Validation in type 2 diabetes of a metabolomic signature of all-cause mortality.

metabolomics mortality prognostic models risk prediction model type 2 diabetes validation

Journal

Diabetes/metabolism research and reviews
ISSN: 1520-7560
Titre abrégé: Diabetes Metab Res Rev
Pays: England
ID NLM: 100883450

Informations de publication

Date de publication:
15 Oct 2023
Historique:
revised: 29 08 2023
received: 23 01 2023
accepted: 25 09 2023
medline: 15 10 2023
pubmed: 15 10 2023
entrez: 15 10 2023
Statut: aheadofprint

Résumé

Mortality in type 2 diabetes is twice that of the normoglycemic population. Unravelling biomarkers that identify high-risk patients for referral to the most aggressive and costly prevention strategies is needed. To validate in type 2 diabetes the association with all-cause mortality of a 14-metabolite score (14-MS) previously reported in the general population and whether this score can be used to improve well-established mortality prediction models. This is a sub-study consisting of 600 patients from the "Sapienza University Mortality and Morbidity Event Rate" (SUMMER) study in diabetes, a prospective multicentre investigation on all-cause mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes. Metabolic biomarkers were quantified from serum samples using high-throughput proton nuclear magnetic resonance metabolomics. In type 2 diabetes, the 14-MS showed a significant (p < 0.0001) association with mortality, which was lower (p < 0.0001) than that reported in the general population. This difference was mainly due to two metabolites (histidine and ratio of polyunsaturated fatty acids to total fatty acids) with an effect size that was significantly (p = 0.01) lower in diabetes than in the general population. A parsimonious 12-MS (i.e. lacking the 2 metabolites mentioned above) improved patient discrimination and classification of two well-established mortality prediction models (p < 0.0001 for all measures). The metabolomic signature of mortality in the general population is only partially effective in type 2 diabetes. Prediction markers developed and validated in the general population must be revalidated if they are to be used in patients with diabetes.

Identifiants

pubmed: 37839040
doi: 10.1002/dmrr.3734
doi:

Types de publication

Journal Article

Langues

eng

Sous-ensembles de citation

IM

Pagination

e3734

Subventions

Organisme : Ministero della Salute
Organisme : Sapienza Università di Roma

Informations de copyright

© 2023 The Authors. Diabetes/Metabolism Research and Reviews published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Références

