No Excess Total Mortality in Italy in the First Semester of 2023 at All Ages and in the Working Age Population.
Journal
La Medicina del lavoro
ISSN: 0025-7818
Titre abrégé: Med Lav
Pays: Italy
ID NLM: 0401176
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
24 Oct 2023
24 Oct 2023
Historique:
received:
09
10
2023
accepted:
12
10
2023
medline:
26
10
2023
pubmed:
25
10
2023
entrez:
25
10
2023
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Italy experienced a sustained excess in total mortality between March 2020 and December 2022, resulting in approximately 226,000 excess deaths. This study extends the estimate of excess mortality in the country until June 2023, evaluating the persistence of excess mortality. We used mortality and population data from 2011 to 2019 to establish a baseline for expected deaths during the pandemic. Over-dispersed Poisson regression models were employed, stratified by sex, to predict expected deaths. These models included calendar year, age group, and a smoothed function for the day of the year as predictors. Excess mortality was then calculated for all ages and working ages (25-64 years). From January to June 2023, we found a reduction in the number of deaths compared to the expected ones: 6,933 fewer deaths across all age groups and 1,768 fewer deaths in the working age category. This corresponds to a 2.1% and 5.2% decrease in mortality, respectively. The excess mortality observed in Italy from March to December 2022 was no longer observed in the first six months of 2023.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
BACKGROUND
Italy experienced a sustained excess in total mortality between March 2020 and December 2022, resulting in approximately 226,000 excess deaths. This study extends the estimate of excess mortality in the country until June 2023, evaluating the persistence of excess mortality.
METHODS
METHODS
We used mortality and population data from 2011 to 2019 to establish a baseline for expected deaths during the pandemic. Over-dispersed Poisson regression models were employed, stratified by sex, to predict expected deaths. These models included calendar year, age group, and a smoothed function for the day of the year as predictors. Excess mortality was then calculated for all ages and working ages (25-64 years).
RESULTS
RESULTS
From January to June 2023, we found a reduction in the number of deaths compared to the expected ones: 6,933 fewer deaths across all age groups and 1,768 fewer deaths in the working age category. This corresponds to a 2.1% and 5.2% decrease in mortality, respectively.
CONCLUSIONS
CONCLUSIONS
The excess mortality observed in Italy from March to December 2022 was no longer observed in the first six months of 2023.
Identifiants
pubmed: 37878253
doi: 10.23749/mdl.v114i5.15275
pmc: PMC10627104
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
e2023050Références
Med Lav. 2022 Oct 24;113(5):e2022046
pubmed: 36282028
Int J Epidemiol. 2023 Sep 25;:
pubmed: 37743848
Lancet. 2023 Sep 23;402(10407):1037-1038
pubmed: 37634521
Med Lav. 2023 Jun 12;114(3):e2023028
pubmed: 37309878
Eur J Epidemiol. 2023 Sep 8;:
pubmed: 37684387
BMJ. 2022 Feb 4;376:o285
pubmed: 35121613
Eur J Epidemiol. 2023 Apr 12;:
pubmed: 37043153