Multi-centric study for development and validation of a CT head rule for mild traumatic brain injury in direct oral anticoagulants: the HERO-M nomogram.
Anticoagulation
Brain injury
Trauma
Journal
BMC emergency medicine
ISSN: 1471-227X
Titre abrégé: BMC Emerg Med
Pays: England
ID NLM: 100968543
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
15 10 2023
15 10 2023
Historique:
received:
20
12
2022
accepted:
08
09
2023
medline:
23
10
2023
pubmed:
16
10
2023
entrez:
15
10
2023
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Nomograms are easy-to-handle clinical tools which can help in estimating the risk of adverse outcome in certain population. This multi-center study aims to create and validate a simple and usable clinical prediction nomogram for individual risk of post-traumatic Intracranial Hemorrhage (ICH) after Mild Traumatic Brain Injury (MTBI) in patients treated with Direct Oral Anticoagulants (DOACs). From January 1, 2016 to December 31, 2019, all patients on DOACs evaluated for an MTBI in five Italian Emergency Departments were enrolled. A training set to develop the nomogram and a test set for validation were identified. The predictive ability of the nomogram was assessed using AUROC, calibration plot, and decision curve analysis. Of the 1425 patients in DOACs in the study cohort, 934 (65.5%) were included in the training set and 491 (34.5%) in the test set. Overall, the rate of post-traumatic ICH was 6.9% (7.0% training and 6.9% test set). In a multivariate analysis, major trauma dynamic (OR: 2.73, p = 0.016), post-traumatic loss of consciousness (OR: 3.78, p = 0.001), post-traumatic amnesia (OR: 4.15, p < 0.001), GCS < 15 (OR: 3.00, p < 0.001), visible trauma above the clavicles (OR: 3. 44, p < 0.001), a post-traumatic headache (OR: 2.71, p = 0.032), a previous history of neurosurgery (OR: 7.40, p < 0.001), and post-traumatic vomiting (OR: 3.94, p = 0.008) were independent risk factors for ICH. The nomogram demonstrated a good ability to predict the risk of ICH (AUROC: 0.803; CI95% 0.721-0.884), and its clinical application showed a net clinical benefit always superior to performing CT on all patients. The Hemorrhage Estimate Risk in Oral anticoagulation for Mild head trauma (HERO-M) nomogram was able to predict post-traumatic ICH and can be easily applied in the Emergency Department (ED).
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
Nomograms are easy-to-handle clinical tools which can help in estimating the risk of adverse outcome in certain population. This multi-center study aims to create and validate a simple and usable clinical prediction nomogram for individual risk of post-traumatic Intracranial Hemorrhage (ICH) after Mild Traumatic Brain Injury (MTBI) in patients treated with Direct Oral Anticoagulants (DOACs).
METHODS
From January 1, 2016 to December 31, 2019, all patients on DOACs evaluated for an MTBI in five Italian Emergency Departments were enrolled. A training set to develop the nomogram and a test set for validation were identified. The predictive ability of the nomogram was assessed using AUROC, calibration plot, and decision curve analysis.
RESULTS
Of the 1425 patients in DOACs in the study cohort, 934 (65.5%) were included in the training set and 491 (34.5%) in the test set. Overall, the rate of post-traumatic ICH was 6.9% (7.0% training and 6.9% test set). In a multivariate analysis, major trauma dynamic (OR: 2.73, p = 0.016), post-traumatic loss of consciousness (OR: 3.78, p = 0.001), post-traumatic amnesia (OR: 4.15, p < 0.001), GCS < 15 (OR: 3.00, p < 0.001), visible trauma above the clavicles (OR: 3. 44, p < 0.001), a post-traumatic headache (OR: 2.71, p = 0.032), a previous history of neurosurgery (OR: 7.40, p < 0.001), and post-traumatic vomiting (OR: 3.94, p = 0.008) were independent risk factors for ICH. The nomogram demonstrated a good ability to predict the risk of ICH (AUROC: 0.803; CI95% 0.721-0.884), and its clinical application showed a net clinical benefit always superior to performing CT on all patients.
CONCLUSION
The Hemorrhage Estimate Risk in Oral anticoagulation for Mild head trauma (HERO-M) nomogram was able to predict post-traumatic ICH and can be easily applied in the Emergency Department (ED).
Identifiants
pubmed: 37840139
doi: 10.1186/s12873-023-00884-w
pii: 10.1186/s12873-023-00884-w
pmc: PMC10578033
doi:
Substances chimiques
Anticoagulants
0
Types de publication
Multicenter Study
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
122Informations de copyright
© 2023. BioMed Central Ltd., part of Springer Nature.
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