Extinction risks and mitigation for a megaherbivore, the giraffe, in a human-influenced landscape under climate change.
Giraffa camelopardalis
demography
global change
individual-based modeling
population dynamics
population viability analysis
Journal
Global change biology
ISSN: 1365-2486
Titre abrégé: Glob Chang Biol
Pays: England
ID NLM: 9888746
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Dec 2023
Dec 2023
Historique:
revised:
20
09
2023
received:
05
07
2023
accepted:
20
09
2023
medline:
7
11
2023
pubmed:
11
10
2023
entrez:
11
10
2023
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Megaherbivores play "outsized" roles in ecosystem functioning but are vulnerable to human impacts such as overhunting, land-use changes, and climate extremes. However, such impacts-and combinations of these impacts-on population dynamics are rarely examined using empirical data. To guide effective conservation actions under increasing global-change pressures, we developed a socially structured individual-based model (IBM) using long-term demographic data from female giraffes (Giraffa camelopardalis) in a human-influenced landscape in northern Tanzania, the Tarangire Ecosystem. This unfenced system includes savanna habitats with a wide gradient of anthropogenic pressures, from national parks, a wildlife ranch and community conservation areas, to unprotected village lands. We then simulated and projected over 50 years how realistic environmental and land-use management changes might affect this metapopulation of female giraffes. Scenarios included: (1) anthropogenic land-use changes including roads and agricultural/urban expansion; (2) reduction or improvement in wildlife law enforcement measures; (3) changes in populations of natural predators and migratory alternative prey; and (4) increases in rainfall as predicted for East Africa. The factor causing the greatest risk of rapid declines in female giraffe abundance in our simulations was a reduction in law enforcement leading to more poaching. Other threats decreased abundances of giraffes, but improving law enforcement in both of the study area's protected areas mitigated these impacts: a 0.01 increase in giraffe survival probability from improved law enforcement mitigated a 25% rise in heavy rainfall events by increasing abundance 19%, and mitigated the expansion of towns and blockage of dispersal movements by increasing abundance 22%. Our IBM enabled us to further quantify fine-scale abundance changes among female giraffe social communities, revealing potential source-sink interactions within the metapopulation. This flexible methodology can be adapted to test additional ecological questions in this landscape, or to model populations of giraffes or other species in different ecosystems.
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
6693-6712Subventions
Organisme : Cincinnati Zoo and Botanical Gardens
Organisme : Columbus Zoo and Aquarium
Organisme : Como Park Zoo and Conservatory
Organisme : European Social Fund
ID : Ramón y Cajal Program RYC2021-033192-I
Organisme : GreaterGood.org
Organisme : Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad
Organisme : Parrotia-Stiftung
Organisme : Roger Williams Park Zoo
Organisme : Sacramento Zoological Society
Organisme : Save the Giraffes
Organisme : Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung
ID : P500PB_206670/1
Organisme : The Living Desert Zoo and Gardens
Organisme : Tierpark Berlin
Organisme : Toronto Zoo
Organisme : Tulsa Zoo Management, Inc.
Organisme : Zoo Miami
Informations de copyright
© 2023 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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