Can we move beyond vaccine apartheid? Examining the determinants of the COVID-19 vaccine gap.

While global health leaders call disparities in access to COVID-19 vaccines an 'apartheid,' this gap is not the first such disparity. The recurrence of these gaps in low and middle-income countries and especially in Africa, raises questions about their determinants and about the persistent failures of global health institutions to remediate them. We interrogate these determinants and questions by examining: (1) the distribution of COVID-19 vaccines; (2) primary determinants of vaccine access including availability and affordability; (3) factors affecting availability (hoarding, COVAX, and manufacturing capacity); and (4) factors affecting affordability (pricing, intellectual property rights (IPR), the TRIPS waiver and a potential pandemic treaty). We conclude that IPR constrained the affordability and availability of COVID-19 vaccines in ways inadequately addressed by COVAX and a waiver compromise thwarted by political, corporate, and philanthropic interests. While stronger limits to IPR in a pandemic treaty and a reformed International Health Regulations will not resolve structural inequities, they could meaningfully expand LMIC autonomy to protect public health. We urge equity-seeking Global South and North actors to fight for such IPR reforms as small and meaningful steps towards a more equitable global health order. Otherwise, criminally racist 'apartheids' will continue to be the norm when it comes to the distribution of essential health goods during global health emergencies.