Competing-risks model for predicting the prognostic value of lymph nodes in medullary thyroid carcinoma.
Journal
PloS one
ISSN: 1932-6203
Titre abrégé: PLoS One
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 101285081
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
2023
2023
Historique:
received:
14
03
2023
accepted:
15
09
2023
medline:
23
10
2023
pubmed:
16
10
2023
entrez:
16
10
2023
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC) is an infrequent form malignant tumor with a poor prognosis. Because of the influence of competitive risk, there may suffer from bias in the analysis of prognostic factors of MTC. By extracting the data of patients diagnosed with MTC registered in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database from 1998 to 2016, we established the Cox proportional-hazards and competing-risks model to retrospectively analyze the impact of related factors on lymph nodes statistically. A total of 2,435 patients were included in the analysis, of which 198 died of MTC. The results of the multifactor competing-risk model showed that the number of total lymph nodes (19-89), positive lymph nodes (1-10,11-75) and positive lymph node ratio (25%-53%,>54%), age (46-60,>61), chemotherapy, mode of radiotherapy (others), tumor size(2-4cm,>4cm), number of lesions greater than 1 were poor prognostic factors for MTC. For the number of total lymph nodes, unlike the multivariate Cox proportional-hazards model results, we found that it became an independent risk factor after excluding competitive risk factors. Competitive risk factors have little effect on the number of positive lymph nodes. For the proportion of positive lymph nodes, we found that after excluding competitive risk factors, the Cox proportional-hazards model overestimates its impact on prognosis. The competitive risk model is often more accurate in analyzing the effects of prognostic factors. After excluding the competitive risk, the number of lymph nodes, the number of positive and the positive proportion are the poor prognostic factors of medullary thyroid cancer, which can help clinicians more accurately evaluate the prognosis of patients with medullary thyroid cancer and provide a reference for treatment decision-making.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
Medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC) is an infrequent form malignant tumor with a poor prognosis. Because of the influence of competitive risk, there may suffer from bias in the analysis of prognostic factors of MTC.
METHODS
By extracting the data of patients diagnosed with MTC registered in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database from 1998 to 2016, we established the Cox proportional-hazards and competing-risks model to retrospectively analyze the impact of related factors on lymph nodes statistically.
RESULTS
A total of 2,435 patients were included in the analysis, of which 198 died of MTC. The results of the multifactor competing-risk model showed that the number of total lymph nodes (19-89), positive lymph nodes (1-10,11-75) and positive lymph node ratio (25%-53%,>54%), age (46-60,>61), chemotherapy, mode of radiotherapy (others), tumor size(2-4cm,>4cm), number of lesions greater than 1 were poor prognostic factors for MTC. For the number of total lymph nodes, unlike the multivariate Cox proportional-hazards model results, we found that it became an independent risk factor after excluding competitive risk factors. Competitive risk factors have little effect on the number of positive lymph nodes. For the proportion of positive lymph nodes, we found that after excluding competitive risk factors, the Cox proportional-hazards model overestimates its impact on prognosis. The competitive risk model is often more accurate in analyzing the effects of prognostic factors.
CONCLUSIONS
After excluding the competitive risk, the number of lymph nodes, the number of positive and the positive proportion are the poor prognostic factors of medullary thyroid cancer, which can help clinicians more accurately evaluate the prognosis of patients with medullary thyroid cancer and provide a reference for treatment decision-making.
Identifiants
pubmed: 37844021
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0292488
pii: PONE-D-23-07584
pmc: PMC10578593
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
e0292488Informations de copyright
Copyright: © 2023 Shang et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
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