Comparison of logistic regression with regularized machine learning methods for the prediction of tuberculosis disease in people living with HIV: cross-sectional hospital-based study in Kisumu County, Kenya.

HIV Lasso Ridge regression cross-sectional study logistic regression machine learning prediction tuberculosis

Journal

Research square
Titre abrégé: Res Sq
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 101768035

Informations de publication

Date de publication:
21 Sep 2023
Historique:
medline: 4 10 2023
pubmed: 4 10 2023
entrez: 4 10 2023
Statut: epublish

Résumé

Tuberculosis (TB) is a major public health concern, particularly among people living with the Human immunodeficiency Virus (PLWH). Accurate prediction of TB disease in this population is crucial for early diagnosis and effective treatment. Logistic regression and regularized machine learning methods have been used to predict TB, but their comparative performance in HIV patients remains unclear. The study aims to compare the predictive performance of logistic regression with that of regularized machine learning methods for TB disease in HIV patients. Retrospective analysis of data from HIV patients diagnosed with TB in three hospitals in Kisumu County (JOOTRH, Kisumu sub-county hospital, Lumumba health center) between [dates]. Logistic regression, Lasso, Ridge, Elastic net regression were used to develop predictive models for TB disease. Model performance was evaluated using accuracy, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC). Of the 927 PLWH included in the study, 107 (12.6%) were diagnosed with TB. Being in WHO disease stage III/IV (aOR: 7.13; 95%CI: 3.86-13.33) and having a cough in the last 4 weeks (aOR: 2.34;95%CI: 1.43-3.89) were significant associated with the TB. Logistic regression achieved accuracy of 0.868, and AUC-ROC of 0.744. Elastic net regression also showed good predictive performance with accuracy, and AUC-ROC values of 0.874 and 0.762, respectively. Our results suggest that logistic regression, Lasso, Ridge regression, and Elastic net can all be effective methods for predicting TB disease in HIV patients. These findings may have important implications for the development of accurate and reliable models for TB prediction in HIV patients.

Sections du résumé

Background UNASSIGNED
Tuberculosis (TB) is a major public health concern, particularly among people living with the Human immunodeficiency Virus (PLWH). Accurate prediction of TB disease in this population is crucial for early diagnosis and effective treatment. Logistic regression and regularized machine learning methods have been used to predict TB, but their comparative performance in HIV patients remains unclear. The study aims to compare the predictive performance of logistic regression with that of regularized machine learning methods for TB disease in HIV patients.
Methods UNASSIGNED
Retrospective analysis of data from HIV patients diagnosed with TB in three hospitals in Kisumu County (JOOTRH, Kisumu sub-county hospital, Lumumba health center) between [dates]. Logistic regression, Lasso, Ridge, Elastic net regression were used to develop predictive models for TB disease. Model performance was evaluated using accuracy, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC).
Results UNASSIGNED
Of the 927 PLWH included in the study, 107 (12.6%) were diagnosed with TB. Being in WHO disease stage III/IV (aOR: 7.13; 95%CI: 3.86-13.33) and having a cough in the last 4 weeks (aOR: 2.34;95%CI: 1.43-3.89) were significant associated with the TB. Logistic regression achieved accuracy of 0.868, and AUC-ROC of 0.744. Elastic net regression also showed good predictive performance with accuracy, and AUC-ROC values of 0.874 and 0.762, respectively.
Conclusions UNASSIGNED
Our results suggest that logistic regression, Lasso, Ridge regression, and Elastic net can all be effective methods for predicting TB disease in HIV patients. These findings may have important implications for the development of accurate and reliable models for TB prediction in HIV patients.

Identifiants

pubmed: 37790564
doi: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3354948/v1
pmc: PMC10543507
pii:
doi:

Types de publication

Preprint

Langues

eng

Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts

Competing interests None of the authors expressed any potential conflict of interest.

Auteurs

James Orwa (J)

Department of Population Health, Aga Khan University, Nairobi, Kenya.

Patience Oduor (P)

Institute of Global Health Equity Research, University of Global Health Equity, Kigali, Rwanda.

Douglas Okelloh (D)

Center for Global Health Research, Kenya Medical Research Institute, Kisumu, Kenya.

Dickson Gethi (D)

Center for Global Health Research, Kenya Medical Research Institute, Kisumu, Kenya.

Janet Agaya (J)

Center for Global Health Research, Kenya Medical Research Institute, Kisumu, Kenya.

Albert Okumu (A)

Center for Global Health Research, Kenya Medical Research Institute, Kisumu, Kenya.

Steve Wandiga (S)

Center for Global Health Research, Kenya Medical Research Institute, Kisumu, Kenya.

Classifications MeSH