A novel major accidents evolution model and its application in Chinese industrial accident.

The accident mortality rate of major accidents (MAs) show that China is still in the bottleneck period of accident prevention and control. To further promote the MAs prevention and control, this paper presents a novel major accidents evolution model from the theoretical perspective of information processing (IP). Firstly, based on the safety science paradigm of accident prevention and the emergency management paradigm of accident control, a safety information processing (SIP) process is proposed. Secondly, established the SIP model for different stages of accident prevention and control, which involves danger information processing (DIP), potential hazard information processing (PHIP), risk information processing (RIP), and emergency information processing (EIP). Thirdly, revealed the SIP of various management subject and the failure principle of accident prevention and control, that is, MAs occur under the premise of continuous failures of DIP, PHIP, RIP, and EIP under the social-technical system. Finally, the DPRE-IP model is proposed from the whole evolution path of "danger-potential hazard-risk-accident". To demonstrate the viability of the model, this model is applied to the "6·13" Wenling major explosion accident. The results show that the proposed DPRE-IP model can provide new ideas for the formulation of accident prevention and control measures and accident analysis.

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The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.