Trend analysis of noncommunicable diseases and their risk factors in Afghanistan.
Afghanistan
control and prevention
crises
noncommunicable diseases
risk factors
targets
trend analysis
Journal
Chronic diseases and translational medicine
ISSN: 2589-0514
Titre abrégé: Chronic Dis Transl Med
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 101679934
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Sep 2023
Sep 2023
Historique:
received:
23
01
2023
revised:
14
02
2023
accepted:
17
02
2023
medline:
15
9
2023
pubmed:
15
9
2023
entrez:
15
9
2023
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Afghanistan is suffering from 40-year chronic conflicts, displacement, and demolition of its infrastructure. Afghanistan mortality survey 2010 shows nearly 46% of all deaths in the country were attributed to noncommunicable diseases (NCDs). In this study, we aimed to understand the differences in mortality and premature death due to NCDs by sex and the trend for the next 8 years. We applied trend analysis using the secondary data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Global Burden of Diseases 2019. The information on NCD mortality, NCD deaths attributed to its risk factors, NCD percent of total years lived with disability (YLDs) attribution to each risk factor extracted from this database from 2008 to 2019. We investigated the trend from 2008 to 2019 for the mentioned factors and then forecast their trends until 2030. Our study shows that Afghanistan has had an increasing death number due to NCDs from 2008 to 2019 (50% for both sexes) and this will reach nearly 54% by 2030. Currently, half of NCDs deaths are premature in Afghanistan. The mortality rate and prevalence of risk factors are higher among women. More than 70% of YLDs will be due to NCDs in Afghanistan till 2030. Five risk factors including high systolic blood pressure (28.3%), high body mass index (23.4%), high blood glucose (20.6%), high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (16.3%), and smoking (12.3%) will have the highest contribution to NCDs death in 2030, respectively. In general, our study indicates that without any specific intervention to address NCDs in Afghanistan, not only the Sustainable Development Goal target for NCDs will not be met, but an increase in almost all risk factors prevalence, as well as NCD mortality, will be seen in Afghanistan.
Sections du résumé
Background
UNASSIGNED
Afghanistan is suffering from 40-year chronic conflicts, displacement, and demolition of its infrastructure. Afghanistan mortality survey 2010 shows nearly 46% of all deaths in the country were attributed to noncommunicable diseases (NCDs). In this study, we aimed to understand the differences in mortality and premature death due to NCDs by sex and the trend for the next 8 years.
Methods
UNASSIGNED
We applied trend analysis using the secondary data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Global Burden of Diseases 2019. The information on NCD mortality, NCD deaths attributed to its risk factors, NCD percent of total years lived with disability (YLDs) attribution to each risk factor extracted from this database from 2008 to 2019. We investigated the trend from 2008 to 2019 for the mentioned factors and then forecast their trends until 2030.
Results
UNASSIGNED
Our study shows that Afghanistan has had an increasing death number due to NCDs from 2008 to 2019 (50% for both sexes) and this will reach nearly 54% by 2030. Currently, half of NCDs deaths are premature in Afghanistan. The mortality rate and prevalence of risk factors are higher among women. More than 70% of YLDs will be due to NCDs in Afghanistan till 2030. Five risk factors including high systolic blood pressure (28.3%), high body mass index (23.4%), high blood glucose (20.6%), high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (16.3%), and smoking (12.3%) will have the highest contribution to NCDs death in 2030, respectively.
Conclusions
UNASSIGNED
In general, our study indicates that without any specific intervention to address NCDs in Afghanistan, not only the Sustainable Development Goal target for NCDs will not be met, but an increase in almost all risk factors prevalence, as well as NCD mortality, will be seen in Afghanistan.
Identifiants
pubmed: 37711869
doi: 10.1002/cdt3.62
pii: CDT362
pmc: PMC10497825
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Pagination
210-221Subventions
Organisme : World Health Organization
ID : 001
Pays : International
Informations de copyright
© 2023 The Authors. Chronic Diseases and Translational Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Chinese Medical Association.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
The authors declare no conflict of interest.
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