Saeedi P, Salpea P, Karuranga S, et al. Mortality attributable to diabetes in 20-79 years old adults, 2019 estimates: results from the international diabetes federation diabetes Atlas, 9. Diabetes Res Clin Pract. 2020;162:108086. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.diabres.2020.108086
NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC). Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: a pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4.4 million participants. Lancet. 2016;387(10027):1513-1530. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(16)00618-8
Welsh P, Rankin N, Li Q, et al. Circulating amino acids and the risk of macrovascular, microvascular and mortality outcomes in individuals with type 2 diabetes: results from the ADVANCE trial. Diabetologia. 2018;61(7):1581-1591. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00125-018-4619-x
Ottosson F, Smith E, Fernandez C, Melander O. Plasma metabolites associate with all- cause mortality in individuals with type 2 diabetes. Metabolites. 2020:10.
Harris K, Oshima M, Sattar N, et al. Plasma fatty acids and the risk of vascular disease and mortality outcomes in individuals with type 2 diabetes: results from the ADVANCE study. Diabetologia. 2020;63(8):1637-1647. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00125-020-05162-z
Winther SA, Øllgaard JC, Hansen TW, et al. Plasma trimethylamine N-oxide and its metabolic precursors and risk of mortality, cardiovascular and renal disease in individuals with type 2-diabetes and albuminuria. PLoS One. 2021;16(3):e0244402. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0244402
Scarale MG, Mastroianno M, Prehn C, et al. Circulating metabolites associate with and improve the prediction of all-cause mortality in type 2 Diabetes. Diabetes. 2022;71(6):1363-1370. https://doi.org/10.2337/db22-0095
Deelen J, Kettunen J, Fischer K, et al. A metabolic profile of all-cause mortality risk identified in an observational study of 44,168 individuals. Nat Commun. 2019;10(1):3346. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-11311-9
De Cosmo S, Copetti M, Lamacchia O, et al. Development and validation of a predicting model of all-cause mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes. Diabetes Care. 2013;36(9):2830-2835. https://doi.org/10.2337/dc12-1906
Copetti M, Shah H, Fontana A, et al. Estimation of mortality risk in type2 diabetic patients (ENFORCE): an inexpensive and parsimonious prediction model. J Clin Endocrinol Metab. 2019;104(10):4900-4908. https://doi.org/10.1210/jc.2019-00215
Copetti M, Biancalana E, Fontana A, et al. All-cause mortality prediction models in type 2 diabetes: applicability in the early stage of disease. Acta Diabetol. 2021;58(10):1425-1428. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00592-021-01746-2
Basu S, Sussman JB, Berkowitz SA, et al. Validation of risk equations for complications of type 2 diabetes (RECODe) using individual participant data from diverse longitudinal cohorts in the U.S. Diabetes Care. 2018;41(3):586-595. https://doi.org/10.2337/dc17-2002
Basu S, Sussman JB, Berkowitz SA, Hayward RA, Yudkin JS. Development and validation of risk equations for complications of type 2 diabetes (RECODe) using individual participant data from randomised trials. Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol. 2017;5(10):788-798. https://doi.org/10.1016/s2213-8587(17)30221-8
Welsh P, Rankin N, Li Q, et al. Circulating amino acids and the risk of macrovascular, microvascular and mortality outcomes in individuals with type 2 diabetes: results from the ADVANCE trial. Diabetologia. 2018;61(7):1581-1591. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00125-018-4619-x
Ahola-Olli AV, Mustelin L, Kalimeri M, et al. Circulating metabolites and the risk of type 2 diabetes: a prospective study of 11,896 young adults from four Finnish cohorts. Diabetologia. 2019;62(12):2298-2309. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00125-019-05001-w
Seah JYH, Hong Y, Cichońska A, et al. Circulating metabolic biomarkers are consistently associated with type 2 diabetes risk in Asian and European populations. J Clin Endocrinol Metab. 2022;107(7):e2751-e2761. https://doi.org/10.1210/clinem/dgac212
Barchetta I, Capoccia D, Baroni MG, et al. SUMMER study in diabetes group. The “Sapienza university mortality and morbidity event rate (SUMMER) study in diabetes”: study protocol. Nutr Metab Cardiovasc Dis. 2016;26(2):103-108. Epub 2015 Oct 9. PMID: 26698225. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.numecd.2015.09.009
Soininen P, Kangas AJ, Würtz P, Suna T, Ala-Korpela M. Quantitative serum nuclear magnetic resonance metabolomics in cardiovascular epidemiology and genetics. Circ Cardiovasc Genet. 2015;8(1):192-206. PMID: 25691689. https://doi.org/10.1161/CIRCGENETICS.114.000216
Würtz P, Kangas AJ, Soininen P, Lawlor DA, Davey Smith G, Ala-Korpela M. Quantitative serum nuclear magnetic resonance metabolomics in large-scale epidemiology: a primer on -Omic technologies. Am J Epidemiol. 2017;186(9):1084-1096. PMID: 29106475; PMCID: PMC5860146. https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwx016
Uno H, Tian L, Cai T, Kohane IS, Wei LJ. A unified inference procedure for a class of measures to assess improvement in risk prediction systems with survival data. Stat Med. 2013;32(14):2430-2442. Epub 2012 Oct 5. PMID: 23037800; PMCID: PMC3734387. https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.5647
Copetti M, Baroni GM, Buzzetti R, et al. Supplemental material. Figshare. J Contrib. 2022. https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.21640973.v4
Pencina MJ, D'Agostino RB, Sr, D'Agostino RB, Jr, Vasan RS. Evaluating the added predictive ability of a new marker: from area under the ROC curve to reclassification and beyond. Stat Med. 2008;27(2):157-172. discussion 207-12. PMID: 17569110. https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.2929
Pencina MJ, D'Agostino RB, Sr, Steyerberg EW. Extensions of net reclassification improvement calculations to measure usefulness of new biomarkers. Stat Med. 2011;30(1):11-21. Epub 2010 Nov 5. PMID: 21204120; PMCID: PMC3341973. https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.4085
Goff DC, Jr, Lloyd-Jones DM, Bennett G, et al. 2013 ACC/AHA guideline on the assessment of cardiovascular risk: a report of the American college of cardiology/American heart association task force on practice guidelines. J Am Coll Cardiol. 2014;63(25 Pt B):2935-2959. Epub 2013 Nov 12. Erratum in: J Am Coll Cardiol. 2014 Jul 1;63(25 Pt B):3026. PMID: 24239921; PMCID: PMC4700825. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jacc.2013.11.005
Cook NR. Use and misuse of the receiver operating characteristic curve in risk prediction. Circulation. 2007;115(7):928-935. PMID: 17309939. https://doi.org/10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.106.672402

Auteurs

Massimiliano Copetti (M)

Fondazione IRCCS Casa Sollievo della Sofferenza, Unit of Biostatistics, San Giovanni Rotondo, Italy.

Marco Giorgio Baroni (MG)

Department of Clinical Medicine, Public Health, Life and Environmental Sciences (MeSVA), University of L'Aquila, L'Aquila, Italy.
Neuroendocrinology and Metabolic Diseases, IRCCS Neuromed, Pozzilli, Italy.

Raffaella Buzzetti (R)

Department of Experimental Medicine, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy.

Maria Gisella Cavallo (MG)

Department of Experimental Medicine, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy.

Efiso Cossu (E)

Department of Medical Sciences and Public Health, University of Cagliari, Cagliari, Italy.

Paola D'Angelo (P)

Department of Clinical Medicine and Health Service Integration, Diabetology and Nutrition Unit, Sandro Pertini Hospital - aslrm2, Rome, Italy.

Salvatore De Cosmo (S)

Department of Medicine, Fondazione IRCCS Casa Sollievo della Sofferenza, San Giovanni Rotondo, Italy.

Frida Leonetti (F)

Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences and Biotechnologies, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy.

Susanna Morano (S)

Department of Experimental Medicine, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy.

Lelio Morviducci (L)

Unit of Diabetology, Santo Spirito Hospital - ASL RM1, Rome, Italy.

Nicola Napoli (N)

Unit of Endocrinology and Diabetes, Department of Medicine, Campus Bio-medico University of Rome, Rome, Italy.

Sabrina Prudente (S)

Fondazione IRCCS Casa Sollievo della Sofferenza, Research Unit of Metabolic and Cardiovascular diseases, San Giovanni Rotondo, Italy.

Giuseppe Pugliese (G)

Department of Clinical and Molecular Medicine, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy.

Antonio Fernando Savino (AF)

Fondazione IRCCS Casa Sollievo della Sofferenza, Laboratory of Clinical Chemistry, San Giovanni Rotondo, Italy.

Vincenzo Trischitta (V)

Department of Experimental Medicine, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy.
Fondazione IRCCS Casa Sollievo della Sofferenza, Research Unit of Diabetes and Endocrine Diseases, San Giovanni Rotondo, Italy.

Classifications MeSH