Modelling counterfactual incidence during the transition towards culture-independent diagnostic testing.
Campylobacter, Salmonella, Shigella
Bayesian
FoodNet
Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli, Vibrio
counterfactual modelling
culture-independent diagnostic test
Journal
International journal of epidemiology
ISSN: 1464-3685
Titre abrégé: Int J Epidemiol
Pays: England
ID NLM: 7802871
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
11 Oct 2023
11 Oct 2023
Historique:
received:
22
11
2022
accepted:
20
09
2023
medline:
11
10
2023
pubmed:
11
10
2023
entrez:
11
10
2023
Statut:
aheadofprint
Résumé
Culture-independent diagnostic testing (CIDT) provides rapid results to clinicians and is quickly displacing traditional detection methods. Increased CIDT use and sensitivity likely result in higher case detection but might also obscure infection trends. Severe illness outcomes, such as hospitalization and death, are likely less affected by changes in testing practices and can be used as indicators of the expected case incidence trend had testing methods not changed. Using US Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network data during 1996-2019 and mixed effects quasi-Poisson regression, we estimated the expected yearly incidence for nine enteric pathogens. Removing the effect of CIDT use, CIDT panel testing and culture-confirmation of CIDT testing, the modelled incidence in all but three pathogens (Salmonella, Shigella, STEC O157) was significantly lower than the observed and the upward trend in Campylobacter was reversed from an observed 2.8% yearly increase to a modelled -2.8% yearly decrease (95% credible interval: -4.0, -1.4). Severe outcomes may be useful indicators in evaluating trends in surveillance systems that have undergone a marked change.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
BACKGROUND
Culture-independent diagnostic testing (CIDT) provides rapid results to clinicians and is quickly displacing traditional detection methods. Increased CIDT use and sensitivity likely result in higher case detection but might also obscure infection trends. Severe illness outcomes, such as hospitalization and death, are likely less affected by changes in testing practices and can be used as indicators of the expected case incidence trend had testing methods not changed.
METHODS
METHODS
Using US Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network data during 1996-2019 and mixed effects quasi-Poisson regression, we estimated the expected yearly incidence for nine enteric pathogens.
RESULTS
RESULTS
Removing the effect of CIDT use, CIDT panel testing and culture-confirmation of CIDT testing, the modelled incidence in all but three pathogens (Salmonella, Shigella, STEC O157) was significantly lower than the observed and the upward trend in Campylobacter was reversed from an observed 2.8% yearly increase to a modelled -2.8% yearly decrease (95% credible interval: -4.0, -1.4).
CONCLUSIONS
CONCLUSIONS
Severe outcomes may be useful indicators in evaluating trends in surveillance systems that have undergone a marked change.
Identifiants
pubmed: 37820050
pii: 7308380
doi: 10.1093/ije/dyad133
pii:
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Informations de copyright
Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association 2023.