Nonlinear and Multidelayed Effects of Meteorological Drivers on Human Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection in Japan.
Japan
epidemics
human respiratory syncytial virus
meteorological drivers
transmission dynamics
Journal
Viruses
ISSN: 1999-4915
Titre abrégé: Viruses
Pays: Switzerland
ID NLM: 101509722
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
12 Sep 2023
12 Sep 2023
Historique:
received:
09
08
2023
revised:
07
09
2023
accepted:
11
09
2023
medline:
28
9
2023
pubmed:
28
9
2023
entrez:
28
9
2023
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
In this study, we aimed to characterize the nonlinear and multidelayed effects of multiple meteorological drivers on human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV) infection epidemics in Japan. The prefecture-specific weekly time-series of the number of newly confirmed HRSV infection cases and multiple meteorological variables were collected for 47 Japanese prefectures from 1 January 2014 to 31 December 2019. We combined standard time-series generalized linear models with distributed lag nonlinear models to determine the exposure-lag-response association between the incidence relative risks (IRRs) of HRSV infection and its meteorological drivers. Pooling the 2-week cumulative estimates showed that overall high ambient temperatures (22.7 °C at the 75th percentile compared to 16.3 °C) and high relative humidity (76.4% at the 75th percentile compared to 70.4%) were associated with higher HRSV infection incidence (IRR for ambient temperature 1.068, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.056-1.079; IRR for relative humidity 1.045, 95% CI, 1.032-1.059). Precipitation revealed a positive association trend, and for wind speed, clear evidence of a negative association was found. Our findings provide a basic picture of the seasonality of HRSV transmission and its nonlinear association with multiple meteorological drivers in the pre-HRSV-vaccination and pre-coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) era in Japan.
Identifiants
pubmed: 37766320
pii: v15091914
doi: 10.3390/v15091914
pmc: PMC10535838
pii:
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Subventions
Organisme : The Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research (KAKENHI) of the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS)
ID : 22J23183
Organisme : The Community Medical Research Grant of the Niigata City Medical Association
ID : GC03220213
Organisme : The Tsukada Medical Research Grant
ID : grant number not available
Organisme : The Japan Initiative for Global Research Network on Infectious Diseases (J-GRID) by the Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development (AMED)
ID : 15fm0108009h0001-21wm0125005h0002
Organisme : KAKENHI by the JSPS
ID : 21K10414
Organisme : The Health and Labor Sciences Research Grants, Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, Japan
ID : H30-Shinkougyousei-Shitei-002 and H30-Shinkougyousei-Shitei-004
Organisme : The Niigata Prefecture Coronavirus Infectious Disease Control Research and Human Resources Development Support Fund
ID : grant number not available
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