The survival-incorporated median vs the median in the survivors or in the always-survivors: What are we measuring? and Why?

estimands survival survival-incorporated median survivor average causal effect treatment effect truncation by death

Journal

Statistics in medicine
ISSN: 1097-0258
Titre abrégé: Stat Med
Pays: England
ID NLM: 8215016

Informations de publication

Date de publication:
20 12 2023
Historique:
received: 26 04 2023
accepted: 13 09 2023
medline: 20 11 2023
pubmed: 13 10 2023
entrez: 12 10 2023
Statut: ppublish

Résumé

Many clinical studies evaluate the benefit of a treatment based on both survival and other continuous/ordinal clinical outcomes, such as quality of life scores. In these studies, when subjects die before the follow-up assessment, the clinical outcomes become undefined and are truncated by death. Treating outcomes as "missing" or "censored" due to death can be misleading for treatment effect evaluation. We show that if we use the median in the survivors or in the always-survivors as estimands to summarize clinical outcomes, we may conclude that a trade-off exists between the probability of survival and good clinical outcomes, even in settings where both the probability of survival and the probability of any good clinical outcome are better for one treatment. Therefore, we advocate not always treating death as a mechanism through which clinical outcomes are missing, but rather as part of the outcome measure. To account for the survival status, we describe the survival-incorporated median as an alternative summary measure for outcomes in the presence of death. The survival-incorporated median is the threshold such that 50% of the population is alive with an outcome above that threshold. Through conceptual examples and an application to a prostate cancer treatment study, we show that the survival-incorporated median provides a simple and useful summary measure to inform clinical practice.

Identifiants

pubmed: 37827518
doi: 10.1002/sim.9922
doi:

