lawrence, D. M., Celis, G., Garnello, A. J., Hutchings, J., Mauritz, M., Natali, S. M., Pegoraro, E., Rodenhizer, H., Salmon, V. G., Taylor, M. A., Webb, E. E., Wieder, W. R., & Schuur, E. A. (2018). Divergent patterns of experimental and model-derived permafrost ecosystem carbon dynamics in response to Arctic warming. Environmental Research Letters, 13(10), 105002. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aae0ff
Schuur, E. A. G., & Abbott, B. (2011). High risk of permafrost thaw. Nature, 480(7375), 32-33. https://doi.org/10.1038/480032a
Schuur, E. A. G., Abbott, B. W., Commane, R., Ernakovich, J., Euskirchen, E., Hugelius, G., Grosse, G., Jones, M., Koven, C., Leshyk, V., Lawrence, D., Loranty, M. M., Mauritz, M., Olefeldt, D., Natali, S., Rodenhizer, H., Salmon, V., Schädel, C., Strauss, J., … Turetsky, M. (2022). Permafrost and climate change: Carbon cycle feedbacks from the warming Arctic. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 33, 343-371.
Schuur, E. A. G., Bockheim, J., Canadell, J. G., Euskirchen, E., Field, C. B., Goryachkin, S. V., Hagemann, S., Kuhry, P., Lafleur, P. M., Lee, H., Mazhitova, G., Nelson, F. E., Rinke, A., Romanovsky, V. E., Shiklomanov, N., Tarnocai, C., Venevsky, S., Vogel, J. G., & Zimov, S. A. (2008). Vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change: Implications for the global carbon cycle. BioScience, 58(8), 701-714. https://doi.org/10.1641/B580807
Schuur, E. A. G., Bracho, R., Celis, G., Belshe, E. F., Ebert, C., Ledman, J., Mauritz, M., Pegoraro, E. F., Plaza, C., Rodenhizer, H., Romanovsky, V., Schädel, C., Schirokauer, D., Taylor, M., Vogel, J. G., & Webb, E. E. (2021). Tundra underlain by thawing permafrost persistently emits carbon to the atmosphere over 15 years of measurements. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 126(6), 6044. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JG006044
Schuur, E. A. G., Crummer, K. G., Vogel, J. G., & Mack, M. C. (2007). Plant species composition and productivity following permafrost thaw and thermokarst in Alaskan tundra. Ecosystems, 10(2), 280-292. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-007-9024-0
Schuur, E. A. G., & Mack, M. C. (2018). Ecological response to permafrost thaw and consequences for local and global ecosystem services. Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics, 49(1), 279-301. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-121415-032349
Schuur, E. A. G., McGuire, A. D., Romanovsky, V. E., Schädel, C., & Mack, M. C. (2018). Arctic and boreal carbon. In N. Cavallaro, G. Shrestha, R. Birdsey, M. A. Mayes, R. G. Najjar, S. C. Reed, P. Romero-Lankao, & Z. Zhu (Eds.), Second State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR2): A sustained assessment report (pp. 428-468). U.S. Global Change Research Program. https://doi.org/10.7930/SOCCR2.2018.Ch11
Schuur, E. A. G., Vogel, J. G., Crummer, K. G., Lee, H., Sickman, J. O., & Osterkamp, T. E. (2009). The effect of permafrost thaw on old carbon release and net carbon exchange from tundra. Nature, 459(7246), 556-559. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature08031
Subin, Z. M., Koven, C. D., Riley, W. J., Torn, M. S., Lawrence, D. M., & Swenson, S. C. (2013). Effects of soil moisture on the responses of soil temperatures to climate change in cold regions. Journal of Climate, 26, 21.
Swanson, D. K. (2021). Permafrost thaw-related slope failures in Alaska's Arctic National Parks, c. 1980-2019. Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, 32, 392-406. 10.1002/ppp.2098.
Taylor, M., Celis, G., Ledman, J., Mauritz, M., Natali, S. M., Pegoraro, E., Schädel, C., & Schuur, E. A. G. (2021). Experimental soil warming and permafrost thaw increase CH4 emissions in an upland tundra ecosystem. JGR Biogeosciences, 126(11), e2021JG006376.
Teufel, B., & Sushama, L. (2019). Abrupt changes across the Arctic permafrost region endanger northern development. Nature Climate Change, 9(11), 858-862. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0614-6
Turetsky, M. R., Abbott, B. W., Jones, M. C., Anthony, K. W., Olefeldt, D., Schuur, E. A. G., Grosse, G., Kuhry, P., Hugelius, G., Koven, C., Lawrence, D. M., Gibson, C., Sannel, A. B. K., & McGuire, A. D. (2020). Carbon release through abrupt permafrost thaw. Nature Geoscience, 13(2), 138-143. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0526-0
Varner, R. K., Crill, P. M., Frolking, S., McCalley, C. K., Burke, S. A., Chanton, J. P., Holmes, M. E., Isogenie Project Coordinators, Saleska, S., & Palace, M. W. (2022). Permafrost thaw driven changes in hydrology and vegetation cover increase trace gas emissions and climate forcing in Stordalen Mire from 1970 to 2014. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 380(2215), 20210022. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2021.0022
Veremeeva, A., Nitze, I., Günther, F., Grosse, G., & Rivkina, E. (2021). Geomorphological and climatic drivers of thermokarst lake area increase trend (1999-2018) in the Kolyma Lowland Yedoma Region, North-Eastern Siberia. Remote Sensing, 13(2), 178. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13020178
Vogel, J., Schuur, E. A. G., Trucco, C., & Lee, H. (2009). Response of CO2 exchange in a tussock tundra ecosystem to permafrost thaw and thermokarst development. Journal of Geophysical Research, 114(G4), G04018. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JG000901
Walvoord, M. A., & Kurylyk, B. L. (2016). Hydrologic impacts of thawing permafrost-A review. Vadose Zone Journal, 15(6), 1-20. https://doi.org/10.2136/vzj2016.01.0010
Ward Jones, M. K., Pollard, W. H., & Jones, B. M. (2019). Rapid initialization of retrogressive thaw slumps in the Canadian high Arctic and their response to climate and terrain factors. Environmental Research Letters, 14(5), 055006. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab12fd
Webb, E. E., Schuur, E. A. G., Natali, S. M., Oken, K. L., Bracho, R., Krapek, J. P., Risk, D., & Nickerson, N. R. (2016). Increased wintertime CO2 loss as a result of sustained tundra warming. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 121(2), 249-265. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JG002795
Wickham, H., Averick, M., Bryan, J., Chang, W., McGowan, L., François, R., Grolemund, G., Hayes, A., Henry, L., Hester, J., Kuhn, M., Pedersen, T., Miller, E., Bache, S., Müller, K., Ooms, J., Robinson, D., Seidel, D., Spinu, V., … Yutani, H. (2019). Welcome to the Tidyverse. Journal of Open Source Software, 4(43), 1686 10.21105/joss.01686.
Zona, D., Lafleur, P. M., Hufkens, K., Gioli, B., Bailey, B., Burba, G., Euskirchen, E. S., Watts, J. D., Arndt, K. A., Farina, M., Kimball, J. S., Heimann, M., Göckede, M., Pallandt, M., Christensen, T. R., Mastepanov, M., López-Blanco, E., Dolman, A. J., Commane, R., … Oechel, W. C. (2023). Pan-Arctic soil moisture control on tundra carbon sequestration and plant productivity. Global Change Biology, 29(5), 1267-1281. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16487