Antigenic drift and subtype interference shape A(H3N2) epidemic dynamics in the United States.
Journal
medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences
Titre abrégé: medRxiv
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 101767986
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
03 Oct 2023
03 Oct 2023
Historique:
pubmed:
24
10
2023
medline:
24
10
2023
entrez:
24
10
2023
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Influenza viruses continually evolve new antigenic variants, through mutations in epitopes of their major surface proteins, hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA). Antigenic drift potentiates the reinfection of previously infected individuals, but the contribution of this process to variability in annual epidemics is not well understood. Here we link influenza A(H3N2) virus evolution to regional epidemic dynamics in the United States during 1997-2019. We integrate phenotypic measures of HA antigenic drift and sequence-based measures of HA and NA fitness to infer antigenic and genetic distances between viruses circulating in successive seasons. We estimate the magnitude, severity, timing, transmission rate, age-specific patterns, and subtype dominance of each regional outbreak and find that genetic distance based on broad sets of epitope sites is the strongest evolutionary predictor of A(H3N2) virus epidemiology. Increased HA and NA epitope distance between seasons correlates with larger, more intense epidemics, higher transmission, greater A(H3N2) subtype dominance, and a greater proportion of cases in adults relative to children, consistent with increased population susceptibility. Based on random forest models, A(H1N1) incidence impacts A(H3N2) epidemics to a greater extent than viral evolution, suggesting that subtype interference is a major driver of influenza A virus infection dynamics, presumably via heterosubtypic cross-immunity.
Identifiants
pubmed: 37873362
doi: 10.1101/2023.10.02.23296453
pmc: PMC10593063
pii:
doi:
Types de publication
Preprint
Langues
eng
Subventions
Organisme : NIAID NIH HHS
ID : F31 AI140714
Pays : United States
Organisme : Arthritis Research UK
ID : FC001030
Pays : United Kingdom
Organisme : NIGMS NIH HHS
ID : R35 GM119774
Pays : United States
Organisme : NIAID NIH HHS
ID : R01 AI127893
Pays : United States
Organisme : NIAID NIH HHS
ID : 75N93021C00014
Pays : United States
Organisme : Wellcome Trust
Pays : United Kingdom
Organisme : NIAID NIH HHS
ID : 75N93019C00051
Pays : United States
Organisme : NIAID NIH HHS
ID : R01 AI165821
Pays : United States
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