Nonlinear and Multidelayed Effects of Meteorological Drivers on Human Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection in Japan.

Japan epidemics human respiratory syncytial virus meteorological drivers transmission dynamics

Journal

Viruses
ISSN: 1999-4915
Titre abrégé: Viruses
Pays: Switzerland
ID NLM: 101509722

Informations de publication

Date de publication:
12 Sep 2023
Historique:
received: 09 08 2023
revised: 07 09 2023
accepted: 11 09 2023
medline: 28 9 2023
pubmed: 28 9 2023
entrez: 28 9 2023
Statut: epublish

Résumé

In this study, we aimed to characterize the nonlinear and multidelayed effects of multiple meteorological drivers on human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV) infection epidemics in Japan. The prefecture-specific weekly time-series of the number of newly confirmed HRSV infection cases and multiple meteorological variables were collected for 47 Japanese prefectures from 1 January 2014 to 31 December 2019. We combined standard time-series generalized linear models with distributed lag nonlinear models to determine the exposure-lag-response association between the incidence relative risks (IRRs) of HRSV infection and its meteorological drivers. Pooling the 2-week cumulative estimates showed that overall high ambient temperatures (22.7 °C at the 75th percentile compared to 16.3 °C) and high relative humidity (76.4% at the 75th percentile compared to 70.4%) were associated with higher HRSV infection incidence (IRR for ambient temperature 1.068, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.056-1.079; IRR for relative humidity 1.045, 95% CI, 1.032-1.059). Precipitation revealed a positive association trend, and for wind speed, clear evidence of a negative association was found. Our findings provide a basic picture of the seasonality of HRSV transmission and its nonlinear association with multiple meteorological drivers in the pre-HRSV-vaccination and pre-coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) era in Japan.

Identifiants

pubmed: 37766320
pii: v15091914
doi: 10.3390/v15091914
pmc: PMC10535838
pii:
doi:

Types de publication

Journal Article

Langues

eng

Sous-ensembles de citation

IM

Subventions

Organisme : The Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research (KAKENHI) of the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS)
ID : 22J23183
Organisme : The Community Medical Research Grant of the Niigata City Medical Association
ID : GC03220213
Organisme : The Tsukada Medical Research Grant
ID : grant number not available
Organisme : The Japan Initiative for Global Research Network on Infectious Diseases (J-GRID) by the Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development (AMED)
ID : 15fm0108009h0001-21wm0125005h0002
Organisme : KAKENHI by the JSPS
ID : 21K10414
Organisme : The Health and Labor Sciences Research Grants, Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, Japan
ID : H30-Shinkougyousei-Shitei-002 and H30-Shinkougyousei-Shitei-004
Organisme : The Niigata Prefecture Coronavirus Infectious Disease Control Research and Human Resources Development Support Fund
ID : grant number not available

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Auteurs

Keita Wagatsuma (K)

Division of International Health (Public Health), Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences, Niigata University, Niigata 951-8510, Japan.
Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Tokyo 102-0083, Japan.

Iain S Koolhof (IS)

College of Health and Medicine, School of Medicine, University of Tasmania, Hobart 7000, Australia.

Reiko Saito (R)

Division of International Health (Public Health), Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences, Niigata University, Niigata 951-8510, Japan.

Classifications MeSH