Types de publication

Journal Article

Langues

eng

Sous-ensembles de citation

IM

Pagination

5479-5490

Subventions

Organisme : NIAID NIH HHS
ID : UM1 AI068634
Pays : United States

Informations de copyright

© 2023 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Références

Petrylak DP, Lara PN, Burch PA, Kohli M, Raghavan D. Docetaxel and estramustine compared with mitoxantrone and prednisone for advanced refractory prostate cancer. N Engl J Med. 2004;351(15):1513-1520.
Shrestha A, Martin C, Burton M, Walters S, Collins K, Wyld L. Quality of life versus length of life considerations in cancer patients: a systematic literature review. Psychooncology. 2019;28(7):1367-1380.
McConnell S, Stuart EA, Devaney B. The truncation-by-death problem: what to do in an experimental evaluation when the outcome is not always defined. Eval Rev. 2008;32(2):157-186.
Imai K. Sharp bounds on the causal effects in randomized experiments with “truncation-by-death”. Stat Probab Lett. 2008;78(2):144-149.
Kurland BF, Johnson LL, Egleston BL, Diehr PH. Longitudinal data with follow-up truncated by death: match the analysis method to research aims. Stat Sci. 2009;24(2):211-222.
Chiba Y, VanderWeele TJ. A simple method for principal strata effects when the outcome has been truncated due to death. Am J Epidemiol. 2011;173(7):745-751.
Robins JM. An analytic method for randomized trials with informative censoring: part 1. Lifetime Data Anal. 1995;1(3):241-254.
Frangakis C, Rubin D. Addressing complications of intention-to-treat analysis in the combined presence of all-or-none treatment-noncompliance and subsequent missing outcomes. Biometrika. 1999;86(2):365-379.
Zhang JL, Rubin DB. Estimation of causal effects via principal stratification when some outcomes are truncated by “death”. J Educ Behav Stat. 2003;28(4):353-368.
Wang L, Zhou XH, Richardson TS. Identification and estimation of causal effects with outcomes truncated by death. Biometrika. 2017;104(3):597-612.
Robins J. A new approach to causal inference in mortality studies with a sustained exposure period-application to control of the healthy worker survivor effect. Math Model. 1986;7(9-12):1393-1512.
Frangakis CE, Rubin DB. Principal stratification in causal inference. Biometrics. 2002;58(1):21-29.
Lachin JM. Worst-rank score analysis with informatively missing observations in clinical trials. Control Clin Trials. 1999;20(5):408-422.
Chen YHJ, Gould AL, Nessly ML. Treatment comparisons for a partially categorical outcome applied to a biomarker with assay limit. Stat Med. 2005;24(2):211-228.
Wang C, Scharfstein DO, Colantuoni E, Girard TD, Yan Y. Inference in randomized trials with death and missingness. Biometrics. 2017;73(2):431-440.
Lok JJ, Bosch RJ, Benson CA, et al. Long-term increase in CD4+ T-cell counts during combination antiretroviral therapy for HIV-1 infection. Aids. 2010;24(12):1867-1876.
ICH Harmonised Guideline E9(R1). Estimands and Sensitivity Analysis in Clinical Trials. 2019.
Weinstein M, Zeckhauser R. Critical ratios and efficient allocation. J Public Econ. 1973;2(2):147-157.
Weinstein MC, Torrance G, McGuire A. QALYs: the basics. Value Health. 2009;12:S5-S9.
Colantuoni E, Scharfstein DO, Wang C, et al. Statistical methods to compare functional outcomes in randomized controlled trials with high mortality. BMJ. 2018;3:j5748.
Girard TD, Kress JP, Fuchs BD, et al. Efficacy and safety of a paired sedation and ventilator weaning protocol for mechanically ventilated patients in intensive care (awakening and breathing controlled trial): a randomised controlled trial. Lancet. 2008;371(9607):126-134.
DREAM Trial Investigators. Effect of ramipril on the incidence of diabetes. N Engl J Med. 2006;355(15):1551-1562.
Felker GM, Maisel AS. A global rank end point for clinical trials in acute heart failure. Circ Heart Fail. 2010;3(5):643-646.
Gilbert PB, Bosch RJ, Hudgens MG. Sensitivity analysis for the assessment of causal vaccine effects on viral load in hiv vaccine trials. Biometrics. 2003;59(3):531-541.
Hayden D, Pauler DK, Schoenfeld D. An estimator for treatment comparisons among survivors in randomized trials. Biometrics. 2005;61(1):305-310.
Egleston BL, Scharfstein DO, Freeman EE, West SK. Causal inference for non-mortality outcomes in the presence of death. Biostatistics. 2007;8(3):526-545.
Shepherd BE, Redman MW, Ankerst DP. Does finasteride affect the severity of prostate cancer? A causal sensitivity analysis. J Am Stat Assoc. 2008;103(484):1392-1404.
Ding P, Geng Z, Yan W, Zhou XH. Identifiability and estimation of causal effects by principal stratification with outcomes truncated by death. J Am Stat Assoc. 2011;106(496):1578-1591.
Tchetgen Tchetgen EJ. Identification and estimation of survivor average causal effects. Stat Med. 2014;33(21):3601-3628.
Stuart EA, Jo B. Assessing the sensitivity of methods for estimating principal causal effects. Stat Methods Med Res. 2015;24(6):657-674.
Robins JM, Rotnitzky A, Zhao LP. Analysis of semiparametric regression models for repeated outcomes in the presence of missing data. J Am Stat Assoc. 1995;90(429):106-121.
Robins JM, Finkelstein DM. Correcting for noncompliance and dependent censoring in an aids clinical trial with inverse probability of censoring weighted (ipcw) log-rank tests. Biometrics. 2000;56(3):779-788.
Efron B, Tibshirani RJ. An Introduction to the Bootstrap. New York: Chapman and Hall/CRC; 1994.
Stensrud MJ, Young JG, Didelez V, Robins JM, Hernán MA. Separable effects for causal inference in the presence of competing events. J Am Stat Assoc. 2020;117(537):175-183.
VanderWeele T. Explanation in Causal Inference: Methods for Mediation and Interaction. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press; 2015.
Lok JJ, Bosch RJ. Causal organic indirect and direct effects: closer to the original approach to mediation analysis, with a product method for binary mediators. Epidemiology. 2021;32(3):412-420.
Robins JM, Hernán MÁ, Brumback B. Marginal structural models and causal inference in epidemiology. Epidemiology. 2000;11(5):550-560.
Hogan JW, Lee JY. Marginal structural quantile models for longitudinal observational studies with time-varying treatment. Stat Sin. 2004;14(3):927-944.
Firpo S. Efficient semiparametric estimation of quantile treatment effects. Econometrica. 2007;75(1):259-276.
LaLonde RJ. The promise of public sector-sponsored training programs. J Econ Perspect. 1995;9(2):149-168.

Auteurs

Qingyan Xiang (Q)

Department of Biostatistics, Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.

Ronald J Bosch (RJ)

Center for Biostatistics in AIDS Research, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.

Judith J Lok (JJ)

Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.

Articles similaires

[Redispensing of expensive oral anticancer medicines: a practical application].

Lisanne N van Merendonk, Kübra Akgöl, Bastiaan Nuijen
1.00
Humans Antineoplastic Agents Administration, Oral Drug Costs Counterfeit Drugs

Smoking Cessation and Incident Cardiovascular Disease.

Jun Hwan Cho, Seung Yong Shin, Hoseob Kim et al.
1.00
Humans Male Smoking Cessation Cardiovascular Diseases Female
Humans United States Aged Cross-Sectional Studies Medicare Part C
1.00
Humans Yoga Low Back Pain Female Male

Classifications MeSH